1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. DEN @ UCR
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Denver Pioneers at UC Riverside Highlanders

SRC Arena · at UC Riverside
#263DENDenver
@
#281UCRUC Riverside
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DENThis seasonUCR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCR 78–77 · win probability UCR 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 4, UCR 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DENBig
DEN offense vs UCR defense
Offense 184th of 366 against a defense 296th, on the model’s ratings
DENSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DEN 14.2%, UCR 19.0%. Forced: DEN 13.0%, UCR 15.5%
UCRSmall
UCR offense vs DEN defense
Offense 265th of 366 against a defense 337th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DEN has played the 249th-hardest schedule, UCR the 182nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DENSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: DEN 53.6 and allows 56.0; UCR 48.9 and allows 52.7
UCRSmall
Home court
UCR at home. This season: UCR 0-0 at home, DEN 0-0 away
DENSmall
Three-pointers
DEN hits 36.8% and allows 36.7%; UCR hits 31.6% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 38.6% and 38.3% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: DEN plays 69.4 a game (151st fastest), UCR 71.0 (74th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DEN 29.8%, UCR 27.8%. Defensive: DEN 67.2%, UCR 70.0%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DEN 34.1, UCR 35.0. Allowed: DEN 36.8, UCR 40.9
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DEN 27%, UCR 21%. Transfers in: DEN 6, UCR 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCR -1.1—
Total—154.4—
Projected score—DEN 76.7 · UCR 77.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCR -0.5—
1H total72.2—
1H projected scoreDEN 35.8 · UCR 36.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UC Riverside has the better starters

Position by position: Denver 1, UC Riverside 2, even 2
DenverBetterUC Riverside
G C. Johnson19.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73
DENBig
G D. Perteete6.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31
G K. Martin TR5.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24
Even
G J. Evans TR5.8 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25
G C. Hyland TR5 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 20
UCRSmall
G B. Waller4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37
F J. Rogers TR5.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 27
UCRBig
G D. Malcolm TR5.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 87
F S. Wysocki5.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 14
Even
F D. Washington TR2.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 0
DenverBetterUC Riverside
DEN offense184th of 366 · -5.7
DENSmall
UCR defense296th of 366 · -7.4
DEN defense337th of 366 · -8.9
UCRSmall
UCR offense265th of 366 · -8.1
Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-2.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players
UCRSmall
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
Bench-2.4 · 3 players
UCRSmall
Bench+0.3 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestDEN betterUCR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Denver
Guards
C. Johnson36 minK. Martin16 min · TRC. Hyland15 min · TRT. Cady11 min · TRL. ThreattNewJ. NelsonNew
Forwards
J. Rogers27 min · TRS. Wysocki19 minS. Mahoney5 min · TRH. BatesNewC. DimmockNewO. Wickstrom StumerNew
Centers
B. Mbengue9 min · TR
UC Riverside
Guards
D. Perteete28 minJ. Evans15 min · TRB. Waller14 minD. Malcolm14 min · TRT. Duckett7 min · TRE. ReaganNew
Forwards
D. Washington11 min · TRT. Parrish-TillmanNewA. McKinneyNewJ. MajokNew
Centers
A. Oyeadier2 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DENUCR
Scoring
80.3 #61Points per game71.6 #258
1.16 #53Points per possession1.01 #317
69.4 #151Pace (possessions)71.0 #74
Shooting
53.6 #79Effective FG%48.9 #291
36.8 #323-point %31.6 #301
38.6 #1993-point attempt rate38.3 #203
34.1 #203Free throw rate35.0 #177
Possessions
14.2 #30Turnover rate19.0 #321
29.8 #213Offensive rebound rate27.8 #275
11.2 #327Assists per game12.3 #262
Defense
84.0 #357Points allowed79.1 #303
1.21 #360Points allowed per possession1.11 #256
56.0 #344Opponent effective FG%52.7 #252
36.7 #338Opponent 3-point %33.5 #159
13.0 #355Turnovers forced15.5 #250
67.2 #291Defensive rebound rate70.0 #159
4.5 #356Steals per game5.1 #325
1.9 #348Blocks per game4.1 #67
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Denver

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs North Dakota67–83
  • L@ Oral Roberts80–102
  • Wvs St Thomas82–80
  • Wvs South Dakota90–70
  • L@ Omaha76–83

A week or more of rest.

UC Riverside

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Hawai'i74–93
  • Wvs CSU Northridge95–84
  • L@ Santa Barbara59–70
  • Lvs UC Davis73–78
  • Wvs Bakersfield93–65

A week or more of rest.