Alabama State Hornets at San José State Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 AM ETProvident Credit Union Event Center · at San José St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Alabama St and San José St
ALST	This season	SJSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJSU 82–68 · win probability SJSU 88%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SJSU has more of the edges

ALST 1, SJSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

ALST has played the 333rd-hardest schedule, SJSU the 85th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SJSUBig

SJSU offense vs ALST defense

Offense 141st of 366 against a defense 330th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: ALST plays 71.3 a game (59th fastest), SJSU 66.0 (315th). Faster games mean more points

SJSUBig

ALST offense vs SJSU defense

Offense 269th of 366 against a defense 151st, on the model’s ratings

ALSTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ALST 31.9%, SJSU 29.3%. Defensive: ALST 68.5%, SJSU 63.5%

SJSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ALST 18.3%, SJSU 15.1%. Forced: ALST 18.7%, SJSU 17.4%

SJSUSmall

Home court

SJSU at home. This season: SJSU 0-0 at home, ALST 0-0 away

SJSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ALST 34.9, SJSU 33.4. Allowed: ALST 42.3, SJSU 35.4

Even

Three-pointers

ALST hits 31.8% and allows 34.2%; SJSU hits 35.3% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 38.5% and 38.3% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ALST 47.1 and allows 52.2; SJSU 49.7 and allows 57.1

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ALST 32%, SJSU 24%. Transfers in: ALST 3, SJSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SJSU -13.7	—
Total	—	150.1	—
Projected score	—	ALST 68.2 · SJSU 81.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SJSU -8.0	—
1H total	70.2	—
1H projected score	ALST 31.1 · SJSU 39.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALST LWLLL	13-18	42%	8-11	—
SJSU LLLWW	16-16	50%	6-9	—

Venue/role: ALST away; SJSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALST UOUUO	14-17	45%	9-22
SJSU OUOOO	21-11	66%	8-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALST	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
SJSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Alabama St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ UCD	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ FRES	No recent meeting
Nov 23	@ CAL	No recent meeting

San José St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs FRES	L68–82LU
Nov 22	vs LUC	W63–51WU
Nov 28	@ UVU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ALST 0–1 SJSUSJSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ALST 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 15, 2022-23	ALST 57 @ SJSU 70	SJSU -14.5	ALST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama St

31 games played

Straight up

9-22

29% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2229%

L W L L W L L L L L L L W L L W L W L L W L L W W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

L W L W W L W L W L L L W L L W L W L L W L W W W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1745%

U U O U U O O U O U O U O O U U U O O U O U U U O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@FSU	L 64-101	+24.5	L −12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@UAB	W 77-74	+19.5	W +22.5	164.5	U 151
Nov 17	@COLO	L 66-94	+22.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 160
Nov 19	@AF	L 64-66	+2.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 130
Nov 21	vsIUIN	W 101-80	+2.5	W +23.5	181.5	U 181
Nov 23	vsSIUE	L 68-83	+1.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 26	@UNM	L 87-93	+19.5	W +13.5	148.5	O 180
Dec 7	@UTM	L 64-74	+6.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 11	@MIZ	L 77-85	+26.5	W +18.5	155.5	O 162
Dec 17	@CIN	L 51-88	+21.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 139
Dec 22	@MEM	L 67-88	+20.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 29	@MSST	L 56-94	+17.5	L −20.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 3	@MVSU	W 89-69	-13.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 5	@UAPB	L 79-90	-1.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsJKST	L 64-75	-7.5	L −18.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 12	vsALCN	W 81-66	-9.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 19	vsAAMU	L 69-73	-1.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 142
Jan 24	@PV	W 95-80	-1.5	W +13.5	158.5	O 175
Jan 27	@TXSO	L 64-96	+2.5	L −29.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBCU	L 54-69	+1.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 123
Feb 2	vsFAMU	W 79-66	-3.5	W +9.5	139.5	O 145
Feb 7	@GRAM	L 47-57	+4.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 104
Feb 9	@SOU	L 68-69	+6.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 137
Feb 14	vsUAPB	W 79-61	-3.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 140
Feb 16	vsMVSU	W 92-55	-16.5	W +20.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 19	@BCU	L 71-82	+5.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 21	@FAMU	L 63-76	-1.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 139
Feb 28	@AAMU	W 89-88	+1.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 177
Mar 3	vsSOU	L 64-71	-1.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 135
Mar 5	vsGRAM	L 63-65	-2.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 128
Mar 9	vsALCN	L 65-77	-7.5	L −19.5	141.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−12.5

