Indiana State Sycamores at Ball State Cardinals: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 7:00 PM ETWorthen Arena · at Ball State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Indiana St and Ball State
INST	This season	BALL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BALL 75–71 · win probability BALL 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BALL has more of the edges

INST 2, BALL 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BALLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: INST 19.5%, BALL 16.2%. Forced: INST 14.9%, BALL 18.7%

INSTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: INST 52.8 and allows 50.2; BALL 47.0 and allows 52.7

INSTSmall

Three-pointers

INST hits 31.6% and allows 31.2%; BALL hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 45.2% and 39.4% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: INST plays 69.7 a game (131st fastest), BALL 65.9 (317th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

INST has played the 149th-hardest schedule, BALL the 236th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BALLSmall

Home court

BALL at home. This season: BALL 0-0 at home, INST 0-0 away

BALLSmall

BALL offense vs INST defense

Offense 221st of 366 against a defense 267th, on the model’s ratings

BALLSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: INST 0%, BALL 25%. Transfers in: INST 6, BALL 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: INST 26.2%, BALL 27.1%. Defensive: INST 68.2%, BALL 69.0%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: INST 27.4, BALL 31.6. Allowed: INST 28.7, BALL 32.1

Even

INST offense vs BALL defense

Offense 162nd of 366 against a defense 159th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	BALL -4.0	—
Total	—	146.7	—
Projected score	—	INST 71.4 · BALL 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BALL -2.2	—
1H total	68.6	—
1H projected score	INST 33.2 · BALL 35.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
INST LLLWW	18-12	60%	10-5	—
BALL WWWWW	14-15	48%	7-5	—

Venue/role: INST away; BALL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
INST OOUUU	13-17	43%	9-21
BALL UOUOO	9-20	31%	10-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INST	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
BALL	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Indiana St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs MILW	W70–68WU
Nov 20	vs SFA	No recent meeting
Dec 2	vs SIUE	W64–55WU

Ball State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ SMU	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ FSU	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ USI	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

INST 4–1 BALLINST leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · INST has won the last 4 meetings · INST 3-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 22, 2025-26	BALL 52 @ INST 70	INST -7.5	INST W
Nov 16, 2024-25	INST 94 @ BALL 84	BALL -5.5	INST W
Dec 16, 2023-24	INST 83 vs BALL 72	BALL +15.5	BALL W
Nov 12, 2022-23	BALL 71 @ INST 83	INST -7.5	INST W
Nov 27, 2021-22	INST 75 @ BALL 97	BALL +1	BALL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Indiana St

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L W L W W L L W W L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1260%

L W L W W W L W W L L W W W L W W W L W L W L W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U U O O U U O U O O U U O U U U O O O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLT	L 76-92	+4.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 10	@SIUE	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DUKE	L 62-100	+37.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 19	vsLT	W 60-51	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 22	vsBALL	W 70-52	-7.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 26	@LT	L 73-75	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsALCN	L 74-81	-12.5	L −19.5	152.5	O 155
Dec 7	vsUSI	W 77-55	-11.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 14	@MILW	W 70-68	+2.5	W +4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 18	vsBRAD	L 99-108	+5.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 207
Dec 21	@ILST	L 65-85	+13.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 150
Dec 29	vsBEL	W 81-80	+7.5	W +8.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	@UNI	L 66-75	+10.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 4	@DRKE	L 72-74	+6.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 10	vsEVAN	L 69-72	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 14	vsILST	W 94-89	+6.5	W +11.5	148.5	O 183
Jan 17	@MUR	L 81-85	+11.5	W +7.5	167.5	U 166
Jan 21	@BRAD	L 68-75	+8.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	vsDRKE	L 62-76	-3.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 138
Jan 27	@UIC	L 74-76	+5.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 31	vsVAL	L 72-76	-2.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 3	@EVAN	W 84-63	-1.5	W +19.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 9	vsSIU	L 65-80	+1.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 145
Feb 12	vsMUR	L 72-74	+3.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 146
Feb 15	@VAL	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsUNI	L 60-81	+5.5	L −15.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 21	@BEL	L 70-87	+12.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 25	@SIU	L 55-66	+8.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 121
Mar 1	vsUIC	W 79-63	+3.5	W +19.5	144.5	U 142
Mar 5	vsVAL	L 62-63	+2.5	W +1.5	140.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

