SIU Edwardsville Cougars at Missouri Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 8:00 PM ETMizzou Arena · at Missouri

#257SIUESIUE

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SIUE and Missouri
SIUE	This season	MIZ
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIZ 82–60 · win probability MIZ 97%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIZ has more of the edges

SIUE 1, MIZ 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

SIUE has played the 365th-hardest schedule, MIZ the 45th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MIZBig

SIUE offense vs MIZ defense

Offense 329th of 366 against a defense 49th, on the model’s ratings

SIUEBig

Three-pointers

SIUE hits 35.0% and allows 30.2%; MIZ hits 35.0% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 36.2% and 36.4% of their shots

MIZBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SIUE 30.6, MIZ 42.1. Allowed: SIUE 34.3, MIZ 35.5

MIZSmall

MIZ offense vs SIUE defense

Offense 52nd of 366 against a defense 161st, on the model’s ratings

MIZSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SIUE 30.1%, MIZ 34.9%. Defensive: SIUE 68.4%, MIZ 68.3%

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: SIUE plays 66.1 a game (306th fastest), MIZ 68.8 (191st). Faster games mean more points

MIZSmall

Home court

MIZ at home. This season: MIZ 0-0 at home, SIUE 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SIUE 52%, MIZ 33%. Transfers in: SIUE 2, MIZ 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SIUE 49.5 and allows 45.6; MIZ 55.0 and allows 51.5

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SIUE 17.9%, MIZ 17.7%. Forced: SIUE 17.1%, MIZ 16.6%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MIZ -21.6	—
Total	—	141.6	—
Projected score	—	SIUE 60 · MIZ 81.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MIZ -12.7	—
1H total	66.3	—
1H projected score	SIUE 26.8 · MIZ 39.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SIUE LLWWL	15-14	52%	9-6	—
MIZ WLLLL	14-19	42%	8-10	—

Venue/role: SIUE away; MIZ home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SIUE UUUUO	11-18	38%	16-13
MIZ UUOOO	16-17	48%	20-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SIUE	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
MIZ	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SIUE

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ DUKE	No recent meeting
Nov 16	@ UND	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs NIU	No recent meeting

Missouri

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs MARQ	No recent meeting
Nov 18	vs ALCN	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs LEM	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SIUE 0–2 MIZMIZ leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · MIZ has won the last 2 meetings · SIUE 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 13, 2023-24	SIUE 50 @ MIZ 68	MIZ -19.5	SIUE W
Nov 15, 2022-23	SIUE 80 @ MIZ 105	MIZ -18.5	MIZ W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SIUE

29 games played

Straight up

16-13

55% wins

Against the spread

15-14

52% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-18

38% overs · avg −4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1355%

W L W L L W W L L W W L W L L W W W L W W W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1452%

W L W W L W W L L L L L W L W W W L L W W W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-1838%

U U U O O O U O O U U O U O U U U U O U O U U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UTSA	W 77-60	+6.5	W +23.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 10	vsINST	L 55-64	-2.5	L −11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DRKE	W 61-59	+7.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 120
Nov 17	@WIS	L 69-94	+25.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 163
Nov 21	@AF	L 63-77	-2.5	L −16.5	130.5	O 140
Nov 23	vsALST	W 83-68	-1.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 151
Dec 2	@UNF	W 72-63	-7.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 135
Dec 6	vsWMU	L 73-83	-5.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 156
Dec 18	@EIU	L 72-76	-6.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 148
Dec 22	@WIU	W 66-61	-6.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 127
Jan 1	vsUSI	W 59-55	-10.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 114
Jan 3	vsMORE	L 72-73	-4.5	L −5.5	131.5	O 145
Jan 6	vsLIN	W 66-62	-1.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 128
Jan 8	vsLR	L 70-73	-3.5	L −6.5	131.5	O 143
Jan 15	@UTM	L 59-65	+7.5	W +1.5	131.5	U 124
Jan 17	@SEMO	W 68-55	+9.5	W +22.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 22	vsTNST	W 74-66	-1.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsTNTC	W 62-58	-7.5	L −3.5	135.5	U 120
Jan 29	@MORE	L 65-67	+1.5	L −0.5	130.5	O 132
Jan 31	@USI	W 58-46	-1.5	W +10.5	130.5	U 104
Feb 3	@LIN	W 78-72	+4.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 7	@LR	W 71-61	+1.5	W +11.5	132.5	U 132
Feb 12	vsSEMO	W 74-56	+1.5	W +19.5	137.5	U 130
Feb 14	vsUTM	L 76-81	+1.5	L −3.5	129.5	O 157
Feb 19	@TNTC	L 52-62	-1.5	L −11.5	134.5	U 114
Feb 21	@TNST	L 53-80	+2.5	L −24.5	143.5	U 133
Feb 26	vsWIU	W 67-47	-13.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsEIU	W 77-50	-5.5	W +21.5	129.5	U 127
Mar 4	vsEIU	L 71-77	-3.5	L −9.5	128.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTSA

