1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. SLU vs MIZ
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Saint Louis Billikens vs Missouri Tigers

Enterprise Center · Neutral site
#69SLUSaint Louis
vs
#54MIZMissouri
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SLUThis seasonMIZ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIZ 78–77 · win probability MIZ 55%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SLU has more of the edges

SLU 3, MIZ 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SLUBig
Three-pointers
SLU hits 39.9% and allows 30.3%; MIZ hits 35.0% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 45.1% and 36.4% of their shots
MIZBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SLU 33.7, MIZ 42.1. Allowed: SLU 37.1, MIZ 35.5
SLUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SLU 59.7 and allows 45.2; MIZ 55.0 and allows 51.5
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: SLU plays 72.1 a game (32nd fastest), MIZ 68.8 (191st). Faster games mean more points
SLUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SLU 63%, MIZ 33%. Transfers in: SLU 2, MIZ 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
SLU has played the 99th-hardest schedule, MIZ the 45th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SLU 30.7%, MIZ 34.9%. Defensive: SLU 72.8%, MIZ 68.3%
Even
MIZ offense vs SLU defense
Offense 52nd of 366 against a defense 87th, on the model’s ratings
Even
SLU offense vs MIZ defense
Offense 61st of 366 against a defense 49th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SLU 17.2%, MIZ 17.7%. Forced: SLU 15.9%, MIZ 16.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MIZ -1.3—
Total—154.7—
Projected score—SLU 76.7 · MIZ 78

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMIZ -0.7—
1H total72.3—
1H projected scoreSLU 35.8 · MIZ 36.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Saint Louis has the better starters

Position by position: Saint Louis 2, Missouri 0, even 3
Saint LouisBetterMissouri
G Q. Jones9 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 51
Even
G J. Crawford TR14.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
G T. Green11.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 86
SLUSmall
G C. Stansberry TR14.6 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast Score 69
G A. McCottry10.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 84
SLUBig
G K. Davis TR8.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48
F I. Sharma9.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 67
Even
G T. Pierce10.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 80
F A. Michaeli TR7.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 1 ast Score 58
Even
F B. Tiller TR7.9 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68
Saint LouisBetterMissouri
SLU offense61st of 366 · +2.6
Even
MIZ defense49th of 366 · +2.0
SLU defense87th of 366 · -0.1
Even
MIZ offense52nd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players
SLUSmall
Backcourt-0.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player
Bench+3.7 · 5 players
SLUSmall
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSLU betterMIZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Saint Louis
Guards
Q. Jones27 minT. Green24 minA. McCottry23 minK. Thames17 minC. Hutson4 minI. Holmes2 min
Forwards
I. Sharma22 minA. Michaeli18 min · TRE. Strong17 min · TRJ. Kerr6 minS. PearsonNewB. DiakiteNew
Missouri
Guards
J. Crawford32 min · TRC. Stansberry30 min · TRK. Davis30 min · TRT. Pierce28 minJ. Jones26 min · TRA. Boateng12 min
Forwards
B. Tiller26 min · TRJ. Carey18 min · TRL. Northweather12 minN. Randall6 minT. BryantNew
Centers
T. Burns9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SLUMIZ
Scoring
86.4 #7Points per game79.2 #78
1.20 #14Points per possession1.15 #65
72.1 #32Pace (possessions)68.8 #191
Shooting
59.7 #2Effective FG%55.0 #36
39.9 #23-point %35.0 #112
45.1 #643-point attempt rate36.4 #240
33.7 #221Free throw rate42.1 #28
Possessions
17.2 #218Turnover rate17.7 #255
30.7 #173Offensive rebound rate34.9 #48
18.3 #8Assists per game14.2 #132
Defense
71.6 #94Points allowed75.5 #204
0.99 #21Points allowed per possession1.10 #224
45.2 #3Opponent effective FG%51.5 #183
30.3 #14Opponent 3-point %36.8 #341
15.9 #224Turnovers forced16.6 #182
72.8 #43Defensive rebound rate68.3 #238
7.1 #117Steals per game6.6 #162
3.4 #168Blocks per game3.5 #140
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Saint Louis

28-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-4 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan72–95
  • Wvs Georgia102–77
  • Lvs Dayton69–70
  • Wvs G Washington88–81
  • L@ George Mason57–86

A week or more of rest.

Missouri

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami66–80
  • Lvs Kentucky72–78
  • Lvs Arkansas84–88
  • L@ Oklahoma64–80
  • W@ Mississippi St88–64

A week or more of rest.