Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 6:00 PM ETTucker Center · at Florida St

#1FLAFlorida AP #1

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Florida and Florida St
FLA	This season	FSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FLA 91–68 · win probability FLA 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 159.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FLA has more of the edges

FLA 5, FSU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

FLABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: FLA 43.4%, FSU 30.8%. Defensive: FLA 75.2%, FSU 65.9%

FSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: FLA 16.4%, FSU 15.2%. Forced: FLA 15.2%, FSU 19.0%

FLABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: FLA 54.1 and allows 46.1; FSU 52.3 and allows 52.2

FLABig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: FLA 85%, FSU 9%. Transfers in: FLA 1, FSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

FLASmall

FLA offense vs FSU defense

Offense 1st of 366 against a defense 98th, on the model’s ratings

FLASmall

FSU offense vs FLA defense

Offense 73rd of 366 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

FLA has played the 9th-hardest schedule, FSU the 73rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

FSUSmall

Home court

FSU at home. This season: FSU 0-0 at home, FLA 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: FLA 39.0, FSU 34.7. Allowed: FLA 34.0, FSU 32.7

Even

Three-pointers

FLA hits 31.2% and allows 32.1%; FSU hits 33.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 37.0% and 50.6% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: FLA plays 72.0 a game (34th fastest), FSU 71.8 (41st). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	FLA -22.9	—
Total	—	159.4	—
Projected score	—	FLA 91.1 · FSU 68.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FLA -13.7	—
1H total	74.5	—
1H projected score	FLA 44.1 · FSU 30.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA WLLWL	19-16	54%	9-1	—
FSU WLWWW	20-13	61%	11-6	—

Venue/role: FLA away; FSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA UUOOU	15-20	43%	27-8
FSU UOOOO	17-16	52%	18-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
FSU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs MRMK	W80–45LU
Nov 17	vs ND	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs MILW	W81–45WU

Florida St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs AMCC	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs BALL	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs GB	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

FLA 5–0 FSUFLA leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · FLA has won the last 5 meetings · FLA 4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2025-26	FSU 76 @ FLA 78	FLA -17.5	FSU W
Nov 15, 2024-25	FLA 87 @ FSU 74	FSU +5.5	FLA W
Nov 17, 2023-24	FSU 68 @ FLA 89	FLA -8.5	FLA W
Nov 18, 2022-23	FLA 76 @ FSU 67	FSU +7.5	FLA W
Nov 14, 2021-22	FSU 55 @ FLA 71	FLA +1.5	FLA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Florida

35 games played

Straight up

27-8

77% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-877%

L W W W W L W L L W W W W L W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

L L L W L L L W W L L W L L W W W W W L W W W W L L W W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

O U U U U O U U O U O U O U U O O O U U U O U U O U O U O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsARIZ	L 87-93	-3.5	L −9.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 6	vsUNF	W 104-64	-43.5	L −3.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	vsFSU	W 78-76	-17.5	L −15.5	180.5	U 154
Nov 16	vsMIA	W 82-68	-10.5	W +3.5	171.5	U 150
Nov 21	vsMRMK	W 80-45	-36.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 27	vsTCU	L 80-84	-11.5	L −15.5	155.5	O 164
Nov 28	vsPROV	W 90-78	-12.5	L −0.5	169.5	U 168
Dec 2	@DUKE	L 66-67	+9.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 133
Dec 9	vsCONN	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 150
Dec 13	vsGW	W 80-70	-14.5	L −4.5	162.5	U 150
Dec 17	vsSFPA	W 102-61	-44.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsCOLG	W 90-60	-27.5	W +2.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 29	vsDART	W 94-72	-35.5	L −13.5	160.5	O 166
Jan 3	@MIZ	L 74-76	-7.5	L −9.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 6	vsUGA	W 92-77	-9.5	W +5.5	172.5	U 169
Jan 10	vsTENN	W 91-67	-4.5	W +19.5	151.5	O 158
Jan 13	@OU	W 96-79	-7.5	W +9.5	157.5	O 175
Jan 17	@VAN	W 98-94	-1.5	W +2.5	164.5	O 192
Jan 20	vsLSU	W 79-61	-15.5	W +2.5	158.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsAUB	L 67-76	-11.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 143
Jan 28	@SC	W 95-48	-13.5	W +33.5	151.5	U 143
Feb 1	vsALA	W 100-77	-9.5	W +13.5	176.5	O 177
Feb 7	@TA&M	W 86-67	-5.5	W +13.5	167.5	U 153
Feb 11	@UGA	W 86-66	-8.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 152
Feb 14	vsUK	W 92-83	-12.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 175
Feb 17	vsSC	W 76-62	-23.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 138
Feb 21	@MISS	W 94-75	-13.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 169
Feb 25	@TEX	W 84-71	-6.5	W +6.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 28	vsARK	W 111-77	-9.5	W +24.5	169.5	O 188
Mar 3	vsMSST	W 108-74	-20.5	W +13.5	161.5	O 182
Mar 7	@UK	W 84-77	-5.5	W +1.5	162.5	U 161
Mar 13	vsUK	W 71-63	-10.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 14	vsVAN	L 74-91	-7.5	L −24.5	161.5	O 165
Mar 20	vsPV	W 114-55	-35.5	W +23.5	154.5	O 169
Mar 22	vsIOWA	L 72-73	-10.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARIZ

