Elon Phoenix at George Washington Revolutionaries: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 12:00 AM ETCharles E. Smith Center · at G Washington

#231ELONElon

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Elon and G Washington
ELON	This season	GW
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GW 82–68 · win probability GW 88%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GW has more of the edges

ELON 0, GW 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ELON 32.3%, GW 35.8%. Defensive: ELON 66.5%, GW 71.3%

GWBig

ELON offense vs GW defense

Offense 225th of 366 against a defense 95th, on the model’s ratings

GWBig

GW offense vs ELON defense

Offense 112th of 366 against a defense 235th, on the model’s ratings

GWSmall

Three-pointers

ELON hits 34.3% and allows 36.5%; GW hits 35.1% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 43.2% and 47.0% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

ELON has played the 186th-hardest schedule, GW the 95th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GWSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ELON 52.2 and allows 54.0; GW 54.4 and allows 52.4

GWSmall

Home court

GW at home. This season: GW 0-0 at home, ELON 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: ELON plays 69.0 a game (178th fastest), GW 70.2 (107th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ELON 30%, GW 13%. Transfers in: ELON 5, GW 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ELON 16.0%, GW 18.1%. Forced: ELON 16.4%, GW 17.8%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ELON 33.5, GW 34.9. Allowed: ELON 34.6, GW 35.0

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GW -13.6	—
Total	—	149.7	—
Projected score	—	ELON 68 · GW 81.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GW -8.0	—
1H total	70.0	—
1H projected score	ELON 31 · GW 39	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ELON LWLLL	11-19	37%	8-7	—
GW LLLWL	15-19	44%	8-7	—

Venue/role: ELON away; GW home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ELON OUUUU	16-14	53%	12-18
GW UUOOU	16-18	47%	18-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ELON	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%
GW	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Elon

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs UTC	No recent meeting
Nov 18	@ SC	L43–70LU
Nov 21	vs MORE	No recent meeting

G Washington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs HARV	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs UAB	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs WKU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Elon

30 games played

Straight up

12-18

40% wins

Against the spread

11-19

37% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1840%

W L W L W L L W W W L W L W W L W L L W L L L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1937%

W W L L W L L W L W W W L L L L W L L W L L L L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1453%

O O O O U O O U O U O O O U O O O U U U U O O U U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UNCG	W 92-90	+4.5	W +6.5	142.5	O 182
Nov 12	@MRSH	L 89-96	+8.5	W +1.5	155.5	O 185
Nov 15	vsGWEB	W 95-84	-13.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 179
Nov 20	@MIA	L 72-99	+19.5	L −7.5	164.5	O 171
Nov 24	@APP	W 88-53	+5.5	W +40.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsMER	L 84-91	-2.5	L −9.5	159.5	O 175
Dec 3	vsFUR	L 88-97	+1.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 185
Dec 6	@WOF	W 73-52	+4.5	W +25.5	161.5	U 125
Dec 13	vsNIU	W 85-79	-11.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 164
Dec 17	vsRICH	W 73-70	+3.5	W +6.5	161.5	U 143
Dec 20	@VT	L 81-82	+12.5	W +11.5	158.5	O 163
Dec 29	vsNE	W 103-91	-4.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 194
Dec 31	vsCOFC	L 81-85	-2.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 166
Jan 8	@NCAT	W 69-64	-6.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 133
Jan 10	vsCAM	W 83-82	-4.5	L −3.5	161.5	O 165
Jan 15	@NE	L 78-85	-3.5	L −10.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 17	@HOF	W 89-85	+5.5	W +9.5	149.5	O 174
Jan 22	vsTOW	L 59-72	-1.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 131
Jan 24	@COFC	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 150
Jan 29	vsW&M	W 79-76	+1.5	W +4.5	169.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsSTBK	L 68-72	-4.5	L −8.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 5	@HAMP	L 79-87	-1.5	L −9.5	142.5	O 166
Feb 7	vsDREX	L 77-82	-4.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 159
Feb 12	@UNCW	L 54-65	+8.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 119
Feb 14	@W&M	W 81-78	+8.5	W +11.5	165.5	U 159
Feb 21	vsNCAT	L 82-102	-7.5	L −27.5	151.5	O 184
Feb 26	@TOW	L 56-58	+5.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 114
Feb 28	@MONM	L 57-73	+3.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 130
Mar 3	vsUNCW	L 57-76	+4.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsW&M	L 62-72	+5.5	L −4.5	163.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCG

