Northern Iowa Panthers at Furman Paladins: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 6:30 PM ETTimmons Arena · at Furman

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Northern Iowa and Furman
UNI	This season	FUR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FUR 70–70 · win probability FUR 50%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FUR has more of the edges

UNI 3, FUR 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNI 14.5%, FUR 17.8%. Forced: UNI 18.0%, FUR 13.7%

Context

Schedule so far

UNI has played the 133rd-hardest schedule, FUR the 224th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UNISmall

FUR offense vs UNI defense

Offense 166th of 366 against a defense 92nd, on the model’s ratings

UNISmall

Three-pointers

UNI hits 34.7% and allows 29.1%; FUR hits 33.4% and allows 32.3%. Threes are 39.1% and 46.5% of their shots

FURSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNI 10%, FUR 46%. Transfers in: UNI 5, FUR 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

FURSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNI 21.8%, FUR 30.5%. Defensive: UNI 73.5%, FUR 71.8%

FURSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNI 25.6, FUR 32.7. Allowed: UNI 29.6, FUR 28.9

FURSmall

UNI offense vs FUR defense

Offense 204th of 366 against a defense 146th, on the model’s ratings

FURSmall

Home court

FUR at home. This season: FUR 0-0 at home, UNI 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: UNI plays 63.9 a game (361st fastest), FUR 67.2 (273rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNI 53.8 and allows 47.5; FUR 54.8 and allows 50.2

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	FUR -0.0	—
Total	—	140.1	—
Projected score	—	UNI 70 · FUR 70.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNI -0.1	—
1H total	65.6	—
1H projected score	UNI 32.8 · FUR 32.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNI LWLWL	19-16	54%	8-4	—
FUR LWWWW	16-16	50%	4-9	—

Venue/role: UNI away; FUR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNI UUOOU	14-21	40%	22-13
FUR OOOUO	16-16	50%	19-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNI	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
FUR	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Northern Iowa

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs GB	No recent meeting
Nov 13	@ MSU	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ OAK	W75–63WU

Furman

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ HC	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ BEL	W76–74WU
Nov 18	@ RAD	W81–64WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNI 1–0 FURUNI leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UNI 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 14, 2025-26	FUR 54 @ UNI 70	UNI -9.5	UNI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Northern Iowa

35 games played

Straight up

22-13

63% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-21

40% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1363%

W W W W W W L L W W L W W W L L L L L W L W W W L W W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

W L W L W W L L W W W W L W L L L L W W L W W W L W W L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-2140%

U U U U O U U O U U U U O U O O O U U O U U U O O O O U O U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsCSUN	W 86-57	-9.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	vsSDST	W 65-58	-10.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 14	vsFUR	W 70-54	-9.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 18	vsNIU	W 70-57	-19.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 22	@UCI	W 70-69	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 139
Nov 25	vsLUC	W 72-51	-8.5	W +12.5	134.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsTLSA	L 60-63	-2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsWICH	L 69-74	-1.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 143
Dec 13	vsOAK	W 75-63	-8.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 138
Dec 17	@UIC	W 60-54	-5.5	W +0.5	133.5	U 114
Dec 22	@SMC	L 58-63	+11.5	W +6.5	132.5	U 121
Dec 29	vsVAL	W 58-48	-8.5	W +1.5	131.5	U 106
Jan 1	vsINST	W 75-66	-10.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 4	@EVAN	W 62-48	-4.5	W +9.5	131.5	U 110
Jan 7	vsBEL	L 65-78	-2.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 143
Jan 10	@BRAD	L 69-75	+4.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 144
Jan 13	vsUIC	L 61-69	-6.5	L −14.5	128.5	O 130
Jan 17	@VAL	L 44-54	-1.5	L −11.5	130.5	U 98
Jan 21	@ILST	L 54-59	+6.5	W +1.5	132.5	U 113
Jan 24	vsMUR	W 81-76	+1.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 157
Jan 28	@SIU	L 50-65	-1.5	L −16.5	130.5	U 115
Jan 31	vsEVAN	W 71-55	-11.5	W +4.5	128.5	U 126
Feb 6	vsBRAD	W 61-49	-3.5	W +8.5	134.5	U 110
Feb 9	@MUR	W 89-60	+4.5	W +33.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 12	@BEL	L 86-91	+4.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 177
Feb 15	vsDRKE	W 86-62	-8.5	W +15.5	138.5	O 148
Feb 18	@INST	W 81-60	-5.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 21	vsSIU	L 57-59	-6.5	L −8.5	134.5	U 116
Feb 25	vsILST	L 69-71	-4.5	L −6.5	132.5	O 140
Mar 1	@DRKE	W 75-53	-4.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 128
Mar 5	vsEVAN	W 68-59	-13.5	L −4.5	127.5	U 127
Mar 6	vsILST	W 74-52	-1.5	W +20.5	130.5	U 126
Mar 7	vsBRAD	W 73-69	-4.5	L −0.5	127.5	O 142
Mar 8	vsUIC	W 84-69	-2.5	W +12.5	125.5	O 153
Mar 20	vsSJU	L 53-79	+10.5	L −15.5	133.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

