UC Riverside Highlanders at San José State Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 12, 10:00 PM ETProvident Credit Union Event Center · at San José St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UC Riverside and San José St
UCR	This season	SJSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJSU 80–69 · win probability SJSU 83%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SJSU has more of the edges

UCR 1, SJSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SJSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UCR 19.0%, SJSU 15.1%. Forced: UCR 15.5%, SJSU 17.4%

SJSUBig

SJSU offense vs UCR defense

Offense 141st of 366 against a defense 296th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: UCR plays 71.0 a game (74th fastest), SJSU 66.0 (315th). Faster games mean more points

SJSUBig

UCR offense vs SJSU defense

Offense 265th of 366 against a defense 151st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

UCR has played the 182nd-hardest schedule, SJSU the 85th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UCRSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UCR 27.8%, SJSU 29.3%. Defensive: UCR 70.0%, SJSU 63.5%

SJSUSmall

Home court

SJSU at home. This season: SJSU 0-0 at home, UCR 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UCR 35.0, SJSU 33.4. Allowed: UCR 40.9, SJSU 35.4

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UCR 48.9 and allows 52.7; SJSU 49.7 and allows 57.1

Even

Three-pointers

UCR hits 31.6% and allows 33.5%; SJSU hits 35.3% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 38.3% and 38.3% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UCR 21%, SJSU 24%. Transfers in: UCR 5, SJSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SJSU -10.9	—
Total	—	149.0	—
Projected score	—	UCR 69 · SJSU 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SJSU -6.3	—
1H total	69.7	—
1H projected score	UCR 31.7 · SJSU 38	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCR WLLWL	15-15	50%	9-9	—
SJSU LLLWW	16-16	50%	6-9	—

Venue/role: UCR away; SJSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCR OOUOO	16-14	53%	8-22
SJSU OUOOO	21-11	66%	8-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCR	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
SJSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UC Riverside

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ FRES	No recent meeting
Nov 18	@ USD	W85–71WO
Nov 25	vs PRST	No recent meeting

San José St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs ALST	W70–57LU
Nov 18	vs FRES	L68–82LU
Nov 22	vs LUC	W63–51WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UC Riverside

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

W L L L W W L L W L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

W W L L W W L W W L W L L W W L W L W W L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

U O O U O O O U O U O O U U U O U O U U O U O U U O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UND	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 11	@UNM	L 68-82	+19.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	vsUND	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 150
Nov 18	@CBU	L 57-80	+12.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 137
Nov 21	@USD	W 85-71	+7.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsGRAM	W 83-74	-3.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 157
Nov 29	@UTU	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 4	@UCI	L 60-73	+13.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 6	@CP	W 88-84	+5.5	W +9.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 13	@BYU	L 53-100	+33.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 20	@STMN	L 78-92	+14.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 23	@UCLA	L 65-97	+24.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 1	vsHAW	L 45-88	+8.5	L −34.5	149.5	U 133
Jan 8	@CSUB	L 66-67	+3.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 10	vsUCSD	L 66-69	+10.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 15	@LBSU	L 73-88	+5.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 161
Jan 17	vsCSUF	W 81-72	+3.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 153
Jan 22	vsUCI	L 66-80	+8.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 146
Jan 24	@UCD	L 66-74	+9.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 140
Jan 29	vsLBSU	W 71-61	+1.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 31	vsCP	L 87-94	-1.5	L −8.5	162.5	O 181
Feb 5	@CSUF	L 72-78	+5.5	L −0.5	156.5	U 150
Feb 7	@CSUN	L 74-88	+10.5	L −3.5	160.5	O 162
Feb 12	vsUCSB	L 68-76	+6.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 14	@UCSD	L 66-72	+11.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 19	vsCSUB	W 93-65	-6.5	W +21.5	150.5	O 158
Feb 21	vsUCD	L 73-78	+2.5	L −2.5	149.5	O 151
Feb 26	@UCSB	L 59-70	+10.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 129
Feb 28	vsCSUN	W 95-84	+4.5	W +15.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 5	@HAW	L 74-93	+12.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 74-70

