1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. AMCC @ FSU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders at Florida State Seminoles

Tucker Center · at Florida St
#238AMCCTexas A&M-CC
@
#81FSUFlorida St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
AMCCThis seasonFSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FSU 82–65 · win probability FSU 93%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 146.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FSU has more of the edges

AMCC 2, FSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FSUBig
AMCC offense vs FSU defense
Offense 303rd of 366 against a defense 98th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
AMCC has played the 245th-hardest schedule, FSU the 73rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
AMCCBig
Three-pointers
AMCC hits 35.0% and allows 31.6%; FSU hits 33.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 31.4% and 50.6% of their shots
AMCCBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: AMCC 31.7%, FSU 30.8%. Defensive: AMCC 71.2%, FSU 65.9%
FSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: AMCC 19.4%, FSU 15.2%. Forced: AMCC 19.0%, FSU 19.0%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: AMCC plays 66.9 a game (284th fastest), FSU 71.8 (41st). Faster games mean more points
FSUSmall
FSU offense vs AMCC defense
Offense 73rd of 366 against a defense 176th, on the model’s ratings
FSUSmall
Home court
FSU at home. This season: FSU 0-0 at home, AMCC 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: AMCC 41.1, FSU 34.7. Allowed: AMCC 46.3, FSU 32.7
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: AMCC 19%, FSU 9%. Transfers in: AMCC 4, FSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: AMCC 49.5 and allows 50.1; FSU 52.3 and allows 52.2
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FSU -16.9—
Total—146.3—
Projected score—AMCC 64.7 · FSU 81.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFSU -9.9—
1H total68.5—
1H projected scoreAMCC 29.3 · FSU 39.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Florida St has the better starters

Position by position: Texas A&M-CC 0, Florida St 3, even 2
Texas A&M-CCBetterFlorida St
G J. Mizell TR5 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12
FSUBig
G K. Taylor TR19.8 pts · 5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 90
G S. Robinson TR14.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 76
Even
G A. Robinson TR8.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 3 ast Score 73
G I. Lewis TR5.9 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 10
FSUBig
F S. Rancik TR12.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 82
G D. Michelini-Jackson4.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 34
Even
F C. Schwieger TR5.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
F B. Basil TR8.7 pts · 6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 53
FSUSmall
F S. Abaev TR7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68
Texas A&M-CCBetterFlorida St
AMCC offense303rd of 366 · -9.4
FSUBig
FSU defense98th of 366 · -0.7
AMCC defense176th of 366 · -4.0
FSUSmall
FSU offense73rd of 366 · +1.4
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
FSUBig
Backcourt+3.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player
FSUSmall
Frontcourt+1.4 · 3 players
Bench-1.2 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.2 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestAMCC betterFSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Texas A&M-CC
Guards
J. Mizell28 min · TRS. Robinson28 min · TRI. Lewis22 min · TRD. Michelini-Jackson17 minB. Wheatfall11 minC. Horton6 min
Forwards
B. Basil23 min · TRD. MukunaNewK. WallaceNewC. WorshamNew
Centers
J. Ambrose5 minL. FoonNew
Florida St
Guards
K. Taylor36 min · TRA. Robinson27 min · TRJ. Crawford1 minJ. LopezNewA. RobinsonNewB. BassNew
Forwards
S. Rancik28 min · TRC. Schwieger20 min · TRS. Abaev16 min · TRA. Swinton16 minC. PaulNew
Centers
M. PonderNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
AMCCFSU
Scoring
68.5 #305Points per game80.4 #58
1.03 #296Points per possession1.12 #101
66.9 #284Pace (possessions)71.8 #41
Shooting
49.5 #270Effective FG%52.3 #132
35.0 #1223-point %33.1 #226
31.4 #3343-point attempt rate50.6 #13
41.1 #46Free throw rate34.7 #191
Possessions
19.4 #336Turnover rate15.2 #80
31.7 #138Offensive rebound rate30.8 #170
12.1 #280Assists per game14.3 #124
Defense
69.4 #52Points allowed77.9 #264
1.04 #67Points allowed per possession1.08 #178
50.1 #104Opponent effective FG%52.2 #226
31.6 #48Opponent 3-point %34.6 #228
19.0 #48Turnovers forced19.0 #51
71.2 #95Defensive rebound rate65.9 #319
7.0 #125Steals per game7.9 #44
2.6 #290Blocks per game3.9 #84
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas A&M-CC

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 14-10 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs SF Austin58–60
  • Wvs LSU N Orleans74–61
  • Wvs East Texas A&M84–71
  • Wvs N'Western St71–59
  • W@ SE Louisiana73–68

A week or more of rest.

Florida St

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke79–80
  • Wvs California95–89
  • Wvs SMU91–78
  • W@ Pitt75–74
  • W@ Georgia Tech80–71

A week or more of rest.