W 92-90

+6.5

MRSH

L 89-96

+1.5

GWEB

W 95-84

−2.5

MIA

L 72-99

−7.5

APP

W 88-53

+40.5

MER

L 84-91

−9.5

FUR

L 88-97

−7.5

WOF

W 73-52

+25.5

NIU

W 85-79

−5.5

RICH

W 73-70

+6.5

L 81-82

+11.5

W 103-91

+7.5

COFC

L 81-85

−6.5

NCAT

W 69-64

−1.5

CAM

W 83-82

−3.5

L 78-85

−10.5

HOF

W 89-85

+9.5

TOW

L 59-72

−14.5

COFC

L 70-80

−6.5

W&M

W 79-76

+4.5

STBK

L 68-72

−8.5

HAMP

L 79-87

−9.5

DREX

L 77-82

−9.5

UNCW

L 54-65

−2.5

W&M

W 81-78

+11.5

NCAT

L 82-102

−27.5

TOW

L 56-58

+3.5

MONM

L 57-73

−12.5

UNCW

L 57-76

−14.5

W&M

L 62-72

−4.5

covered 11didn’t cover 19avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCG

W 92-90

+39.5

MRSH

L 89-96

+29.5

GWEB

W 95-84

+24.5

MIA

L 72-99

+6.5

APP

W 88-53

−2.5

MER

L 84-91

+15.5

FUR

L 88-97

+31.5

WOF

W 73-52

−36.5

NIU

W 85-79

+7.5

RICH

W 73-70

−18.5

L 81-82

+4.5

W 103-91

+40.5

COFC

L 81-85

+10.5

NCAT

W 69-64

−25.5

CAM

W 83-82

+3.5

L 78-85

+5.5

HOF

W 89-85

+24.5

TOW

L 59-72

−14.5

COFC

L 70-80

−9.5

W&M

W 79-76

−14.5

STBK

L 68-72

−8.5

HAMP

L 79-87

+23.5

DREX

L 77-82

+22.5

UNCW

L 54-65

−30.5

W&M

W 81-78

−6.5

NCAT

L 82-102

+32.5

TOW

L 56-58

−30.5

MONM

L 57-73

−20.5

UNCW

L 57-76

−12.5

W&M

L 62-72

−29.5

over 16under 14avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

G Washington

34 games played

Straight up

18-16

53% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-18

47% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1653%

W W W W W L W L W W L L W W L W L L W L L L L W W L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1944%

L W W W W L W L L L L W W W L W L L W W L L L L W L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1847%

