1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 12
  3. MTST @ BYU
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 12

Montana State Bobcats at BYU Cougars

Marriott Center · at BYU
#162MTSTMontana St
@
#24BYUBYU AP #25
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MTSTThis seasonBYU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BYU 86–66 · win probability BYU 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 151.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BYU has more of the edges

MTST 2, BYU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
MTST has played the 278th-hardest schedule, BYU the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BYUBig
MTST offense vs BYU defense
Offense 190th of 366 against a defense 33rd, on the model’s ratings
BYUBig
BYU offense vs MTST defense
Offense 24th of 366 against a defense 155th, on the model’s ratings
MTSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MTST 89%, BYU 35%. Transfers in: MTST 2, BYU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MTSTSmall
Three-pointers
MTST hits 36.1% and allows 34.3%; BYU hits 34.5% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 44.6% and 39.8% of their shots
BYUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MTST 27.0%, BYU 34.3%. Defensive: MTST 71.8%, BYU 70.3%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MTST plays 67.9 a game (233rd fastest), BYU 70.6 (90th). Faster games mean more points
BYUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MTST 30.2, BYU 34.4. Allowed: MTST 29.6, BYU 28.9
BYUSmall
Home court
BYU at home. This season: BYU 0-0 at home, MTST 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MTST 53.6 and allows 51.6; BYU 54.4 and allows 51.2
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MTST 14.8%, BYU 15.2%. Forced: MTST 15.6%, BYU 16.4%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BYU -20.8—
Total—151.8—
Projected score—MTST 65.5 · BYU 86.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBYU -12.2—
1H total71.0—
1H projected scoreMTST 29.4 · BYU 41.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

BYU has the better starters

Position by position: Montana St 0, BYU 2, even 3
Montana StBetterBYU
G J. Miller15.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2.8 ast Score 82
BYUSmall
G R. Wright18.1 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.6 ast Score 97
G C. Holden8.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Chandler TR9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 84
G J. Davis9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 59
BYUBig
F J. Kohler TR12.5 pts · 8.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 96
G S. Amunrud7.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53
Even
F J. Wahlin TR5.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 44
F C. King12.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 41
No call
F D. Baker7.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
Montana StBetterBYU
MTST offense190th of 366 · -5.8
BYUBig
BYU defense33rd of 366 · +3.5
MTST defense155th of 366 · -3.4
BYUBig
BYU offense24th of 366 · +7.2
Backcourt-0.8 · 4 players
BYUBig
Backcourt+6.9 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 1 player
BYUBig
Frontcourt+4.5 · 3 players
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
BYUBig
Bench-0.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestMTST betterBYU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Montana St
Guards
J. Miller36 minC. Holden28 minJ. Davis25 minS. Amunrud21 minH. Keene11 minD. Slater7 min · TR
Forwards
C. King29 minJ. Steppe15 minW. Mbatch11 minL. Praytor4 min · TRC. Rutherfurd1 minJ. StewardNew
BYU
Guards
R. Wright35 minC. Chandler27 min · TRN. PickensNew
Forwards
J. Kohler28 min · TRJ. Wahlin21 min · TRD. Baker20 minT. Betsey18 min · TRK. Mboup16 minB. KozlowskiNew
Centers
A. Stewart1 min · TRP. OstojicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MTSTBYU
Scoring
75.7 #151Points per game83.5 #22
1.12 #107Points per possession1.18 #32
67.9 #233Pace (possessions)70.6 #90
Shooting
53.6 #80Effective FG%54.4 #54
36.1 #523-point %34.5 #145
44.6 #763-point attempt rate39.8 #177
30.2 #303Free throw rate34.4 #198
Possessions
14.8 #53Turnover rate15.2 #78
27.0 #292Offensive rebound rate34.3 #61
10.6 #347Assists per game13.3 #192
Defense
73.5 #144Points allowed75.4 #202
1.08 #158Points allowed per possession1.07 #133
51.6 #193Opponent effective FG%51.2 #174
34.3 #198Opponent 3-point %35.3 #269
15.6 #242Turnovers forced16.4 #194
71.8 #75Defensive rebound rate70.3 #145
6.5 #171Steals per game7.2 #109
2.8 #263Blocks per game4.4 #40
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Montana St

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho74–78
  • W@ N Arizona76–65
  • Wvs Sacramento St82–61
  • Wvs Portland St84–69
  • L@ Idaho St76–91

A week or more of rest.

BYU

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas71–79
  • Lvs Houston66–73
  • Wvs West Virginia68–48
  • Wvs Kansas St105–91
  • Wvs Texas Tech82–76

A week or more of rest.