Cleveland State Vikings at Alabama A&M Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 AM ETEvent Center · at Alabama A&M

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cleveland St and Alabama A&M
CLE	This season	AAMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AAMU 76–74 · win probability AAMU 57%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AAMU has more of the edges

CLE 1, AAMU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 222nd-hardest schedule, AAMU the 363rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

AAMUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 27.0%, AAMU 27.4%. Defensive: CLE 63.4%, AAMU 70.5%

AAMUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 17.9%, AAMU 16.5%. Forced: CLE 15.1%, AAMU 16.6%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: CLE plays 71.4 a game (56th fastest), AAMU 67.6 (250th). Faster games mean more points

AAMUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 0%, AAMU 51%. Transfers in: CLE 7, AAMU 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CLESmall

CLE offense vs AAMU defense

Offense 248th of 366 against a defense 305th, on the model’s ratings

AAMUSmall

Home court

AAMU at home. This season: AAMU 0-0 at home, CLE 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 54.2 and allows 57.2; AAMU 49.2 and allows 52.1

Even

AAMU offense vs CLE defense

Offense 325th of 366 against a defense 356th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.5% and allows 36.1%; AAMU hits 35.0% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 50.8% and 34.0% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 37.9, AAMU 45.4. Allowed: CLE 35.5, AAMU 38.6

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	AAMU -2.0	—
Total	—	150.8	—
Projected score	—	CLE 74.4 · AAMU 76.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AAMU -1.1	—
1H total	70.5	—
1H projected score	CLE 34.7 · AAMU 35.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLLWL	12-18	40%	6-10	—
AAMU LWLWL	16-14	53%	8-6	—

Venue/role: CLE away; AAMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OUUOU	19-11	63%	8-22
AAMU OUOOU	15-15	50%	15-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
AAMU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cleveland St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ XAV	L68–72WU
Nov 21	vs KENT	L71–91LU
Dec 2	vs YSU	L82–106LO

Alabama A&M

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs LIP	L58–92LO
Nov 24	@ UNA	W68–60WU
Dec 1	@ UTC	L66–73LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CLE 1–0 AAMUCLE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CLE 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 25, 2023-24	AAMU 59 @ CLE 86	CLE -16.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cleveland St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-11

63% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L W L L L L L L L W L L L L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1840%

W L W W L L W L L L L W W L L L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1163%

O O O O O U U O U O U O U O O O O O O O U U U O O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LUC	L 88-91	+17.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 10	@NU	L 63-110	+23.5	L −23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsKENT	L 95-102	+11.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 197
Nov 16	vsRAD	W 87-82	+8.5	W +13.5	162.5	O 169
Nov 19	vsVAL	L 75-90	-2.5	L −17.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 22	@KENT	L 71-91	+15.5	L −4.5	172.5	U 162
Nov 28	@MIZ	L 59-86	+31.5	W +4.5	170.5	U 145
Dec 3	@NKU	L 80-95	+14.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 175
Dec 6	vsDETM	L 59-71	-1.5	L −13.5	158.5	U 130
Dec 17	@UAB	L 77-101	+18.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 178
Dec 21	vsMILW	L 71-81	+6.5	L −3.5	160.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsIUIN	W 99-86	-1.5	W +11.5	172.5	O 185
Jan 4	@PFW	L 71-74	+11.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 145
Jan 9	@OAK	L 74-97	+15.5	L −7.5	169.5	O 171
Jan 11	@DETM	L 84-94	+6.5	L −3.5	162.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsGB	L 73-88	+3.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 17	vsYSU	W 80-78	+8.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 21	@WRST	W 85-79	+15.5	W +21.5	156.5	O 164
Jan 30	@GB	W 89-82	+7.5	W +14.5	150.5	O 171
Feb 1	@MILW	W 90-88	+9.5	W +11.5	160.5	O 178
Feb 4	vsOAK	W 91-78	+7.5	W +20.5	170.5	U 169
Feb 7	@IUIN	L 74-82	+2.5	L −5.5	169.5	U 156
Feb 12	vsRMU	L 68-85	+3.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 15	vsWRST	L 90-102	+7.5	L −4.5	157.5	O 192
Feb 18	@YSU	L 82-106	+11.5	L −12.5	157.5	O 188
Feb 22	vsPFW	L 86-92	+3.5	L −2.5	163.5	O 178
Feb 25	vsNKU	L 70-81	+8.5	L −2.5	166.5	U 151
Feb 28	@RMU	L 64-83	+12.5	L −6.5	157.5	U 147
Mar 2	vsIUIN	W 101-93	+2.5	W +10.5	169.5	O 194
Mar 4	@WRST	L 61-90	+14.5	L −14.5	162.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LUC