U O O O U O O O U O U U O U U O O U U U U U O U U O O U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsME	W 67-47	-20.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	vsUSF	W 99-95	+1.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 194
Nov 12	vsAMER	W 107-67	-17.5	W +22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsODU	W 96-73	-15.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 169
Nov 19	vsUMBC	W 89-52	-22.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 23	vsMCN	L 86-92	-5.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMTSU	W 92-79	-9.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsMUR	L 95-96	-7.5	L −8.5	167.5	O 191
Dec 2	@ARMY	W 84-70	-19.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsW&M	W 99-86	-13.5	L −0.5	174.5	O 185
Dec 10	vsDEL	L 58-70	-21.5	L −33.5	152.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsFLA	L 70-80	+14.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 150
Dec 31	@RICH	W 99-85	-2.5	W +11.5	162.5	O 184
Jan 3	vsLAS	W 77-55	-16.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 6	@DAY	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 10	vsLUC	W 101-66	-14.5	W +20.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 14	vsDAV	L 79-84	-9.5	L −14.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 19	@GMU	L 64-69	+1.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 133
Jan 24	vsRICH	W 85-69	-10.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 154
Jan 27	@SLU	L 76-79	+10.5	W +7.5	167.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsFOR	L 65-79	-11.5	L −25.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 4	@JOES	L 73-76	-1.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 149
Feb 7	@DUQ	L 86-88	-1.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 174
Feb 10	vsURI	W 75-70	-5.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 13	vsGMU	W 72-53	-3.5	W +15.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 17	@VCU	L 75-89	+6.5	L −7.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 24	@LAS	W 104-77	-8.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 181
Feb 27	vsDAY	L 66-68	-2.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 134
Mar 4	vsSBU	W 91-82	-7.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 7	@LUC	L 62-68	-9.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 130
Mar 12	vsFOR	W 66-62	-7.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 128
Mar 13	vsSLU	L 81-88	+6.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 169
Mar 18	@UVU	W 79-78	+1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 157
Mar 22	@UNM	L 61-86	+6.5	L −18.5	161.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 67-47

−0.5

USF

W 99-95

+5.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+7.5

UMBC

W 89-52

+14.5

MCN

L 86-92

−11.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+3.5

MUR

L 95-96

−8.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−5.5

W&M

W 99-86

−0.5

DEL

L 58-70

−33.5

FLA

L 70-80

+4.5

RICH

W 99-85

+11.5

LAS

W 77-55

+5.5

DAY

L 72-79

−4.5

LUC

W 101-66

+20.5

DAV

L 79-84

−14.5

GMU

L 64-69

−3.5

RICH

W 85-69

+5.5

SLU

L 76-79

+7.5

FOR

L 65-79

−25.5

JOES

L 73-76

−4.5

DUQ

L 86-88

−3.5

URI

W 75-70

−0.5

GMU

W 72-53

+15.5

VCU

L 75-89

−7.5

LAS

W 104-77

+18.5

DAY

L 66-68

−4.5

SBU

W 91-82

+1.5

LUC

L 62-68

−15.5

FOR

W 66-62

−3.5

SLU

L 81-88

−0.5

UVU

W 79-78

+2.5

UNM

L 61-86

−18.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 67-47

−29.5

USF

W 99-95

+34.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+13.5

UMBC

W 89-52

−19.5

MCN

L 86-92

+20.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+12.5

MUR

L 95-96

+23.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−2.5

W&M

W 99-86

+10.5

DEL

L 58-70

−24.5

FLA

L 70-80

−12.5

RICH

W 99-85

+21.5

LAS

W 77-55

−18.5

DAY

L 72-79

−3.5

LUC

W 101-66

+12.5

DAV

L 79-84

+12.5

GMU

L 64-69

−20.5

RICH

W 85-69

−5.5

SLU

L 76-79

−12.5

FOR

L 65-79

−6.5

JOES

L 73-76

−6.5

DUQ

L 86-88

+15.5

URI

W 75-70

−6.5

GMU

W 72-53

−24.5

VCU

L 75-89

+2.5

LAS

W 104-77

+34.5

DAY

L 66-68

−18.5

SBU

W 91-82

+15.5

LUC

L 62-68

−18.5

FOR

W 66-62

−16.5

SLU

L 81-88

+10.5

UVU

W 79-78

+4.5

UNM

L 61-86

−14.5

over 16under 18avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

G Washington has the better starters

Position by position: Elon 1, G Washington 2, even 2

ElonBetterG Washington

G R. Pettus11 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 28

GWSmall

G A. Phillips TR13.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50

G B. Cokley12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 60

ELONSmall

G O. Witherspoon TR7.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 34

G I. Mbeng TR4.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 12

GWBig

G J. Aranguren8.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 3.2 ast Score 70