−11.5

SIUE

W 64-55

+11.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−0.5

W 60-51

+5.5

BALL

W 70-52

+10.5

L 73-75

+0.5

ALCN

L 74-81

−19.5

USI

W 77-55

+10.5

MILW

W 70-68

+4.5

BRAD

L 99-108

−3.5

ILST

L 65-85

−6.5

BEL

W 81-80

+8.5

UNI

L 66-75

+1.5

DRKE

L 72-74

+4.5

EVAN

L 69-72

−10.5

ILST

W 94-89

+11.5

MUR

L 81-85

+7.5

BRAD

L 68-75

+1.5

DRKE

L 62-76

−17.5

UIC

L 74-76

+3.5

VAL

L 72-76

−6.5

EVAN

W 84-63

+19.5

SIU

L 65-80

−13.5

MUR

L 72-74

+1.5

VAL

L 75-76

+3.5

UNI

L 60-81

−15.5

BEL

L 70-87

−4.5

SIU

L 55-66

−2.5

UIC

W 79-63

+19.5

VAL

L 62-63

+1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

+15.5

SIUE

W 64-55

−40.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−1.5

W 60-51

−36.5

BALL

W 70-52

−32.5

L 73-75

+6.5

ALCN

L 74-81

+2.5

USI

W 77-55

−26.5

MILW

W 70-68

−21.5

BRAD

L 99-108

+56.5

ILST

L 65-85

−2.5

BEL

W 81-80

+1.5

UNI

L 66-75

+5.5

DRKE

L 72-74

−3.5

EVAN

L 69-72

−4.5

ILST

W 94-89

+34.5

MUR

L 81-85

−1.5

BRAD

L 68-75

−12.5

DRKE

L 62-76

−13.5

UIC

L 74-76

+2.5

VAL

L 72-76

+2.5

EVAN

W 84-63

+1.5

SIU

L 65-80

−1.5

MUR

L 72-74

−17.5

VAL

L 75-76

+5.5

UNI

L 60-81

+4.5

BEL

L 70-87

+0.5

SIU

L 55-66

−26.5

UIC

W 79-63

−2.5

VAL

L 62-63

−15.5

over 13under 17avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ball State

29 games played

Straight up

10-19

34% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-20

31% overs · avg −5.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1934%

W L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W W W L L W L L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1548%

W L L L L L W L W W L L L W W W L L L L W L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-2031%

U U U U O U O U U U O O U O O U U U U U U U U U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUL	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 11	@WIS	L 55-86	+26.5	L −4.5	156.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsLR	L 62-68	-2.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 22	@INST	L 52-70	+7.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 28	vsMONM	L 73-80	+2.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 153
Nov 29	@LAF	L 37-55	-1.5	L −19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsLEM	W 96-85	+1.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 181
Dec 3	@EVAN	L 52-64	+6.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 9	vsSDST	L 64-68	+5.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 132
Dec 14	@CAM	L 64-69	+8.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 133
Dec 20	vsM-OH	L 77-86	+7.5	L −1.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 3	@BUF	L 72-85	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 157
Jan 6	vsEMU	L 52-74	-1.5	L −23.5	137.5	U 126
Jan 10	@MASS	L 71-79	+10.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 13	@AKR	L 77-87	+20.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 16	vsOHIO	W 76-71	+5.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 147
Jan 20	@CMU	W 68-67	-1.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 24	vsNIU	W 58-53	-5.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 111
Jan 31	@TOL	L 55-73	+8.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 3	@BGSU	L 52-77	+11.5	L −13.5	137.5	U 129
Feb 7	@ULM	W 73-68	-4.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 141
Feb 11	vsBUF	L 53-63	-1.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 116
Feb 14	vsKENT	L 68-75	+7.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 17	@OHIO	L 57-69	+9.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 126
Feb 20	vsAKR	L 65-78	+13.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 143
Feb 24	vsMASS	W 74-73	+3.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 147
Feb 28	@NIU	W 79-43	+1.5	W +37.5	133.5	U 122
Mar 3	@WMU	W 74-71	+1.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 6	vsCMU	W 85-69	-2.5	W +13.5	134.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 75-64

+6.5

WIS

L 55-86

−4.5

L 62-68

−8.5

INST

L 52-70

−10.5

MONM

L 73-80

−4.5

LAF

L 37-55

−19.5

LEM

W 96-85

+12.5

EVAN

L 52-64

−5.5

SDST

L 64-68

+1.5

CAM

L 64-69

+3.5

M-OH

L 77-86

−1.5

BUF

L 72-85

−6.5

EMU

L 52-74

−23.5

MASS

L 71-79

+2.5

AKR

L 77-87

+10.5

OHIO

W 76-71

+10.5

CMU

W 68-67

−0.5

NIU

W 58-53

−0.5

TOL

L 55-73

−9.5

BGSU

L 52-77

−13.5

ULM

W 73-68

+0.5

BUF

L 53-63

−11.5

KENT

L 68-75

+0.5

OHIO

L 57-69

−2.5

AKR

L 65-78

+0.5

MASS

W 74-73

+4.5

NIU

W 79-43

+37.5

WMU

W 74-71

+4.5

CMU

W 85-69

+13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 75-64

−2.5

WIS

L 55-86

−15.5

L 62-68

−16.5

INST

L 52-70

−32.5

MONM

L 73-80

+16.5

LAF

L 37-55

−48.5

LEM

W 96-85

+40.5

EVAN

L 52-64

−20.5

SDST

L 64-68

−10.5

CAM

L 64-69

−12.5

M-OH

L 77-86

+15.5

BUF

L 72-85

+11.5

EMU

L 52-74

−11.5

MASS

L 71-79

+2.5

AKR

L 77-87

+11.5

OHIO

W 76-71

−0.5

CMU

W 68-67

−7.5

NIU

W 58-53

−30.5

TOL

L 55-73

−18.5

BGSU

L 52-77

−8.5

ULM

W 73-68

−2.5

BUF

L 53-63

−25.5

KENT

L 68-75

−0.5

OHIO

L 57-69

−19.5

AKR

L 65-78

−4.5

MASS

W 74-73

+3.5

NIU

W 79-43

−11.5

WMU

W 74-71

+6.5

CMU

W 85-69

+19.5

over 9under 20avg −5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ball State has the better starters