+5.5

UNM

L 68-82

+5.5

UND

L 74-76

−5.5

CBU

L 57-80

−10.5

USD

W 85-71

+21.5

GRAM

W 83-74

+5.5

UTU

L 69-77

−2.5

UCI

L 60-73

+0.5

W 88-84

+9.5

BYU

L 53-100

−13.5

STMN

L 78-92

+0.5

UCLA

L 65-97

−7.5

HAW

L 45-88

−34.5

CSUB

L 66-67

+2.5

UCSD

L 66-69

+7.5

LBSU

L 73-88

−9.5

CSUF

W 81-72

+12.5

UCI

L 66-80

−5.5

UCD

L 66-74

+1.5

LBSU

W 71-61

+11.5

L 87-94

−8.5

CSUF

L 72-78

−0.5

CSUN

L 74-88

−3.5

UCSB

L 68-76

−1.5

UCSD

L 66-72

+5.5

CSUB

W 93-65

+21.5

UCD

L 73-78

−2.5

UCSB

L 59-70

−0.5

CSUN

W 95-84

+15.5

HAW

L 74-93

−6.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 74-70

−2.5

UNM

L 68-82

+8.5

UND

L 74-76

+1.5

CBU

L 57-80

−5.5

USD

W 85-71

+3.5

GRAM

W 83-74

+12.5

UTU

L 69-77

+0.5

UCI

L 60-73

−9.5

W 88-84

+9.5

BYU

L 53-100

−2.5

STMN

L 78-92

+17.5

UCLA

L 65-97

+13.5

HAW

L 45-88

−16.5

CSUB

L 66-67

−14.5

UCSD

L 66-69

−14.5

LBSU

L 73-88

+19.5

CSUF

W 81-72

−4.5

UCI

L 66-80

+3.5

UCD

L 66-74

−9.5

LBSU

W 71-61

−12.5

L 87-94

+18.5

CSUF

L 72-78

−6.5

CSUN

L 74-88

+1.5

UCSB

L 68-76

−1.5

UCSD

L 66-72

−9.5

CSUB

W 93-65

+7.5

UCD

L 73-78

+1.5

UCSB

L 59-70

−16.5

CSUN

W 95-84

+20.5

HAW

L 74-93

+16.5

over 16under 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

San José St

32 games played

Straight up

8-24

25% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-11

66% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2425%

L L L W L W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L W W L W L W L W L L W L L W L L W L W W W L W W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

21-1166%

O O U U U U U O O O O O O U U O U O U O O U O O O O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UTAH	L 75-84	+11.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	@UCSB	L 74-85	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 13	@MSU	L 60-79	+24.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 21	vsSOU	W 80-66	-5.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 146
Nov 25	vsTLSA	L 51-81	+5.5	L −24.5	149.5	U 132
Nov 26	vsLUC	W 63-51	-1.5	W +10.5	136.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsUCI	L 63-72	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 5	vsUSD	W 86-69	-6.5	W +10.5	144.5	O 155
Dec 9	vsLBSU	W 89-83	-7.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 13	vsSTAN	L 82-86	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 168
Dec 20	@UNM	L 65-88	+16.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 153
Dec 30	vsSDSU	L 68-81	+11.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 3	@USU	L 78-96	+22.5	W +4.5	151.5	O 174
Jan 6	vsFRES	L 55-70	+1.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 125
Jan 10	@GCU	L 58-76	+16.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 13	vsAF	W 70-62	-5.5	W +2.5	128.5	O 132
Jan 17	vsUNLV	L 62-76	+7.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 20	@NEV	L 54-87	+16.5	L −16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@WYO	L 62-66	+13.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsBOIS	L 58-89	+12.5	L −18.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 31	vsUNM	L 80-90	+15.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 170
Feb 7	@CSU	L 57-65	+15.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 122
Feb 10	@UNLV	L 75-82	+12.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsGCU	L 79-94	+11.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 173
Feb 17	vsNEV	W 87-71	+10.5	W +26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	@BOIS	L 69-84	+18.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 24	@AF	W 86-80	-6.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 166
Feb 28	vsCSU	L 73-85	+4.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 158
Mar 3	@FRES	L 68-82	+7.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 7	vsWYO	L 78-88	+6.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 166
Mar 11	vsBOIS	W 84-74	+14.5	W +24.5	146.5	O 158
Mar 12	vsUNM	L 77-93	+16.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+2.5

UCSB

L 74-85

−1.5

MSU

L 60-79

+5.5

SOU

W 80-66

+8.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−24.5

LUC

W 63-51

+10.5

UCI

L 63-72

−5.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

−1.5

STAN

L 82-86

+4.5

UNM

L 65-88

−6.5

SDSU

L 68-81

−1.5

USU

L 78-96

+4.5

FRES

L 55-70

−13.5

GCU

L 58-76

−1.5

W 70-62

+2.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−6.5

NEV

L 54-87

−16.5

WYO

L 62-66

+9.5

BOIS

L 58-89

−18.5

UNM

L 80-90

+5.5

CSU

L 57-65

+7.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+5.5

GCU

L 79-94

−3.5

NEV

W 87-71

+26.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+3.5

W 86-80

−0.5

CSU

L 73-85

−7.5

FRES

L 68-82

−6.5

WYO

L 78-88

−3.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+24.5

UNM

L 77-93

+0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+12.5

UCSB

L 74-85

+12.5

MSU

L 60-79

−4.5

SOU

W 80-66

−4.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−17.5

LUC

W 63-51

−22.5

UCI

L 63-72

−4.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

+30.5

STAN

L 82-86

+22.5

UNM

L 65-88

+0.5

SDSU

L 68-81

+7.5

USU

L 78-96

+22.5

FRES

L 55-70

−24.5

GCU

L 58-76

−7.5

W 70-62

+3.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−8.5

NEV

L 54-87

+3.5

WYO

L 62-66

−13.5

BOIS

L 58-89

+5.5

UNM

L 80-90

+21.5

CSU

L 57-65

−16.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+7.5

GCU

L 79-94

+33.5

NEV

W 87-71

+16.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+6.5

W 86-80

+20.5

CSU

L 73-85

+6.5

FRES

L 68-82

−1.5

WYO

L 78-88

+17.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+11.5

UNM

L 77-93

+15.5

over 21under 11avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

San José St has the better starters

Position by position: UC Riverside 0, San José St 1, even 4

UC RiversideBetterSan José St

G D. Perteete6.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31

Even

G P. Goodarzi8.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35

G J. Evans TR5.8 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25

No call

G J. Hannah7.5 pts · 1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

G B. Waller4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

No call

F Z. Eddine Bedri TR12.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.2 ast Not ranked