UAB

W 77-74

+22.5

COLO

L 66-94

−5.5

L 64-66

+0.5

IUIN

W 101-80

+23.5

SIUE

L 68-83

−13.5

UNM

L 87-93

+13.5

UTM

L 64-74

−3.5

MIZ

L 77-85

+18.5

CIN

L 51-88

−15.5

MEM

L 67-88

−0.5

MSST

L 56-94

−20.5

MVSU

W 89-69

+6.5

UAPB

L 79-90

−12.5

JKST

L 64-75

−18.5

ALCN

W 81-66

+5.5

AAMU

L 69-73

−5.5

W 95-80

+13.5

TXSO

L 64-96

−29.5

BCU

L 54-69

−13.5

FAMU

W 79-66

+9.5

GRAM

L 47-57

−5.5

SOU

L 68-69

+5.5

UAPB

W 79-61

+14.5

MVSU

W 92-55

+20.5

BCU

L 71-82

−5.5

FAMU

L 63-76

−14.5

AAMU

W 89-88

+2.5

SOU

L 64-71

−8.5

GRAM

L 63-65

−4.5

ALCN

L 65-77

−19.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−1.5

UAB

W 77-74

−13.5

COLO

L 66-94

+3.5

L 64-66

−8.5

IUIN

W 101-80

−0.5

SIUE

L 68-83

+8.5

UNM

L 87-93

+31.5

UTM

L 64-74

−6.5

MIZ

L 77-85

+6.5

CIN

L 51-88

−6.5

MEM

L 67-88

+3.5

MSST

L 56-94

−4.5

MVSU

W 89-69

+13.5

UAPB

L 79-90

+9.5

JKST

L 64-75

−14.5

ALCN

W 81-66

−4.5

AAMU

L 69-73

−4.5

W 95-80

+16.5

TXSO

L 64-96

+4.5

BCU

L 54-69

−29.5

FAMU

W 79-66

+5.5

GRAM

L 47-57

−40.5

SOU

L 68-69

−12.5

UAPB

W 79-61

−9.5

MVSU

W 92-55

+4.5

BCU

L 71-82

+5.5

FAMU

L 63-76

−5.5

AAMU

W 89-88

+33.5

SOU

L 64-71

−18.5

GRAM

L 63-65

−16.5

ALCN

L 65-77

+0.5

over 14under 17avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

San José St

32 games played

Straight up

8-24

25% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-11

66% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2425%

L L L W L W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L W W L W L W L W L L W L L W L L W L W W W L W W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

