1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. UCD @ SAC
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

UC Davis Aggies at Sacramento State Hornets

Hornet Pavilion · at Sacramento St
#182UCDUC Davis
@
#196SACSacramento St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UCDThis seasonSAC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SAC 77–76 · win probability SAC 56%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCD has more of the edges

UCD 4, SAC 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UCDBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UCD 51.8 and allows 51.7; SAC 47.0 and allows 55.0
UCDBig
Three-pointers
UCD hits 34.4% and allows 33.8%; SAC hits 31.9% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 43.5% and 35.6% of their shots
SACSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UCD 17.9%, SAC 14.1%. Forced: UCD 19.8%, SAC 17.1%
UCDSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UCD 25.2%, SAC 25.2%. Defensive: UCD 69.5%, SAC 66.6%
Context
Schedule so far
UCD has played the 189th-hardest schedule, SAC the 248th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCDSmall
UCD offense vs SAC defense
Offense 208th of 366 against a defense 262nd, on the model’s ratings
SACSmall
Home court
SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-0 at home, UCD 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UCD 40.5, SAC 41.2. Allowed: UCD 39.1, SAC 36.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UCD 57%, SAC 42%. Transfers in: UCD 4, SAC 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
SAC offense vs UCD defense
Offense 146th of 366 against a defense 171st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: UCD plays 71.8 a game (39th fastest), SAC 72.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SAC -1.8—
Total—152.8—
Projected score—UCD 75.5 · SAC 77.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSAC -0.9—
1H total71.4—
1H projected scoreUCD 35.2 · SAC 36.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Sacramento St has the better starters

Position by position: UC Davis 0, Sacramento St 2, even 3
UC DavisBetterSacramento St
G C. Sevilla13.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 45
Even
G M. Williams18.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.1 ast Score 56
G B. Fagbemi6.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4.3 ast Score 53
SACSmall
G L. Hughes TR17.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77
F I. Chappell8.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26
SACBig
G M. Wilson TR12.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 3.9 ast Score 76
F V. Abosi TR4.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 43
Even
G A. Madi7.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 44
F O. Suljanovic5.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 12
Even
F O. Grady TR9.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 21
UC DavisBetterSacramento St
UCD offense208th of 366 · -6.3
UCDSmall
SAC defense262nd of 366 · -6.8
UCD defense171st of 366 · -3.9
Even
SAC offense146th of 366 · -4.4
Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players
SACSmall
Backcourt+0.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt-3.5 · 3 players
SACSmall
Frontcourt-2.3 · 1 player
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
UCDSmall
Bench-3.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUCD betterSAC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UC Davis
Guards
C. Sevilla32 minB. Fagbemi26 minJ. Stokes14 minC. Rawlins4 minC. Massamba4 min · TRY. Esso-EssisNew
Forwards
I. Chappell24 minV. Abosi17 min · TRO. Suljanovic14 minJ. Margrave10 min · TRN. NobleNewJ. DabrowskiNew
Centers
A. Szymczyk7 min · TR
Sacramento St
Guards
M. Williams36 minL. Hughes32 min · TRM. Wilson27 min · TRA. Madi24 minT. Glover14 minR. Robinson11 min
Forwards
O. Grady31 min · TRR. Tutic23 min · TRS. Ciani10 min · TRM. HuntNewG. AsimakopoulosNew
Centers
J. Das Chagas7 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UCDSAC
Scoring
76.1 #139Points per game75.9 #144
1.06 #234Points per possession1.05 #258
71.8 #39Pace (possessions)72.6 #24
Shooting
51.8 #157Effective FG%47.0 #337
34.4 #1493-point %31.9 #284
43.5 #1023-point attempt rate35.6 #257
40.5 #53Free throw rate41.2 #41
Possessions
17.9 #267Turnover rate14.1 #26
25.2 #334Offensive rebound rate25.2 #336
15.1 #83Assists per game12.1 #275
Defense
76.0 #217Points allowed83.6 #352
1.06 #104Points allowed per possession1.15 #327
51.7 #197Opponent effective FG%55.0 #331
33.8 #172Opponent 3-point %35.1 #257
19.8 #29Turnovers forced17.1 #140
69.5 #182Defensive rebound rate66.6 #306
7.5 #81Steals per game7.5 #76
2.7 #276Blocks per game2.7 #280
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UC Davis

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Fullerton70–82
  • Wvs Santa Barbara79–73
  • L@ UC Irvine69–79
  • W@ Long Beach St76–70
  • Lvs Hawai'i73–77

A week or more of rest.

Sacramento St

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho45–68
  • Wvs Idaho St83–65
  • L@ Montana St61–82
  • L@ Montana73–81
  • Lvs Idaho80–86

A week or more of rest.