Position by position: Indiana St 0, Ball State 2, even 3

Indiana StBetterBall State

G K. Gregory TR16.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 70

Even

G Z. Collins TR11.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast Score 73

G M. White TR10.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 58

Even

G S. Blake TR10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 53

G M. Mitchell TR11.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 28

BALLSmall

G J. Guy-King TR10 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.7 ast Score 50

G D. Paschal TR3.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 16

BALLBig

G K. Parker TR10.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

G C. Puryear TR0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F M. Jones4.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 9

Indiana StBetterBall State

INST offense162nd of 366 · -4.8

Even

BALL defense159th of 366 · -3.5

INST defense267th of 366 · -6.8

Even

BALL offense221st of 366 · -6.7

Backcourt-3.1 · 5 players

BALLBig

Backcourt+0.6 · 4 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-3.5 · 1 player

Bench-0.1 · 1 player

INSTSmall

Bench-1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestINST betterBALL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Indiana St

Guards

K. Gregory32 min · TRM. White31 min · TRM. Mitchell27 min · TRD. Paschal12 min · TRC. Puryear3 min · TRE. McQuillanNew

Forwards

A. Vlajic1 min · TRJ. CooperNewA. CalamitaNewK. LandNewK. SpeckmanNew

Ball State

Guards

Z. Collins31 min · TRS. Blake29 min · TRJ. Guy-King23 min · TRK. Parker21 min · TRJ. Hart19 minT. Lewis18 min · TR

Forwards

M. Jones31 minB. Durodola19 min · TRK. WrightNewK. McGrewNew

Centers

J. Smith9 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

INST71.7 #254

BALL66.1 #345

Points per possession

INST1.03 #295

BALL1.00 #325

Pace (possessions)

INST69.7 #131

BALL65.9 #317

Shooting

Effective FG%

INST52.8 #110

BALL47.0 #336

3-point %

INST31.6 #305

BALL31.4 #312

3-point attempt rate

INST45.2 #62

BALL39.4 #186

Free throw rate

INST27.4 #349

BALL31.6 #263

Possessions

Turnover rate

INST19.5 #338

BALL16.2 #151

Offensive rebound rate

INST26.2 #317

BALL27.1 #290

Assists per game

INST17.1 #22

BALL12.4 #259

Defense

Points allowed

INST75.1 #193

BALL71.4 #88

Points allowed per possession

INST1.08 #161

BALL1.09 #184

Opponent effective FG%

INST50.2 #110

BALL52.7 #253

Opponent 3-point %

INST31.2 #37

BALL34.8 #239

Turnovers forced

INST14.9 #299

BALL18.7 #60

Defensive rebound rate

INST68.2 #245

BALL69.0 #204

Steals per game

INST6.0 #242

BALL7.5 #88

Blocks per game

INST3.3 #176

BALL2.7 #286

INST		BALL
Scoring
71.7 #254	Points per game	66.1 #345
1.03 #295	Points per possession	1.00 #325
69.7 #131	Pace (possessions)	65.9 #317
Shooting
52.8 #110	Effective FG%	47.0 #336
31.6 #305	3-point %	31.4 #312
45.2 #62	3-point attempt rate	39.4 #186
27.4 #349	Free throw rate	31.6 #263
Possessions
19.5 #338	Turnover rate	16.2 #151
26.2 #317	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #290
17.1 #22	Assists per game	12.4 #259
Defense
75.1 #193	Points allowed	71.4 #88
1.08 #161	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #184
50.2 #110	Opponent effective FG%	52.7 #253
31.2 #37	Opponent 3-point %	34.8 #239
14.9 #299	Turnovers forced	18.7 #60
68.2 #245	Defensive rebound rate	69.0 #204
6.0 #242	Steals per game	7.5 #88
3.3 #176	Blocks per game	2.7 #286

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Indiana St

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-17 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Valparaiso62–63
Wvs UIC79–63
L@ S Illinois55–66
L@ Belmont70–87
Lvs Northern Iowa60–81

A week or more of rest.

Ball State

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-11 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs C Michigan85–69
W@ W Michigan74–71
W@ N Illinois79–43
Wvs UMass74–73
Lvs Akron65–78

A week or more of rest.

Indiana State Sycamores at Ball State Cardinals

What could decide it: BALL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Indiana St

Ball State

Ball State has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Indiana St

Ball State