21-1166%

O O U U U U U O O O O O O U U O U O U O O U O O O O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UTAH	L 75-84	+11.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	@UCSB	L 74-85	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 13	@MSU	L 60-79	+24.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 21	vsSOU	W 80-66	-5.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 146
Nov 25	vsTLSA	L 51-81	+5.5	L −24.5	149.5	U 132
Nov 26	vsLUC	W 63-51	-1.5	W +10.5	136.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsUCI	L 63-72	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 5	vsUSD	W 86-69	-6.5	W +10.5	144.5	O 155
Dec 9	vsLBSU	W 89-83	-7.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 13	vsSTAN	L 82-86	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 168
Dec 20	@UNM	L 65-88	+16.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 153
Dec 30	vsSDSU	L 68-81	+11.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 3	@USU	L 78-96	+22.5	W +4.5	151.5	O 174
Jan 6	vsFRES	L 55-70	+1.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 125
Jan 10	@GCU	L 58-76	+16.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 13	vsAF	W 70-62	-5.5	W +2.5	128.5	O 132
Jan 17	vsUNLV	L 62-76	+7.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 20	@NEV	L 54-87	+16.5	L −16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@WYO	L 62-66	+13.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsBOIS	L 58-89	+12.5	L −18.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 31	vsUNM	L 80-90	+15.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 170
Feb 7	@CSU	L 57-65	+15.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 122
Feb 10	@UNLV	L 75-82	+12.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsGCU	L 79-94	+11.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 173
Feb 17	vsNEV	W 87-71	+10.5	W +26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	@BOIS	L 69-84	+18.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 24	@AF	W 86-80	-6.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 166
Feb 28	vsCSU	L 73-85	+4.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 158
Mar 3	@FRES	L 68-82	+7.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 7	vsWYO	L 78-88	+6.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 166
Mar 11	vsBOIS	W 84-74	+14.5	W +24.5	146.5	O 158
Mar 12	vsUNM	L 77-93	+16.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+2.5

UCSB

L 74-85

−1.5

MSU

L 60-79

+5.5

SOU

W 80-66

+8.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−24.5

LUC

W 63-51

+10.5

UCI

L 63-72

−5.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

−1.5

STAN

L 82-86

+4.5

UNM

L 65-88

−6.5

SDSU

L 68-81

−1.5

USU

L 78-96

+4.5

FRES

L 55-70

−13.5

GCU

L 58-76

−1.5

W 70-62

+2.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−6.5

NEV

L 54-87

−16.5

WYO

L 62-66

+9.5

BOIS

L 58-89

−18.5

UNM

L 80-90

+5.5

CSU

L 57-65

+7.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+5.5

GCU

L 79-94

−3.5

NEV

W 87-71

+26.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+3.5

W 86-80

−0.5

CSU

L 73-85

−7.5

FRES

L 68-82

−6.5

WYO

L 78-88

−3.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+24.5

UNM

L 77-93

+0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+12.5

UCSB

L 74-85

+12.5

MSU

L 60-79

−4.5

SOU

W 80-66

−4.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−17.5

LUC

W 63-51

−22.5

UCI

L 63-72

−4.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

+30.5

STAN

L 82-86

+22.5

UNM

L 65-88

+0.5

SDSU

L 68-81

+7.5

USU

L 78-96

+22.5

FRES

L 55-70

−24.5

GCU

L 58-76

−7.5

W 70-62

+3.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−8.5

NEV

L 54-87

+3.5

WYO

L 62-66

−13.5

BOIS

L 58-89

+5.5

UNM

L 80-90

+21.5

CSU

L 57-65

−16.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+7.5

GCU

L 79-94

+33.5

NEV

W 87-71

+16.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+6.5

W 86-80

+20.5

CSU

L 73-85

+6.5

FRES

L 68-82

−1.5

WYO

L 78-88

+17.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+11.5

UNM

L 77-93

+15.5

over 21under 11avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Alabama St 1, San José St 1, even 3

Alabama StBetterSan José St

G M. James TR21 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 77

ALSTBig

G P. Goodarzi8.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35

G A. Brown13.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 46

No call

G J. Hannah7.5 pts · 1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

G T. Miller7 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast Not ranked

No call

F Z. Eddine Bedri TR12.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.2 ast Not ranked

F J. Walker4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 19

No call

F R. Vaihola TR5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked

F J. Scott TR3.7 pts · 3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 33

SJSUSmall

F M. Cook TR7.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 61

Alabama StBetterSan José St

ALST offense269th of 366 · -8.2

SJSUSmall

SJSU defense151st of 366 · -3.3

ALST defense330th of 366 · -8.6

SJSUBig

SJSU offense141st of 366 · -4.3

Backcourt-1.0 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-1.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