G C. Thrower TR5.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33

Even

G F. Kossaras TR4.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 37

F J. Dalton TR3.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38

Even

F A. Shaw TR4.5 pts · 6.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48

ElonBetterG Washington

ELON offense225th of 366 · -6.9

GWBig

GW defense95th of 366 · -0.5

ELON defense235th of 366 · -6.2

GWSmall

GW offense112th of 366 · -1.9

Backcourt-5.7 · 4 players

GWSmall

Backcourt-2.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

Bench-0.7 · 4 players

Even

Bench-0.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestELON betterGW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Elon

Guards

R. Pettus28 minB. Cokley27 minI. Mbeng23 min · TRC. Thrower17 min · TRR. Villar12 min · TRK. DixonNew

Forwards

J. Dalton13 min · TRI. Garmendia3 minA. Olander1 minM. ŠarenacNewB. SehlhorstNewC. ZhuNew

Centers

H. Harding7 min · TR

G Washington

Guards

A. Phillips34 min · TRO. Witherspoon28 min · TRJ. Aranguren24 minF. Kossaras16 min · TRT. Arceneaux16 min · TRA. Arrington1 min

Forwards

A. Shaw26 min · TRA. Vukovic15 min · TRD. James15 min · TRM. Arrington14 min · TRR. Frost7 min · TRL. UrbihaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ELON76.8 #123

GW80.9 #46

Points per possession

ELON1.12 #111

GW1.15 #63

Pace (possessions)

ELON69.0 #178

GW70.2 #107

Shooting

Effective FG%

ELON52.2 #137

GW54.4 #55

3-point %

ELON34.3 #154

GW35.1 #106

3-point attempt rate

ELON43.2 #107

GW47.0 #33

Free throw rate

ELON33.5 #222

GW34.9 #184

Possessions

Turnover rate

ELON16.0 #136

GW18.1 #276

Offensive rebound rate

ELON32.3 #116

GW35.8 #26

Assists per game

ELON14.6 #108

GW15.4 #69

Defense

Points allowed

ELON79.3 #307

GW75.2 #195

Points allowed per possession

ELON1.14 #316

GW1.08 #149

Opponent effective FG%

ELON54.0 #300

GW52.4 #234

Opponent 3-point %

ELON36.5 #328

GW33.9 #175

Turnovers forced

ELON16.4 #196

GW17.8 #110

Defensive rebound rate

ELON66.5 #307

GW71.3 #91

Steals per game

ELON6.6 #157

GW7.2 #103

Blocks per game

ELON3.0 #231

GW3.5 #142

ELON		GW
Scoring
76.8 #123	Points per game	80.9 #46
1.12 #111	Points per possession	1.15 #63
69.0 #178	Pace (possessions)	70.2 #107
Shooting
52.2 #137	Effective FG%	54.4 #55
34.3 #154	3-point %	35.1 #106
43.2 #107	3-point attempt rate	47.0 #33
33.5 #222	Free throw rate	34.9 #184
Possessions
16.0 #136	Turnover rate	18.1 #276
32.3 #116	Offensive rebound rate	35.8 #26
14.6 #108	Assists per game	15.4 #69
Defense
79.3 #307	Points allowed	75.2 #195
1.14 #316	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #149
54.0 #300	Opponent effective FG%	52.4 #234
36.5 #328	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #175
16.4 #196	Turnovers forced	17.8 #110
66.5 #307	Defensive rebound rate	71.3 #91
6.6 #157	Steals per game	7.2 #103
3.0 #231	Blocks per game	3.5 #142

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Elon

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs William & Mary62–72
Lvs UNC Wilmington57–76
L@ Monmouth57–73
L@ Towson56–58
Lvs NC A&T82–102

A week or more of rest.

G Washington

18-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ New Mexico61–86
W@ Utah Valley79–78
Lvs Saint Louis81–88
Wvs Fordham66–62
L@ Loyola Chicago62–68

A week or more of rest.

Elon Phoenix at George Washington Revolutionaries

What could decide it: GW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Elon

G Washington

G Washington has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Elon

G Washington