1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. CIN @ DAY
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

Cincinnati Bearcats at Dayton Flyers

UD Arena · at Dayton
#30CINCincinnati
@
#91DAYDayton
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CINThis seasonDAY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CIN 75–70 · win probability CIN 69%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 144.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CIN has more of the edges

CIN 4, DAY 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CINBig
Three-pointers
CIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.0%; DAY hits 33.9% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 43.8% and 41.4% of their shots
DAYSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CIN 29.4, DAY 46.1. Allowed: CIN 30.0, DAY 35.5
CINSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CIN 30.6%, DAY 26.9%. Defensive: CIN 72.7%, DAY 71.2%
CINSmall
DAY offense vs CIN defense
Offense 109th of 366 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
DAYSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CIN 1%, DAY 31%. Transfers in: CIN 12, DAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
DAYSmall
Home court
DAY at home. This season: DAY 0-0 at home, CIN 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
CIN has played the 39th-hardest schedule, DAY the 90th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CINSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CIN 50.5 and allows 47.4; DAY 51.6 and allows 51.0
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CIN 17.0%, DAY 16.9%. Forced: CIN 18.2%, DAY 21.0%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: CIN plays 69.4 a game (152nd fastest), DAY 68.3 (213th). Faster games mean more points
Even
CIN offense vs DAY defense
Offense 49th of 366 against a defense 57th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CIN -5.6—
Total—144.6—
Projected score—CIN 75.1 · DAY 69.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCIN -3.5—
1H total67.6—
1H projected scoreCIN 35.5 · DAY 32.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Cincinnati has the better starters

Position by position: Cincinnati 3, Dayton 0, even 2
CincinnatiBetterDayton
G J. Campbell TR19.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 95
CINSmall
G Z. Lowery TR8.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 63
G T. Carson TR12.2 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 75
Even
G L. Joseph TR7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 78
G M. Collins TR17.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94
CINSmall
F G. Randall TR11.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 65
G T. Riley TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.4 ast Score 92
Even
F A. L'Etang11.9 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
F T. Tejada TR17.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91
CINSmall
F J. Simon5.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 63
CincinnatiBetterDayton
CIN offense49th of 366 · +3.7
Even
DAY defense57th of 366 · +1.4
CIN defense24th of 366 · +4.9
CINSmall
DAY offense109th of 366 · -1.7
Backcourt+12.2 · 4 players
CINBig
Backcourt+0.8 · 2 players
Frontcourt+4.0 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
Bench+6.3 · 5 players
CINBig
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCIN betterDAY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Cincinnati
Guards
J. Campbell35 min · TRT. Carson33 min · TRM. Collins31 min · TRT. Riley28 min · TRM. Colvin27 min · TRA. Fleming26 min · TR
Forwards
T. Tejada36 min · TRR. Allenspach25 min · TRJ. Hastings23 min · TRA. Elamin20 min · TRD. VadenNewD. IwezeNew
Dayton
Guards
Z. Lowery23 min · TRL. Joseph18 min · TRT. Perry17 min · TRE. Dickey2 minM. Grant1 minW. Maxwell1 min
Forwards
G. Randall32 min · TRA. L'Etang26 minJ. Simon18 minM. Thomas9 minD. Friery6 minJ. HaynesNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CINDAY
Scoring
73.1 #221Points per game74.1 #193
1.05 #243Points per possession1.09 #167
69.4 #152Pace (possessions)68.3 #213
Shooting
50.5 #213Effective FG%51.6 #168
33.9 #1753-point %33.9 #182
43.8 #943-point attempt rate41.4 #142
29.4 #323Free throw rate46.1 #2
Possessions
17.0 #203Turnover rate16.9 #198
30.6 #174Offensive rebound rate26.9 #298
16.6 #35Assists per game14.2 #134
Defense
67.6 #27Points allowed69.3 #50
0.97 #9Points allowed per possession1.01 #37
47.4 #27Opponent effective FG%51.0 #164
31.0 #35Opponent 3-point %35.4 #270
18.2 #89Turnovers forced21.0 #11
72.7 #45Defensive rebound rate71.2 #94
6.3 #208Steals per game8.2 #31
4.2 #53Blocks per game3.9 #90
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cincinnati

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCF65–66
  • Wvs Utah73–66
  • L@ TCU63–73
  • Wvs BYU90–68
  • Wvs Oklahoma St91–68

A week or more of rest.

Dayton

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois St55–61
  • W@ UNC Wilmington80–61
  • W@ Bradley80–66
  • Lvs VCU62–70
  • Wvs Saint Louis70–69

A week or more of rest.