1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. PROV vs NEB
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Providence Friars vs Nebraska Cornhuskers

Mohegan Sun Arena · Neutral site
#52PROVProvidence
vs
#27NEBNebraska
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PROVThis seasonNEB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEB 81–75 · win probability NEB 70%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

PROV 1, NEB 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NEBBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PROV 16.7%, NEB 14.5%. Forced: PROV 13.1%, NEB 18.9%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: PROV plays 74.2 a game (10th fastest), NEB 67.3 (267th). Faster games mean more points
NEBSmall
Three-pointers
PROV hits 36.4% and allows 35.3%; NEB hits 35.5% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 40.5% and 51.1% of their shots
NEBSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: PROV 55.0 and allows 51.4; NEB 55.5 and allows 48.1
NEBSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PROV 13%, NEB 48%. Transfers in: PROV 8, NEB 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
PROVSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: PROV 36.7, NEB 26.2. Allowed: PROV 32.7, NEB 25.1
Even
NEB offense vs PROV defense
Offense 43rd of 366 against a defense 81st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
PROV has played the 31st-hardest schedule, NEB the 59th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
PROV offense vs NEB defense
Offense 35th of 366 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PROV 31.7%, NEB 26.7%. Defensive: PROV 69.2%, NEB 72.6%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NEB -6.0—
Total—156.0—
Projected score—PROV 75 · NEB 81

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNEB -3.4—
1H total72.9—
1H projected scorePROV 34.7 · NEB 38.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Nebraska has the better starters

Position by position: Providence 0, Nebraska 2, even 3
ProvidenceBetterNebraska
G R. Sabol TR18.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66
NEBSmall
G T. Leonhardt TR12 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83
G M. Mack TR13.6 pts · 3 reb · 4.1 ast Score 80
NEBSmall
F P. Sandfort18.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 97
G D. Vanterpool TR15.2 pts · 6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89
Even
F B. Kapke TR10.6 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77
G M. Byrd TR10.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 90
Even
F S. Orme TR12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 86
G R. Mela9.9 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 81
Even
F D. Wilkinson TR14.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 93
ProvidenceBetterNebraska
PROV offense35th of 366 · +5.2
Even
NEB defense23rd of 366 · +5.1
PROV defense81st of 366 · +0.3
Even
NEB offense43rd of 366 · +4.6
Backcourt+8.2 · 5 players
PROVBig
Backcourt+2.0 · 1 player
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+13.0 · 4 players
Bench+4.2 · 4 players
PROVSmall
Bench+1.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPROV betterNEB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Providence
Guards
R. Sabol37 min · TRM. Mack32 min · TRD. Vanterpool32 min · TRM. Byrd28 min · TRR. Mela26 minG. Hightower10 min · TR
Forwards
A. Page23 min · TRJ. Bannarbie16 min · TRJ. BardwellNewC. WaltersNewL. MarangonNew
Centers
S. Aletan26 min · TR
Nebraska
Guards
T. Leonhardt35 min · TRC. Jacobsen20 minT. DeGourville19 min · TRC. Essegian14 minJ. LanierNewC. RiceNew
Forwards
P. Sandfort34 minB. Kapke27 min · TRS. Orme26 min · TRD. Wilkinson25 min · TRB. Frager24 minK. Betts6 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PROVNEB
Scoring
85.3 #15Points per game77.0 #116
1.15 #58Points per possession1.15 #61
74.2 #10Pace (possessions)67.3 #267
Shooting
55.0 #37Effective FG%55.5 #28
36.4 #453-point %35.5 #91
40.5 #1573-point attempt rate51.1 #9
36.7 #138Free throw rate26.2 #356
Possessions
16.7 #174Turnover rate14.5 #44
31.7 #135Offensive rebound rate26.7 #306
14.0 #146Assists per game18.0 #10
Defense
84.0 #356Points allowed66.1 #14
1.13 #292Points allowed per possession0.98 #13
51.4 #179Opponent effective FG%48.1 #40
35.3 #265Opponent 3-point %30.5 #19
13.1 #352Turnovers forced18.9 #54
69.2 #195Defensive rebound rate72.6 #47
5.4 #313Steals per game7.1 #112
3.9 #86Blocks per game2.5 #303
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Providence

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ St John's72–85
  • Wvs Butler91–81
  • L@ Georgetown79–80
  • Lvs Marquette56–78
  • W@ Creighton79–76

A week or more of rest.

Nebraska

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa71–77
  • Wvs Vanderbilt74–72
  • Wvs Troy76–47
  • Lvs Purdue58–74
  • Wvs Iowa84–75

A week or more of rest.