L 88-91

+14.5

L 63-110

−23.5

KENT

L 95-102

+4.5

RAD

W 87-82

+13.5

VAL

L 75-90

−17.5

KENT

L 71-91

−4.5

MIZ

L 59-86

+4.5

NKU

L 80-95

−0.5

DETM

L 59-71

−13.5

UAB

L 77-101

−5.5

MILW

L 71-81

−3.5

IUIN

W 99-86

+11.5

PFW

L 71-74

+8.5

OAK

L 74-97

−7.5

DETM

L 84-94

−3.5

L 73-88

−11.5

YSU

W 80-78

+10.5

WRST

W 85-79

+21.5

W 89-82

+14.5

MILW

W 90-88

+11.5

OAK

W 91-78

+20.5

IUIN

L 74-82

−5.5

RMU

L 68-85

−13.5

WRST

L 90-102

−4.5

YSU

L 82-106

−12.5

PFW

L 86-92

−2.5

NKU

L 70-81

−2.5

RMU

L 64-83

−6.5

IUIN

W 101-93

+10.5

WRST

L 61-90

−14.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LUC

L 88-91

+27.5

L 63-110

+21.5

KENT

L 95-102

+31.5

RAD

W 87-82

+6.5

VAL

L 75-90

+6.5

KENT

L 71-91

−10.5

MIZ

L 59-86

−25.5

NKU

L 80-95

+16.5

DETM

L 59-71

−28.5

UAB

L 77-101

+21.5

MILW

L 71-81

−8.5

IUIN

W 99-86

+12.5

PFW

L 71-74

−14.5

OAK

L 74-97

+1.5

DETM

L 84-94

+15.5

L 73-88

+10.5

YSU

W 80-78

+5.5

WRST

W 85-79

+7.5

W 89-82

+20.5

MILW

W 90-88

+17.5

OAK

W 91-78

−1.5

IUIN

L 74-82

−13.5

RMU

L 68-85

−1.5

WRST

L 90-102

+34.5

YSU

L 82-106

+30.5

PFW

L 86-92

+14.5

NKU

L 70-81

−15.5

RMU

L 64-83

−10.5

IUIN

W 101-93

+24.5

WRST

L 61-90

−11.5

over 19under 11avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Alabama A&M

