1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. TROY @ FSU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Troy Trojans at Florida State Seminoles

Tucker Center · at Florida St
#147TROYTroy
@
#81FSUFlorida St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TROYThis seasonFSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FSU 83–70 · win probability FSU 87%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FSU has more of the edges

TROY 2, FSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TROY 17.3%, FSU 15.2%. Forced: TROY 16.7%, FSU 19.0%
TROYSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TROY 34.5%, FSU 30.8%. Defensive: TROY 68.3%, FSU 65.9%
Context
Schedule so far
TROY has played the 166th-hardest schedule, FSU the 73rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
TROYSmall
Three-pointers
TROY hits 33.0% and allows 31.6%; FSU hits 33.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 45.9% and 50.6% of their shots
FSUSmall
FSU offense vs TROY defense
Offense 73rd of 366 against a defense 162nd, on the model’s ratings
FSUSmall
Home court
FSU at home. This season: FSU 0-0 at home, TROY 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: TROY plays 69.6 a game (141st fastest), FSU 71.8 (41st). Faster games mean more points
FSUSmall
TROY offense vs FSU defense
Offense 143rd of 366 against a defense 98th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: TROY 51.5 and allows 50.2; FSU 52.3 and allows 52.2
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: TROY 36.2, FSU 34.7. Allowed: TROY 31.4, FSU 32.7
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TROY 11%, FSU 9%. Transfers in: TROY 6, FSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FSU -12.8—
Total—152.4—
Projected score—TROY 69.8 · FSU 82.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFSU -7.5—
1H total71.3—
1H projected scoreTROY 31.9 · FSU 39.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Troy 2, Florida St 2, even 1
TroyBetterFlorida St
G R. Davis TR9.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 14
FSUBig
G K. Taylor TR19.8 pts · 5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 90
G D. Oday TR18.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 95
TROYSmall
G A. Robinson TR8.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 3 ast Score 73
G J. Hutchinson TR12.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 76
Even
F S. Rancik TR12.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 82
F C. Diggs TR10.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59
TROYSmall
F C. Schwieger TR5.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
F K. Kiel3.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 1 ast Score 23
FSUBig
F S. Abaev TR7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68
TroyBetterFlorida St
TROY offense143rd of 366 · -4.3
Even
FSU defense98th of 366 · -0.7
TROY defense162nd of 366 · -3.6
FSUSmall
FSU offense73rd of 366 · +1.4
Backcourt+1.4 · 3 players
FSUSmall
Backcourt+3.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
FSUSmall
Frontcourt+1.4 · 3 players
Bench-2.0 · 4 players
FSUSmall
Bench-0.2 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestTROY betterFSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Troy
Guards
R. Davis31 min · TRD. Oday30 min · TRJ. Hutchinson29 min · TRH. Awata2 minJ. KontuniemiNewR. ValakouNew
Forwards
C. Diggs23 min · TRK. Kiel16 minM. Ikegwuruka13 min · TRS. Walters9 min · TRE. Griffin5 min
Centers
A. PachecoNew
Florida St
Guards
K. Taylor36 min · TRA. Robinson27 min · TRJ. Crawford1 minJ. LopezNewA. RobinsonNewB. BassNew
Forwards
S. Rancik28 min · TRC. Schwieger20 min · TRS. Abaev16 min · TRA. Swinton16 minC. PaulNew
Centers
M. PonderNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TROYFSU
Scoring
77.3 #110Points per game80.4 #58
1.11 #113Points per possession1.12 #101
69.6 #141Pace (possessions)71.8 #41
Shooting
51.5 #171Effective FG%52.3 #132
33.0 #2293-point %33.1 #226
45.9 #473-point attempt rate50.6 #13
36.2 #147Free throw rate34.7 #191
Possessions
17.3 #226Turnover rate15.2 #80
34.5 #59Offensive rebound rate30.8 #170
15.0 #86Assists per game14.3 #124
Defense
74.5 #178Points allowed77.9 #264
1.07 #128Points allowed per possession1.08 #178
50.2 #111Opponent effective FG%52.2 #226
31.6 #47Opponent 3-point %34.6 #228
16.7 #173Turnovers forced19.0 #51
68.3 #243Defensive rebound rate65.9 #319
7.2 #107Steals per game7.9 #44
3.3 #169Blocks per game3.9 #84
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Troy

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nebraska47–76
  • Wvs GA Southern77–61
  • Wvs Southern Miss78–70
  • Wvs UL Monroe80–65
  • Wvs Louisiana78–59

A week or more of rest.

Florida St

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke79–80
  • Wvs California95–89
  • Wvs SMU91–78
  • W@ Pitt75–74
  • W@ Georgia Tech80–71

A week or more of rest.