1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. MD @ GTWN
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Maryland Terrapins at Georgetown Hoyas

Capital One Arena · at Georgetown
#50MDMaryland
@
#64GTWNGeorgetown
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MDThis seasonGTWN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GTWN 75–73 · win probability GTWN 56%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GTWN has more of the edges

MD 1, GTWN 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GTWNBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MD 48.1 and allows 54.4; GTWN 49.6 and allows 50.0
GTWNBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MD 18.6%, GTWN 15.8%. Forced: MD 14.9%, GTWN 16.2%
GTWNSmall
Three-pointers
MD hits 31.7% and allows 36.3%; GTWN hits 31.8% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 46.9% and 35.2% of their shots
MDSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MD 33.8%, GTWN 32.5%. Defensive: MD 70.9%, GTWN 68.5%
GTWNSmall
Home court
GTWN at home. This season: GTWN 0-0 at home, MD 0-0 away
Even
GTWN offense vs MD defense
Offense 75th of 366 against a defense 34th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MD 36.4, GTWN 37.3. Allowed: MD 35.8, GTWN 33.9
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: MD plays 67.0 a game (281st fastest), GTWN 67.8 (238th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
MD has played the 28th-hardest schedule, GTWN the 47th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
MD offense vs GTWN defense
Offense 63rd of 366 against a defense 46th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MD 47%, GTWN 38%. Transfers in: MD 5, GTWN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GTWN -1.6—
Total—148.2—
Projected score—MD 73.3 · GTWN 74.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGTWN -0.8—
1H total69.3—
1H projected scoreMD 34.2 · GTWN 35.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Maryland has the better starters

Position by position: Maryland 2, Georgetown 0, even 3
MarylandBetterGeorgetown
G M. McNair TR16.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 84
Even
G V. Miller TR10.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 74
G A. Mills12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
MDSmall
F C. Williams8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 57
G B. Boswell TR6.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.1 ast Score 70
Even
F J. Parker TR9.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 79
F P. Payne17.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 100
Even
C V. Iwuchukwu11.6 pts · 6.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 89
F T. Buljan TR13.1 pts · 10.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 97
MDSmall
C C. Machot TR8.8 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 78
MarylandBetterGeorgetown
MD offense63rd of 366 · +2.4
Even
GTWN defense46th of 366 · +2.3
MD defense34th of 366 · +3.3
Even
GTWN offense75th of 366 · +1.3
Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players
MDBig
Backcourt+0.7 · 1 player
Frontcourt+11.4 · 2 players
MDBig
Frontcourt+6.5 · 4 players
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
GTWNBig
Bench+1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMD betterGTWN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Maryland
Guards
M. McNair37 min · TRA. Mills27 minB. Boswell27 min · TRD. Wagner24 min · TRM. Jabriel20 minG. Turkson11 min
Forwards
P. Payne27 minT. Buljan26 min · TRR. Jennings13 min · TRA. BrownNewB. OladotunNewA. TambedouNew
Centers
A. K'MedehoutoNew
Georgetown
Guards
V. Miller26 min · TRJ. Lowe19 min · TRE. Jackson18 min · TRK. Mulready17 minM. Moses1 minM. Van Raaphorst1 min
Forwards
C. Williams30 minJ. Parker22 min · TRJ. CaldwellNewP. PastreNew
Centers
V. Iwuchukwu23 minC. Machot20 min · TRS. Diouf4 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MDGTWN
Scoring
69.7 #291Points per game73.6 #215
1.04 #270Points per possession1.09 #165
67.0 #281Pace (possessions)67.8 #238
Shooting
48.1 #311Effective FG%49.6 #257
31.7 #2933-point %31.8 #285
46.9 #353-point attempt rate35.2 #271
36.4 #142Free throw rate37.3 #121
Possessions
18.6 #300Turnover rate15.8 #120
33.8 #73Offensive rebound rate32.5 #107
10.4 #351Assists per game14.8 #101
Defense
76.6 #232Points allowed72.9 #130
1.14 #312Points allowed per possession1.08 #147
54.4 #312Opponent effective FG%50.0 #96
36.3 #317Opponent 3-point %33.3 #139
14.9 #294Turnovers forced16.2 #211
70.9 #111Defensive rebound rate68.5 #228
4.8 #345Steals per game6.5 #182
2.9 #237Blocks per game3.6 #130
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Maryland

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-17 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa64–75
  • Wvs Oregon70–60
  • Lvs Illinois72–78
  • L@ Wisconsin45–78
  • Lvs Rutgers65–69

A week or more of rest.

Georgetown

16-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn51–67
  • Wvs Villanova78–64
  • Wvs DePaul63–56
  • Wvs Providence80–79
  • L@ St John's69–72

A week or more of rest.