1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. LMU @ TROY
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Loyola Marymount Lions at Troy Trojans

Trojan Arena · at Troy
#121LMULMU
@
#147TROYTroy
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LMUThis seasonTROY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TROY 73–73 · win probability TROY 53%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TROY has more of the edges

LMU 0, TROY 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TROYBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LMU 26.7%, TROY 34.5%. Defensive: LMU 68.0%, TROY 68.3%
TROYSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: LMU 31.1, TROY 36.2. Allowed: LMU 32.5, TROY 31.4
TROYSmall
Home court
TROY at home. This season: TROY 0-0 at home, LMU 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
LMU hits 34.8% and allows 34.6%; TROY hits 33.0% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 40.4% and 45.9% of their shots
Even
TROY offense vs LMU defense
Offense 143rd of 366 against a defense 104th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LMU 51.9 and allows 48.9; TROY 51.5 and allows 50.2
Context
Schedule so far
LMU has played the 131st-hardest schedule, TROY the 166th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: LMU plays 68.9 a game (185th fastest), TROY 69.6 (141st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LMU 22%, TROY 11%. Transfers in: LMU 8, TROY 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
LMU offense vs TROY defense
Offense 152nd of 366 against a defense 162nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LMU 17.4%, TROY 17.3%. Forced: LMU 16.6%, TROY 16.7%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TROY -0.8—
Total—145.7—
Projected score—LMU 72.5 · TROY 73.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTROY -0.3—
1H total68.2—
1H projected scoreLMU 33.9 · TROY 34.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: LMU 2, Troy 2, even 1
LMUBetterTroy
G Z. Sensley TR10.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 72
LMUBig
G R. Davis TR9.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 14
G A. Wright TR7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59
TROYBig
G D. Oday TR18.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 95
F C. Humphrey-Rembert TR7.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 24
TROYBig
G J. Hutchinson TR12.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 76
F A. McBride7.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 50
Even
F C. Diggs TR10.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59
F D. Rivers TR8.6 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 48
LMUSmall
F K. Kiel3.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 1 ast Score 23
LMUBetterTroy
LMU offense152nd of 366 · -4.6
Even
TROY defense162nd of 366 · -3.6
LMU defense104th of 366 · -1.0
Even
TROY offense143rd of 366 · -4.3
Backcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt+1.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players
TROYSmall
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Bench+1.1 · 5 players
LMUBig
Bench-2.0 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestLMU betterTROY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
LMU
Guards
Z. Sensley25 min · TRA. Wright22 min · TRA. Thomas14 minJ. Miles10 min · TRM. Mosley7 min · TRC. Smith2 min
Forwards
C. Humphrey-Rembert31 min · TRA. McBride27 minD. Rivers20 min · TRJ. Porter17 min · TRA. Sigiscar16 min · TRG. Tupy2 min
Troy
Guards
R. Davis31 min · TRD. Oday30 min · TRJ. Hutchinson29 min · TRH. Awata2 minJ. KontuniemiNewR. ValakouNew
Forwards
C. Diggs23 min · TRK. Kiel16 minM. Ikegwuruka13 min · TRS. Walters9 min · TRE. Griffin5 min
Centers
A. PachecoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LMUTROY
Scoring
72.2 #236Points per game77.3 #110
1.04 #263Points per possession1.11 #113
68.9 #185Pace (possessions)69.6 #141
Shooting
51.9 #152Effective FG%51.5 #171
34.8 #1303-point %33.0 #229
40.4 #1623-point attempt rate45.9 #47
31.1 #280Free throw rate36.2 #147
Possessions
17.4 #234Turnover rate17.3 #226
26.7 #307Offensive rebound rate34.5 #59
12.7 #234Assists per game15.0 #86
Defense
72.7 #122Points allowed74.5 #178
1.06 #103Points allowed per possession1.07 #128
48.9 #60Opponent effective FG%50.2 #111
34.6 #225Opponent 3-point %31.6 #47
16.6 #178Turnovers forced16.7 #173
68.0 #258Defensive rebound rate68.3 #243
6.0 #236Steals per game7.2 #107
3.9 #81Blocks per game3.3 #169
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

LMU

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San Diego62–66
  • Lvs Seattle U66–71
  • Wvs Washington St67–66
  • W@ San Diego77–65
  • L@ Pepperdine89–90

A week or more of rest.

Troy

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nebraska47–76
  • Wvs GA Southern77–61
  • Wvs Southern Miss78–70
  • Wvs UL Monroe80–65
  • Wvs Louisiana78–59

A week or more of rest.