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

L W W L L W L W L L L W L W W L W W L L W W W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L W W L W W L W W L L W L W W L W W L L W L W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U U O U U O U O O O U U O U O U U O O U U O U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@IU	L 51-98	+30.5	L −16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 13	vsCHSO	W 68-64	-1.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 132
Nov 16	vsLIN	W 74-65	-3.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 139
Nov 28	@CLEM	L 56-92	+27.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 30	@CCU	L 60-67	+7.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 127
Dec 3	vsTNST	W 80-53	+4.5	W +31.5	147.5	U 133
Dec 7	@LIP	L 58-92	+11.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 15	vsUNA	W 68-60	+4.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 128
Dec 17	vsMISS	L 66-80	+20.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 146
Dec 21	vsUTC	L 66-73	+2.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 139
Jan 3	@UAPB	L 83-95	-1.5	L −13.5	149.5	O 178
Jan 5	@MVSU	W 71-51	-10.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 122
Jan 10	vsALCN	L 62-64	-9.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 126
Jan 12	vsJKST	W 100-91	-6.5	W +2.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 19	vsALST	W 73-69	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 142
Jan 24	@TXSO	L 74-89	-1.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 163
Jan 27	@PV	W 80-60	+2.5	W +22.5	152.5	U 140
Jan 31	vsFAMU	W 72-65	-3.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 2	vsBCU	L 62-80	+2.5	L −15.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 7	@SOU	L 68-81	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 9	@GRAM	W 66-58	+4.5	W +12.5	136.5	U 124
Feb 14	vsMVSU	W 72-65	-15.5	L −8.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 16	vsUAPB	W 82-70	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 19	@FAMU	W 63-61	+1.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 124
Feb 21	@BCU	L 76-85	+6.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 161
Feb 28	vsALST	L 88-89	-1.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 177
Mar 3	vsGRAM	W 77-63	-2.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 140
Mar 5	vsSOU	L 85-88	+1.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 173
Mar 12	vsTXSO	W 85-74	-1.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsPV	L 55-74	-1.5	L −20.5	140.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-98

−16.5

CHSO

W 68-64

+2.5

LIN

W 74-65

+5.5

CLEM

L 56-92

−8.5

CCU

L 60-67

+0.5

TNST

W 80-53

+31.5

LIP

L 58-92

−22.5

UNA

W 68-60

+12.5

MISS

L 66-80

+6.5

UTC

L 66-73

−4.5

UAPB

L 83-95

−13.5

MVSU

W 71-51

+9.5

ALCN

L 62-64

−11.5

JKST

W 100-91

+2.5

ALST

W 73-69

+5.5

TXSO

L 74-89

−16.5

W 80-60

+22.5

FAMU

W 72-65

+3.5

BCU

L 62-80

−15.5

SOU

L 68-81

−6.5

GRAM

W 66-58

+12.5

MVSU

W 72-65

−8.5

UAPB

W 82-70

+8.5

FAMU

W 63-61

+3.5

BCU

L 76-85

−2.5

ALST

L 88-89

−2.5

GRAM

W 77-63

+11.5

SOU

L 85-88

−1.5

TXSO

W 85-74

+9.5

L 55-74

−20.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-98

+1.5

CHSO

W 68-64

−20.5

LIN

W 74-65

−10.5

CLEM

L 56-92

+6.5

CCU

L 60-67

−13.5

TNST

W 80-53

−14.5

LIP

L 58-92

+3.5

UNA

W 68-60

−12.5

MISS

L 66-80

+10.5

UTC

L 66-73

+0.5

UAPB

L 83-95

+28.5

MVSU

W 71-51

−13.5

ALCN

L 62-64

−14.5

JKST

W 100-91

+50.5

ALST

W 73-69

−4.5

TXSO

L 74-89

+17.5

W 80-60

−12.5

FAMU

W 72-65

−1.5

BCU

L 62-80

+0.5

SOU

L 68-81

+5.5

GRAM

W 66-58

−12.5

MVSU

W 72-65

−1.5

UAPB

W 82-70

+7.5

FAMU

W 63-61

−15.5

BCU

L 76-85

+18.5

ALST

L 88-89

+33.5

GRAM

W 77-63

−0.5

SOU

L 85-88

+27.5

TXSO

W 85-74

+16.5

L 55-74

−11.5

over 15under 15avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Cleveland St 1, Alabama A&M 1, even 3