+19.5

SDST

W 65-58

−3.5

FUR

W 70-54

+6.5

NIU

W 70-57

−6.5

UCI

W 70-69

+3.5

LUC

W 72-51

+12.5

TLSA

L 60-63

−5.5

WICH

L 69-74

−6.5

OAK

W 75-63

+3.5

UIC

W 60-54

+0.5

SMC

L 58-63

+6.5

VAL

W 58-48

+1.5

INST

W 75-66

−1.5

EVAN

W 62-48

+9.5

BEL

L 65-78

−15.5

BRAD

L 69-75

−1.5

UIC

L 61-69

−14.5

VAL

L 44-54

−11.5

ILST

L 54-59

+1.5

MUR

W 81-76

+6.5

SIU

L 50-65

−16.5

EVAN

W 71-55

+4.5

BRAD

W 61-49

+8.5

MUR

W 89-60

+33.5

BEL

L 86-91

−0.5

DRKE

W 86-62

+15.5

INST

W 81-60

+15.5

SIU

L 57-59

−8.5

ILST

L 69-71

−6.5

DRKE

W 75-53

+17.5

EVAN

W 68-59

−4.5

ILST

W 74-52

+20.5

BRAD

W 73-69

−0.5

UIC

W 84-69

+12.5

SJU

L 53-79

−15.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

−10.5

SDST

W 65-58

−27.5

FUR

W 70-54

−17.5

NIU

W 70-57

−19.5

UCI

W 70-69

+0.5

LUC

W 72-51

−11.5

TLSA

L 60-63

−14.5

WICH

L 69-74

+7.5

OAK

W 75-63

−11.5

UIC

W 60-54

−19.5

SMC

L 58-63

−11.5

VAL

W 58-48

−25.5

INST

W 75-66

+5.5

EVAN

W 62-48

−21.5

BEL

L 65-78

+5.5

BRAD

L 69-75

+12.5

UIC

L 61-69

+1.5

VAL

L 44-54

−32.5

ILST

L 54-59

−19.5

MUR

W 81-76

+11.5

SIU

L 50-65

−15.5

EVAN

W 71-55

−2.5

BRAD

W 61-49

−24.5

MUR

W 89-60

+3.5

BEL

L 86-91

+38.5

DRKE

W 86-62

+9.5

INST

W 81-60

+4.5

SIU

L 57-59

−18.5

ILST

L 69-71

+7.5

DRKE

W 75-53

−9.5

EVAN

W 68-59

−0.5

ILST

W 74-52

−4.5

BRAD

W 73-69

+14.5

UIC

W 84-69

+27.5

SJU

L 53-79

−1.5

over 14under 21avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Furman

32 games played

Straight up

19-13

59% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1359%

L L L W W L W W W W W L W W W L L W W W L L L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

L L L W W L W W L L L L W W W L L W L L W L L W L W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