L 87-93

−9.5

UNF

W 104-64

−3.5

FSU

W 78-76

−15.5

MIA

W 82-68

+3.5

MRMK

W 80-45

−1.5

TCU

L 80-84

−15.5

PROV

W 90-78

−0.5

DUKE

L 66-67

+8.5

CONN

L 73-77

+0.5

W 80-70

−4.5

SFPA

W 102-61

−3.5

COLG

W 90-60

+2.5

DART

W 94-72

−13.5

MIZ

L 74-76

−9.5

UGA

W 92-77

+5.5

TENN

W 91-67

+19.5

W 96-79

+9.5

VAN

W 98-94

+2.5

LSU

W 79-61

+2.5

AUB

L 67-76

−20.5

W 95-48

+33.5

ALA

W 100-77

+13.5

TA&M

W 86-67

+13.5

UGA

W 86-66

+11.5

W 92-83

−3.5

W 76-62

−9.5

MISS

W 94-75

+5.5

TEX

W 84-71

+6.5

ARK

W 111-77

+24.5

MSST

W 108-74

+13.5

W 84-77

+1.5

W 71-63

−2.5

VAN

L 74-91

−24.5

W 114-55

+23.5

IOWA

L 72-73

−11.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARIZ

L 87-93

+15.5

UNF

W 104-64

−1.5

FSU

W 78-76

−26.5

MIA

W 82-68

−21.5

MRMK

W 80-45

−33.5

TCU

L 80-84

+8.5

PROV

W 90-78

−1.5

DUKE

L 66-67

−24.5

CONN

L 73-77

+4.5

W 80-70

−12.5

SFPA

W 102-61

+6.5

COLG

W 90-60

−6.5

DART

W 94-72

+5.5

MIZ

L 74-76

−4.5

UGA

W 92-77

−3.5

TENN

W 91-67

+6.5

W 96-79

+17.5

VAN

W 98-94

+27.5

LSU

W 79-61

−18.5

AUB

L 67-76

−16.5

W 95-48

−8.5

ALA

W 100-77

+0.5

TA&M

W 86-67

−14.5

UGA

W 86-66

−12.5

W 92-83

+20.5

W 76-62

−18.5

MISS

W 94-75

+16.5

TEX

W 84-71

−2.5

ARK

W 111-77

+18.5

MSST

W 108-74

+20.5

W 84-77

−1.5

W 71-63

−27.5

VAN

L 74-91

+3.5

W 114-55

+14.5

IOWA

L 72-73

−0.5

over 15under 20avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Florida St

33 games played

Straight up

18-15

55% wins

Against the spread

20-13

61% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-16

52% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1555%

W W L W W W L L L L L W W L L L L L W L W W W L W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1361%

W W W L W W L L L L L W W L W L L W W W L W W W W L W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1652%

