1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. CMU @ DAY
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Central Michigan Chippewas at Dayton Flyers

UD Arena · at Dayton
#270CMUC Michigan
@
#91DAYDayton
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CMUThis seasonDAY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAY 82–64 · win probability DAY 94%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 145.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAY has more of the edges

CMU 0, DAY 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DAYBig
CMU offense vs DAY defense
Offense 258th of 366 against a defense 57th, on the model’s ratings
DAYBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: CMU 31.4, DAY 46.1. Allowed: CMU 39.0, DAY 35.5
DAYBig
DAY offense vs CMU defense
Offense 109th of 366 against a defense 287th, on the model’s ratings
DAYBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CMU 18.1%, DAY 16.9%. Forced: CMU 16.9%, DAY 21.0%
DAYSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CMU 29.2%, DAY 26.9%. Defensive: CMU 65.7%, DAY 71.2%
Context
Schedule so far
CMU has played the 158th-hardest schedule, DAY the 90th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DAYSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CMU 51.8 and allows 54.0; DAY 51.6 and allows 51.0
DAYSmall
Home court
DAY at home. This season: DAY 0-0 at home, CMU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CMU 43%, DAY 31%. Transfers in: CMU 1, DAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
CMU hits 33.9% and allows 35.5%; DAY hits 33.9% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 34.0% and 41.4% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: CMU plays 68.3 a game (212th fastest), DAY 68.3 (213th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DAY -18.0—
Total—145.9—
Projected score—CMU 64 · DAY 82

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDAY -10.6—
1H total68.3—
1H projected scoreCMU 28.8 · DAY 39.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Dayton has the better starters

Position by position: C Michigan 0, Dayton 5, even 0
C MichiganBetterDayton
G J. Petty TR10.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35
DAYSmall
G Z. Lowery TR8.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 63
G P. Phat Brooks11.1 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 46
DAYSmall
G L. Joseph TR7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 78
G J. Whitaker5.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 11
DAYBig
F G. Randall TR11.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 65
G J. Kampen4.1 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16
DAYBig
F A. L'Etang11.9 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
F K. Garner7.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 35
DAYSmall
F J. Simon5.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 63
C MichiganBetterDayton
CMU offense258th of 366 · -8.0
DAYBig
DAY defense57th of 366 · +1.4
CMU defense287th of 366 · -7.2
DAYBig
DAY offense109th of 366 · -1.7
Backcourt-6.1 · 4 players
DAYBig
Backcourt+0.8 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.1 · 1 player
DAYBig
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCMU betterDAY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
C Michigan
Guards
J. Petty31 min · TRP. Phat Brooks29 minJ. Whitaker18 minJ. Kampen14 minJ. HackettNewU. AmeneNew
Forwards
K. Garner25 minT. AmbroseNewN. UsenNewJ. BascomNew
Centers
C. LuczynskiNewK. AburashedNewB. MendozaNew
Dayton
Guards
Z. Lowery23 min · TRL. Joseph18 min · TRT. Perry17 min · TRE. Dickey2 minM. Grant1 minW. Maxwell1 min
Forwards
G. Randall32 min · TRA. L'Etang26 minJ. Simon18 minM. Thomas9 minD. Friery6 minJ. HaynesNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CMUDAY
Scoring
71.7 #256Points per game74.1 #193
1.05 #248Points per possession1.09 #167
68.3 #212Pace (possessions)68.3 #213
Shooting
51.8 #158Effective FG%51.6 #168
33.9 #1813-point %33.9 #182
34.0 #2933-point attempt rate41.4 #142
31.4 #269Free throw rate46.1 #2
Possessions
18.1 #279Turnover rate16.9 #198
29.2 #230Offensive rebound rate26.9 #298
14.4 #120Assists per game14.2 #134
Defense
77.7 #258Points allowed69.3 #50
1.14 #301Points allowed per possession1.01 #37
54.0 #299Opponent effective FG%51.0 #164
35.5 #282Opponent 3-point %35.4 #270
16.9 #157Turnovers forced21.0 #11
65.7 #323Defensive rebound rate71.2 #94
6.1 #219Steals per game8.2 #31
4.1 #64Blocks per game3.9 #90
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Michigan

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Ball State69–85
  • Lvs Akron64–77
  • W@ Buffalo75–70
  • L@ Kent State81–83
  • Wvs W Michigan83–70

A week or more of rest.

Dayton

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois St55–61
  • W@ UNC Wilmington80–61
  • W@ Bradley80–66
  • Lvs VCU62–70
  • Wvs Saint Louis70–69

A week or more of rest.