SJSUBig

Frontcourt+2.3 · 3 players

Bench-0.0 · 1 player

SJSUSmall

Bench+1.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestALST betterSJSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Alabama St

Guards

M. James37 min · TRA. Brown26 minT. Miller22 minD. BondsNewP. McMillanNewJ. RogersNew

Forwards

J. Walker16 minJ. Scott12 min · TRI. Barganier1 min · TRP. MensahNewM. DixonNewT. HamptonNew

San José St

Guards

P. Goodarzi26 minJ. Hannah22 minM. Mason20 min · TRJ. Chammaa17 min · TRR. GreenNewC. KruegerNew

Forwards

Z. Eddine Bedri24 min · TRR. Vaihola21 min · TRM. Cook21 min · TRK. Martin8 min · TRL. HowardNew

Centers

M. Dau NyangolNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ALST71.5 #260

SJSU70.8 #269

Points per possession

ALST1.01 #318

SJSU1.07 #203

Pace (possessions)

ALST71.3 #59

SJSU66.0 #315

Shooting

Effective FG%

ALST47.1 #335

SJSU49.7 #255

3-point %

ALST31.8 #288

SJSU35.3 #97

3-point attempt rate

ALST38.5 #200

SJSU38.3 #204

Free throw rate

ALST34.9 #185

SJSU33.4 #225

Possessions

Turnover rate

ALST18.3 #289

SJSU15.1 #77

Offensive rebound rate

ALST31.9 #128

SJSU29.3 #225

Assists per game

ALST11.7 #303

SJSU10.3 #353

Defense

Points allowed

ALST77.6 #256

SJSU79.2 #305

Points allowed per possession

ALST1.09 #185

SJSU1.20 #359

Opponent effective FG%

ALST52.2 #222

SJSU57.1 #359

Opponent 3-point %

ALST34.2 #194

SJSU36.0 #305

Turnovers forced

ALST18.7 #63

SJSU17.4 #123

Defensive rebound rate

ALST68.5 #230

SJSU63.5 #354

Steals per game

ALST7.9 #50

SJSU5.8 #259

Blocks per game

ALST3.8 #102

SJSU2.2 #333

ALST		SJSU
Scoring
71.5 #260	Points per game	70.8 #269
1.01 #318	Points per possession	1.07 #203
71.3 #59	Pace (possessions)	66.0 #315
Shooting
47.1 #335	Effective FG%	49.7 #255
31.8 #288	3-point %	35.3 #97
38.5 #200	3-point attempt rate	38.3 #204
34.9 #185	Free throw rate	33.4 #225
Possessions
18.3 #289	Turnover rate	15.1 #77
31.9 #128	Offensive rebound rate	29.3 #225
11.7 #303	Assists per game	10.3 #353
Defense
77.6 #256	Points allowed	79.2 #305
1.09 #185	Points allowed per possession	1.20 #359
52.2 #222	Opponent effective FG%	57.1 #359
34.2 #194	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #305
18.7 #63	Turnovers forced	17.4 #123
68.5 #230	Defensive rebound rate	63.5 #354
7.9 #50	Steals per game	5.8 #259
3.8 #102	Blocks per game	2.2 #333

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alabama St

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alcorn St65–77
Lvs Grambling63–65
Lvs Southern64–71
W@ Alabama A&M89–88
L@ Florida A&M63–76

A week or more of rest.

San José St

8-24 in 2025-26 overall · 4-18 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs New Mexico77–93
Wvs Boise St84–74
Lvs Wyoming78–88
L@ Fresno St68–82
Lvs Colorado St73–85

A week or more of rest.

Alabama State Hornets at San José State Spartans

What could decide it: SJSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama St

San José St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Alabama St

San José St