O U U U U U U O O O O U U U O O O U U U U O O U O O U O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsALCN	W 108-76	-27.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 7	vsALST	W 101-64	-24.5	W +12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@FLA	L 76-78	+17.5	W +15.5	180.5	U 154
Nov 18	vsUTM	W 87-73	-19.5	L −5.5	165.5	U 160
Nov 21	vsGASO	W 98-72	-18.5	W +7.5	175.5	U 170
Nov 25	vsCSUB	W 89-59	-26.5	W +3.5	159.5	U 148
Nov 28	vsTA&M	L 59-95	-1.5	L −37.5	174.5	U 154
Dec 2	vsUGA	L 73-107	-1.5	L −35.5	176.5	O 180
Dec 6	vsHOU	L 67-82	+12.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 13	vsMASS	L 95-103	-12.5	L −20.5	165.5	O 198
Dec 16	@DAY	L 69-97	+6.5	L −21.5	162.5	O 166
Dec 19	vsMVSU	W 96-49	-40.5	W +6.5	164.5	U 145
Dec 22	vsJAX	W 87-63	-23.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 150
Dec 30	@UNC	L 66-79	+12.5	L −0.5	166.5	U 145
Jan 3	vsDUKE	L 87-91	+16.5	W +12.5	163.5	O 178
Jan 10	vsNCSU	L 69-113	+4.5	L −39.5	160.5	O 182
Jan 13	@SYR	L 86-94	+4.5	L −3.5	160.5	O 180
Jan 17	vsWAKE	L 68-69	+1.5	W +0.5	168.5	U 137
Jan 20	@MIA	W 65-63	+10.5	W +12.5	163.5	U 128
Jan 24	@SMU	L 80-83	+11.5	W +8.5	163.5	U 163
Jan 28	vsCAL	W 63-61	-3.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 124
Jan 31	vsSTAN	W 88-80	-3.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 168
Feb 7	@ND	W 82-79	+1.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 10	vsUVA	L 58-61	+8.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 119
Feb 14	@VT	W 92-69	+4.5	W +27.5	156.5	O 161
Feb 17	vsBC	W 80-72	-11.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 152
Feb 21	@CLEM	W 70-65	+8.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 135
Feb 24	vsMIA	L 73-83	+2.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 156
Feb 28	@GT	W 80-71	-5.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 151
Mar 4	@PITT	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 149
Mar 7	vsSMU	W 91-78	-1.5	W +11.5	158.5	O 169
Mar 11	vsCAL	W 95-89	-1.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 184
Mar 12	vsDUKE	L 79-80	+16.5	W +15.5	150.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ALCN

W 108-76

+4.5

ALST

W 101-64

+12.5

FLA

L 76-78

+15.5

UTM

W 87-73

−5.5

GASO

W 98-72

+7.5

CSUB

W 89-59

+3.5

TA&M

L 59-95

−37.5

UGA

L 73-107

−35.5

HOU

L 67-82

−2.5

MASS

L 95-103

−20.5

DAY

L 69-97

−21.5

MVSU

W 96-49

+6.5

JAX

W 87-63

+0.5

UNC

L 66-79

−0.5

DUKE

L 87-91

+12.5

NCSU

L 69-113

−39.5

SYR

L 86-94

−3.5

WAKE

L 68-69

+0.5

MIA

W 65-63

+12.5

SMU

L 80-83

+8.5

CAL

W 63-61

−1.5

STAN

W 88-80

+4.5

W 82-79

+4.5

UVA

L 58-61

+5.5

W 92-69

+27.5

W 80-72

−3.5

CLEM

W 70-65

+13.5

MIA

L 73-83

−7.5

W 80-71

+3.5

PITT

W 75-74

−0.5

SMU

W 91-78

+11.5

CAL

W 95-89

+4.5

DUKE

L 79-80

+15.5

covered 20didn’t cover 13avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ALCN

W 108-76

+27.5

ALST

W 101-64

−1.5

FLA

L 76-78

−26.5

UTM

W 87-73

−5.5

GASO

W 98-72

−5.5

CSUB

W 89-59

−11.5

TA&M

L 59-95

−20.5

UGA

L 73-107

+3.5

HOU

L 67-82

+0.5

MASS

L 95-103

+32.5

DAY

L 69-97

+3.5

MVSU

W 96-49

−19.5

JAX

W 87-63

−9.5

UNC

L 66-79

−21.5

DUKE

L 87-91

+14.5

NCSU

L 69-113

+21.5

SYR

L 86-94

+19.5

WAKE

L 68-69

−31.5

MIA

W 65-63

−35.5

SMU

L 80-83

−0.5

CAL

W 63-61

−33.5

STAN

W 88-80

+15.5

W 82-79

+6.5

UVA

L 58-61

−36.5

W 92-69

+4.5

W 80-72

+3.5

CLEM

W 70-65

−10.5

MIA

L 73-83

+3.5

W 80-71

−7.5

PITT

W 75-74

+4.5

SMU

W 91-78

+10.5

CAL

W 95-89

+29.5

DUKE

L 79-80

+8.5

over 17under 16avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Florida has the better starters