O U U O U U O O U O U U U U O U O O O U O U U O O U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHPU	L 71-97	+3.5	L −22.5	153.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsTROY	L 61-64	-2.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 125
Nov 14	@UNI	L 54-70	+9.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 23	vsQUC	W 90-79	-8.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 27	vsRICH	W 73-72	+3.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 145
Nov 28	vsILST	L 65-72	+3.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 137
Dec 3	@ELON	W 97-88	-1.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 185
Dec 6	vsHARV	W 79-69	-4.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 18	@MAN	W 75-68	-10.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 143
Dec 21	vsCHSO	W 84-76	-10.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 160
Dec 31	vsMER	W 74-72	-2.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 3	vsWCU	L 77-80	-8.5	L −11.5	157.5	U 157
Jan 7	@UTC	W 78-67	-2.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 145
Jan 10	vsVMI	W 69-48	-12.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 117
Jan 14	@SAM	W 77-73	-1.5	W +2.5	149.5	O 150
Jan 17	vsWOF	L 70-74	-4.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 144
Jan 21	@CIT	L 75-77	-11.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 23	@UNCG	W 89-66	-4.5	W +18.5	150.5	O 155
Jan 29	vsSAM	W 78-73	-5.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 151
Feb 1	vsUTC	W 75-70	-7.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 145
Feb 4	@ETSU	L 71-75	+5.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 146
Feb 8	vsUNCG	L 64-67	-10.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 131
Feb 11	@MER	L 64-69	+3.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 133
Feb 14	@VMI	W 90-72	-11.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 18	vsETSU	L 69-78	-1.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	@WOF	W 76-67	-1.5	W +7.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 25	vsCIT	W 72-51	-15.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 123
Feb 28	@WCU	L 67-86	-1.5	L −20.5	147.5	O 153
Mar 7	vsSAM	W 86-81	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 167
Mar 8	vsUNCG	W 81-75	-5.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 156
Mar 9	vsETSU	W 76-61	+1.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 137
Mar 20	vsCONN	L 71-82	+20.5	W +9.5	133.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HPU

L 71-97

−22.5

TROY

L 61-64

−5.5

UNI

L 54-70

−6.5

QUC

W 90-79

+2.5

RICH

W 73-72

+4.5

ILST

L 65-72

−3.5

ELON

W 97-88

+7.5

HARV

W 79-69

+5.5

MAN

W 75-68

−3.5

CHSO

W 84-76

−2.5

MER

W 74-72

−0.5

WCU

L 77-80

−11.5

UTC

W 78-67

+8.5

VMI

W 69-48

+8.5

SAM

W 77-73

+2.5

WOF

L 70-74

−8.5

CIT

L 75-77

−13.5

UNCG

W 89-66

+18.5

SAM

W 78-73

−0.5

UTC

W 75-70

−2.5

ETSU

L 71-75

+1.5

UNCG

L 64-67

−13.5

MER

L 64-69

−1.5

VMI

W 90-72

+6.5

ETSU

L 69-78

−10.5

WOF

W 76-67

+7.5

CIT

W 72-51

+5.5

WCU

L 67-86

−20.5

SAM

W 86-81

+6.5

UNCG

W 81-75

+0.5

ETSU

W 76-61

+16.5

CONN

L 71-82

+9.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HPU

L 71-97

+14.5

TROY

L 61-64

−27.5

UNI

L 54-70

−17.5

QUC

W 90-79

+15.5

RICH

W 73-72

−2.5

ILST

L 65-72

−8.5

ELON

W 97-88

+31.5

HARV

W 79-69

+6.5

MAN

W 75-68

−11.5

CHSO

W 84-76

+4.5

MER

W 74-72

−8.5

WCU

L 77-80

−0.5

UTC

W 78-67

−1.5

VMI

W 69-48

−32.5

SAM

W 77-73

+0.5

WOF

L 70-74

−5.5

CIT

L 75-77

+9.5

UNCG

W 89-66

+4.5

SAM

W 78-73

+1.5

UTC

W 75-70

−1.5

ETSU

L 71-75

+4.5

UNCG

L 64-67

−18.5

MER

L 64-69

−18.5

VMI

W 90-72

+13.5

ETSU

L 69-78

+6.5

WOF

W 76-67

−10.5

CIT

W 72-51

−20.5

WCU

L 67-86

+5.5

SAM

W 86-81

+19.5

UNCG

W 81-75

+8.5

ETSU

W 76-61

−2.5

CONN

L 71-82

+19.5

over 16under 16avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Furman has the better starters

