1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. NWST @ LR
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

Northwestern State Demons at Little Rock Trojans

Jack Stephens Center · at Little Rock
#318NWSTN'Western St
@
#222LRLittle Rock
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NWSTThis seasonLR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LR 74–67 · win probability LR 74%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 140.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LR has more of the edges

NWST 1, LR 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
LRBig
NWST offense vs LR defense
Offense 340th of 366 against a defense 208th, on the model’s ratings
NWSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NWST 40.1, LR 27.7. Allowed: NWST 36.3, LR 33.1
LRSmall
Three-pointers
NWST hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%; LR hits 35.3% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 33.9% and 31.0% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
NWST has played the 292nd-hardest schedule, LR the 347th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LRSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NWST 26.1%, LR 31.5%. Defensive: NWST 67.4%, LR 63.4%
LRSmall
Home court
LR at home. This season: LR 0-0 at home, NWST 0-0 away
LRSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NWST 48.6 and allows 53.0; LR 49.4 and allows 51.8
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: NWST plays 65.4 a game (334th fastest), LR 67.6 (248th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NWST 18.3%, LR 18.4%. Forced: NWST 16.9%, LR 18.6%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NWST 28%, LR 12%. Transfers in: NWST 2, LR 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
LR offense vs NWST defense
Offense 238th of 366 against a defense 236th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LR -7.3—
Total—140.9—
Projected score—NWST 66.8 · LR 74.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLR -4.2—
1H total66.0—
1H projected scoreNWST 30.9 · LR 35.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Little Rock has the better starters

Position by position: N'Western St 0, Little Rock 3, even 2
N'Western StBetterLittle Rock
G I. Miles10.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 57
Even
G A. Clark TR15.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 62
G C. Larry2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 1
LRBig
G J. King TR14 pts · 3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 46
F D. Thomas TR5.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20
LRSmall
G T. Walters TR8.3 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37
F A. Osojnik TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
LRBig
F B. Hubbard TR16.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 80
F K. Turner3.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 34
No call
F T. Burgess7.4 pts · 3 reb · 1.2 ast Not ranked
N'Western StBetterLittle Rock
NWST offense340th of 366 · -11.5
LRBig
LR defense208th of 366 · -5.2
NWST defense236th of 366 · -6.2
Even
LR offense238th of 366 · -7.3
Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players
LRSmall
Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.2 · 3 players
LRBig
Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-2.3 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestNWST betterLR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N'Western St
Guards
I. Miles25 minC. Larry18 minK. SimpsonNewD. BrownNewA. AlmuttarNewB. RemoNew
Forwards
D. Thomas18 min · TRA. Osojnik16 min · TRK. Turner13 minN. OjukwuNewC. KellyNewJ. NesbittNew
Little Rock
Guards
A. Clark33 min · TRJ. King32 min · TRT. Walters28 min · TRA. Economou6 min · TRT. LaceyNewJ. LynNew
Forwards
B. Hubbard29 min · TRT. Burgess24 minP. Amadou Kante14 min · TRA. Bamisile14 min · TRJ. Felt13 min · TRR. OselkaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NWSTLR
Scoring
66.1 #346Points per game68.9 #300
1.01 #315Points per possession1.02 #306
65.4 #334Pace (possessions)67.6 #248
Shooting
48.6 #301Effective FG%49.4 #273
33.2 #2183-point %35.3 #96
33.9 #2983-point attempt rate31.0 #339
40.1 #58Free throw rate27.7 #345
Possessions
18.3 #286Turnover rate18.4 #292
26.1 #321Offensive rebound rate31.5 #143
11.3 #322Assists per game13.4 #183
Defense
72.9 #129Points allowed74.2 #160
1.12 #262Points allowed per possession1.10 #217
53.0 #270Opponent effective FG%51.8 #199
35.5 #278Opponent 3-point %34.4 #211
16.9 #160Turnovers forced18.6 #71
67.4 #286Defensive rebound rate63.4 #357
6.2 #215Steals per game7.5 #77
2.3 #321Blocks per game4.4 #45
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N'Western St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nicholls47–61
  • L@ UT Rio Grande62–74
  • L@ Texas A&M-CC59–71
  • Wvs Incarnate Word54–49
  • Wvs Hou Christian71–53

A week or more of rest.

Little Rock

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Lindenwood Lions62–72
  • Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles89–70
  • Lvs Morehead St70–76
  • Lvs SE Missouri65–70
  • Wvs UT Martin67–65

A week or more of rest.