Position by position: Florida 4, Florida St 0, even 1

FloridaBetterFlorida St

G D. Aberdeen TR13.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 90

Even

G K. Taylor TR19.8 pts · 5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 90

G B. Fland11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.5 ast Score 89

FLASmall

G A. Robinson TR8.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 3 ast Score 73

F T. Haugh17.1 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 97

FLASmall

F S. Rancik TR12.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 82

F A. Condon15.1 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98

FLABig

F C. Schwieger TR5.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32

C R. Chinyelu10.9 pts · 11.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 97

FLASmall

F S. Abaev TR7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68

FloridaBetterFlorida St

FLA offense1st of 366 · +17.0

FLASmall

FSU defense98th of 366 · -0.7

FLA defense4th of 366 · +10.4

FLASmall

FSU offense73rd of 366 · +1.4

Backcourt+5.2 · 2 players

FLASmall

Backcourt+3.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.1 · 3 players

FLABig

Frontcourt+1.4 · 3 players

Bench+3.0 · 5 players

FLABig

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestFLA betterFSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Florida

Guards

D. Aberdeen31 min · TRB. Fland30 minU. Klavzar21 minI. Brown13 minC. Ingram6 minA. Lloyd5 min

Forwards

T. Haugh33 minA. Condon31 minD. PetrovicNewA. ButajevasNew

Centers

R. Chinyelu25 minV. Mikic3 minJ. LayNew

Florida St

Guards

K. Taylor36 min · TRA. Robinson27 min · TRJ. Crawford1 minJ. LopezNewA. RobinsonNewB. BassNew

Forwards

S. Rancik28 min · TRC. Schwieger20 min · TRS. Abaev16 min · TRA. Swinton16 minC. PaulNew

Centers

M. PonderNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

FLA87.1 #5

FSU80.4 #58

Points per possession

FLA1.21 #7

FSU1.12 #101

Pace (possessions)

FLA72.0 #34

FSU71.8 #41

Shooting

Effective FG%

FLA54.1 #63

FSU52.3 #132

3-point %

FLA31.2 #315

FSU33.1 #226

3-point attempt rate

FLA37.0 #230

FSU50.6 #13

Free throw rate

FLA39.0 #80

FSU34.7 #191

Possessions

Turnover rate

FLA16.4 #162

FSU15.2 #80

Offensive rebound rate

FLA43.4 #2

FSU30.8 #170

Assists per game

FLA17.0 #26

FSU14.3 #124

Defense

Points allowed

FLA71.5 #93

FSU77.9 #264

Points allowed per possession

FLA0.99 #19

FSU1.08 #178

Opponent effective FG%

FLA46.1 #10

FSU52.2 #226

Opponent 3-point %

FLA32.1 #66

FSU34.6 #228

Turnovers forced

FLA15.2 #269

FSU19.0 #51

Defensive rebound rate

FLA75.2 #7

FSU65.9 #319

Steals per game

FLA6.6 #158

FSU7.9 #44

Blocks per game

FLA5.0 #16

FSU3.9 #84

FLA		FSU
Scoring
87.1 #5	Points per game	80.4 #58
1.21 #7	Points per possession	1.12 #101
72.0 #34	Pace (possessions)	71.8 #41
Shooting
54.1 #63	Effective FG%	52.3 #132
31.2 #315	3-point %	33.1 #226
37.0 #230	3-point attempt rate	50.6 #13
39.0 #80	Free throw rate	34.7 #191
Possessions
16.4 #162	Turnover rate	15.2 #80
43.4 #2	Offensive rebound rate	30.8 #170
17.0 #26	Assists per game	14.3 #124
Defense
71.5 #93	Points allowed	77.9 #264
0.99 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #178
46.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	52.2 #226
32.1 #66	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #228
15.2 #269	Turnovers forced	19.0 #51
75.2 #7	Defensive rebound rate	65.9 #319
6.6 #158	Steals per game	7.9 #44
5.0 #16	Blocks per game	3.9 #84

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Florida

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa72–73
Wvs Prairie View114–55
Lvs Vanderbilt74–91
Wvs Kentucky71–63
W@ Kentucky84–77

A week or more of rest.

Florida St

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Duke79–80
Wvs California95–89
Wvs SMU91–78
W@ Pitt75–74
W@ Georgia Tech80–71

A week or more of rest.

Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles

What could decide it: FLA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Florida

Florida St

Florida has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Florida

Florida St