G D. Malcolm TR5.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 87

No call

F R. Vaihola TR5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked

F D. Washington TR2.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 0

SJSUBig

F M. Cook TR7.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 61

UC RiversideBetterSan José St

UCR offense265th of 366 · -8.1

SJSUSmall

SJSU defense151st of 366 · -3.3

UCR defense296th of 366 · -7.4

SJSUBig

SJSU offense141st of 366 · -4.3

Backcourt-2.7 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt-1.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

SJSUBig

Frontcourt+2.3 · 3 players

Bench+0.3 · 2 players

SJSUSmall

Bench+1.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestUCR betterSJSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UC Riverside

Guards

D. Perteete28 minJ. Evans15 min · TRB. Waller14 minD. Malcolm14 min · TRT. Duckett7 min · TRE. ReaganNew

Forwards

D. Washington11 min · TRT. Parrish-TillmanNewA. McKinneyNewJ. MajokNew

Centers

A. Oyeadier2 min · TR

San José St

Guards

P. Goodarzi26 minJ. Hannah22 minM. Mason20 min · TRJ. Chammaa17 min · TRR. GreenNewC. KruegerNew

Forwards

Z. Eddine Bedri24 min · TRR. Vaihola21 min · TRM. Cook21 min · TRK. Martin8 min · TRL. HowardNew

Centers

M. Dau NyangolNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UCR71.6 #258

SJSU70.8 #269

Points per possession

UCR1.01 #317

SJSU1.07 #203

Pace (possessions)

UCR71.0 #74

SJSU66.0 #315

Shooting

Effective FG%

UCR48.9 #291

SJSU49.7 #255

3-point %

UCR31.6 #301

SJSU35.3 #97

3-point attempt rate

UCR38.3 #203

SJSU38.3 #204

Free throw rate

UCR35.0 #177

SJSU33.4 #225

Possessions

Turnover rate

UCR19.0 #321

SJSU15.1 #77

Offensive rebound rate

UCR27.8 #275

SJSU29.3 #225

Assists per game

UCR12.3 #262

SJSU10.3 #353

Defense

Points allowed

UCR79.1 #303

SJSU79.2 #305

Points allowed per possession

UCR1.11 #256

SJSU1.20 #359

Opponent effective FG%

UCR52.7 #252

SJSU57.1 #359

Opponent 3-point %

UCR33.5 #159

SJSU36.0 #305

Turnovers forced

UCR15.5 #250

SJSU17.4 #123

Defensive rebound rate

UCR70.0 #159

SJSU63.5 #354

Steals per game

UCR5.1 #325

SJSU5.8 #259

Blocks per game

UCR4.1 #67

SJSU2.2 #333

UCR		SJSU
Scoring
71.6 #258	Points per game	70.8 #269
1.01 #317	Points per possession	1.07 #203
71.0 #74	Pace (possessions)	66.0 #315
Shooting
48.9 #291	Effective FG%	49.7 #255
31.6 #301	3-point %	35.3 #97
38.3 #203	3-point attempt rate	38.3 #204
35.0 #177	Free throw rate	33.4 #225
Possessions
19.0 #321	Turnover rate	15.1 #77
27.8 #275	Offensive rebound rate	29.3 #225
12.3 #262	Assists per game	10.3 #353
Defense
79.1 #303	Points allowed	79.2 #305
1.11 #256	Points allowed per possession	1.20 #359
52.7 #252	Opponent effective FG%	57.1 #359
33.5 #159	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #305
15.5 #250	Turnovers forced	17.4 #123
70.0 #159	Defensive rebound rate	63.5 #354
5.1 #325	Steals per game	5.8 #259
4.1 #67	Blocks per game	2.2 #333

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UC Riverside

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Hawai'i74–93
Wvs CSU Northridge95–84
L@ Santa Barbara59–70
Lvs UC Davis73–78
Wvs Bakersfield93–65

A week or more of rest.

San José St

8-24 in 2025-26 overall · 4-18 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs New Mexico77–93
Wvs Boise St84–74
Lvs Wyoming78–88
L@ Fresno St68–82
Lvs Colorado St73–85

A week or more of rest.

UC Riverside Highlanders at San José State Spartans

What could decide it: SJSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UC Riverside

San José St

San José St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UC Riverside

San José St