Cleveland StBetterAlabama A&M

G O. Bronston TR10.3 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55

CLESmall

G S. Pissis10.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 38

G J. Lowery TR4.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30

Even

G J. Graham9.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 41

G R. Griffith TR3.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 18

Even

G J. Edwards TR6.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 9

G C. Stinson TR1.2 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 14

Even

G G. Kincy3.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 3

C D. Vorst TR7.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50

AAMUSmall

G B. Abdur-Rahman4.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 65

Cleveland StBetterAlabama A&M

CLE offense248th of 366 · -7.5

CLESmall

AAMU defense305th of 366 · -7.8

CLE defense356th of 366 · -10.1

Even

AAMU offense325th of 366 · -10.6

Backcourt-3.5 · 4 players

CLEBig

Backcourt-8.1 · 5 players

Frontcourt+0.2 · 1 player

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench+0.0 · 2 players

CLEBig

Bench-3.2 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterAAMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cleveland St

Guards

O. Bronston21 min · TRJ. Lowery15 min · TRR. Griffith14 min · TRC. Stinson8 min · TRA. Bruskotter7 min · TRM. BaysNew

Forwards

D. Jones2 min · TRG. HeadingsNewB. McCruterNew

Centers

D. Vorst21 min · TRB. WhiteNew

Alabama A&M

Guards

S. Pissis30 minJ. Graham25 minJ. Edwards23 min · TRG. Kincy19 minB. Abdur-Rahman12 minN. Johnson10 min · TR

Forwards

S. Onu7 minS. WalkerNewD. MeriwetherNewK. PaulNewD. BrownNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE78.6 #89

AAMU71.4 #261

Points per possession

CLE1.10 #133

AAMU1.05 #240

Pace (possessions)

CLE71.4 #56

AAMU67.6 #250

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE54.2 #62

AAMU49.2 #281

3-point %

CLE37.5 #21

AAMU35.0 #114

3-point attempt rate

CLE50.8 #11

AAMU34.0 #295

Free throw rate

CLE37.9 #105

AAMU45.4 #3

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE17.9 #264

AAMU16.5 #167

Offensive rebound rate

CLE27.0 #294

AAMU27.4 #283

Assists per game

CLE14.8 #100

AAMU11.2 #328

Defense

Points allowed

CLE88.6 #363

AAMU73.9 #152

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.24 #363

AAMU1.09 #212

Opponent effective FG%

CLE57.2 #360

AAMU52.1 #220

Opponent 3-point %

CLE36.1 #309

AAMU35.4 #272

Turnovers forced

CLE15.1 #279

AAMU16.6 #176

Defensive rebound rate

CLE63.4 #356

AAMU70.5 #138

Steals per game

CLE5.5 #289

AAMU6.2 #211

Blocks per game

CLE2.6 #297

AAMU2.7 #271

CLE		AAMU
Scoring
78.6 #89	Points per game	71.4 #261
1.10 #133	Points per possession	1.05 #240
71.4 #56	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #250
Shooting
54.2 #62	Effective FG%	49.2 #281
37.5 #21	3-point %	35.0 #114
50.8 #11	3-point attempt rate	34.0 #295
37.9 #105	Free throw rate	45.4 #3
Possessions
17.9 #264	Turnover rate	16.5 #167
27.0 #294	Offensive rebound rate	27.4 #283
14.8 #100	Assists per game	11.2 #328
Defense
88.6 #363	Points allowed	73.9 #152
1.24 #363	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #212
57.2 #360	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #220
36.1 #309	Opponent 3-point %	35.4 #272
15.1 #279	Turnovers forced	16.6 #176
63.4 #356	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #138
5.5 #289	Steals per game	6.2 #211
2.6 #297	Blocks per game	2.7 #271

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cleveland St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Wright St61–90
Wvs IU Indy101–93
L@ Robert Morris64–83
Lvs N Kentucky70–81
Lvs Purdue FW86–92

A week or more of rest.

Alabama A&M

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View55–74
Wvs Texas Southern85–74
Lvs Southern85–88
Wvs Grambling77–63
Lvs Alabama St88–89

A week or more of rest.

Cleveland State Vikings at Alabama A&M Bulldogs

What could decide it: AAMU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Cleveland St

Alabama A&M

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cleveland St

Alabama A&M