Position by position: Northern Iowa 1, Furman 2, even 2

Northern IowaBetterFurman

G T. McCubbin TR9.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 21

FURBig

G J. Bell TR12.3 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 76

G G. Uelmen TR17.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

UNIBig

G C. Bowser5.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31

G C. Vis TR5.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51

Even

G L. Toews TR6.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 45

F I. Johnson-Arigu TR10.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 67

Even

F M. Kell TR13.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59

F I. Smikle TR2.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14

FURBig

F C. Johnston9.6 pts · 8.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 66

Northern IowaBetterFurman

UNI offense204th of 366 · -6.3

FURSmall

FUR defense146th of 366 · -3.2

UNI defense92nd of 366 · -0.3

UNISmall

FUR offense166th of 366 · -5.1

Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players

UNISmall

Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.7 · 2 players

FURSmall

Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players

Bench-1.6 · 2 players

Even

Bench-2.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUNI betterFUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Northern Iowa

Guards

T. McCubbin30 min · TRG. Uelmen29 min · TRC. Vis15 min · TRG. Hutchins7 minR. BornNewC. CourbatNew

Forwards

I. Johnson-Arigu22 min · TRI. Smikle14 min · TRK. Pock12 minJ. WilsonNewJ. IsebaertNewW. GerdesNew

Furman

Guards

J. Bell26 min · TRC. Bowser23 minL. Toews21 min · TRA. Franklin11 minC. O'Neal11 minG. LewisNew

Forwards

M. Kell30 min · TRC. Johnston29 minM. Smith12 minJ. Butler9 min · TRO. Ritger7 minD. MolnarNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNI68.6 #303

FUR74.9 #164

Points per possession

UNI1.08 #198

FUR1.11 #114

Pace (possessions)

UNI63.9 #361

FUR67.2 #273

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNI53.8 #73

FUR54.8 #43

3-point %

UNI34.7 #136

FUR33.4 #204

3-point attempt rate

UNI39.1 #189

FUR46.5 #40

Free throw rate

UNI25.6 #362

FUR32.7 #246

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNI14.5 #41

FUR17.8 #260

Offensive rebound rate

UNI21.8 #357

FUR30.5 #180

Assists per game

UNI14.6 #114

FUR14.9 #91

Defense

Points allowed

UNI62.5 #2

FUR72.5 #116

Points allowed per possession

UNI0.98 #12

FUR1.08 #163

Opponent effective FG%

UNI47.5 #31

FUR50.2 #112

Opponent 3-point %

UNI29.1 #3

FUR32.3 #75

Turnovers forced

UNI18.0 #97

FUR13.7 #342

Defensive rebound rate

UNI73.5 #24

FUR71.8 #72

Steals per game

UNI6.2 #212

FUR4.4 #357

Blocks per game

UNI3.1 #211

FUR3.3 #183

UNI		FUR
Scoring
68.6 #303	Points per game	74.9 #164
1.08 #198	Points per possession	1.11 #114
63.9 #361	Pace (possessions)	67.2 #273
Shooting
53.8 #73	Effective FG%	54.8 #43
34.7 #136	3-point %	33.4 #204
39.1 #189	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #40
25.6 #362	Free throw rate	32.7 #246
Possessions
14.5 #41	Turnover rate	17.8 #260
21.8 #357	Offensive rebound rate	30.5 #180
14.6 #114	Assists per game	14.9 #91
Defense
62.5 #2	Points allowed	72.5 #116
0.98 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #163
47.5 #31	Opponent effective FG%	50.2 #112
29.1 #3	Opponent 3-point %	32.3 #75
18.0 #97	Turnovers forced	13.7 #342
73.5 #24	Defensive rebound rate	71.8 #72
6.2 #212	Steals per game	4.4 #357
3.1 #211	Blocks per game	3.3 #183

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Northern Iowa

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs St John's53–79
Wvs UIC84–69
Wvs Bradley73–69
Wvs Illinois St74–52
Wvs Evansville68–59

A week or more of rest.

Furman

19-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn71–82
Wvs ETSU76–61
Wvs UNC Greensboro81–75
Wvs Samford86–81
L@ W Carolina67–86

A week or more of rest.

Northern Iowa Panthers at Furman Paladins

What could decide it: FUR has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Northern Iowa

Furman

Furman has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Northern Iowa

Furman