W 77-60

+23.5

INST

L 55-64

−11.5

DRKE

W 61-59

+9.5

WIS

L 69-94

+0.5

L 63-77

−16.5

ALST

W 83-68

+13.5

UNF

W 72-63

+1.5

WMU

L 73-83

−15.5

EIU

L 72-76

−10.5

WIU

W 66-61

−1.5

USI

W 59-55

−6.5

L 72-73

−5.5

LIN

W 66-62

+2.5

L 70-73

−6.5

UTM

L 59-65

+1.5

SEMO

W 68-55

+22.5

TNST

W 74-66

+6.5

TNTC

W 62-58

−3.5

L 65-67

−0.5

USI

W 58-46

+10.5

LIN

W 78-72

+10.5

W 71-61

+11.5

SEMO

W 74-56

+19.5

UTM

L 76-81

−3.5

TNTC

L 52-62

−11.5

TNST

L 53-80

−24.5

WIU

W 67-47

+6.5

EIU

W 77-50

+21.5

EIU

L 71-77

−9.5

covered 15didn’t cover 14avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTSA

W 77-60

−16.5

INST

L 55-64

−40.5

DRKE

W 61-59

−22.5

WIS

L 69-94

+16.5

L 63-77

+9.5

ALST

W 83-68

+8.5

UNF

W 72-63

−18.5

WMU

L 73-83

+16.5

EIU

L 72-76

+13.5

WIU

W 66-61

−11.5

USI

W 59-55

−22.5

L 72-73

+13.5

LIN

W 66-62

−14.5

L 70-73

+11.5

UTM

L 59-65

−7.5

SEMO

W 68-55

−16.5

TNST

W 74-66

−2.5

TNTC

W 62-58

−15.5

L 65-67

+1.5

USI

W 58-46

−26.5

LIN

W 78-72

+9.5

W 71-61

−0.5

SEMO

W 74-56

−7.5

UTM

L 76-81

+27.5

TNTC

L 52-62

−20.5

TNST

L 53-80

−10.5

WIU

W 67-47

−21.5

EIU

W 77-50

−2.5

EIU

L 71-77

+19.5

over 11under 18avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Missouri

33 games played

Straight up

20-13

61% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1361%

W W W W W W W W L L W W L W W L W L L W L W W W L W L W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1942%

W L W W L W L L L L L W L W W L W L L L L L W W L W W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1748%

U O O U U U O U O U O U U U U O O U U O U O U O O O O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@HOW	W 88-67	-20.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 155
Nov 7	vsSEMO	W 89-84	-25.5	L −20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 9	vsVMI	W 106-68	-23.5	W +14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsMINN	W 83-60	-7.5	W +15.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 17	vsPV	W 91-73	-35.5	L −17.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 20	vsSDAK	W 102-68	-24.5	W +9.5	171.5	U 170
Nov 25	vsSCST	W 98-66	-34.5	L −2.5	160.5	O 164
Nov 28	vsCLE	W 86-59	-31.5	L −4.5	170.5	U 145
Dec 2	@ND	L 71-76	-1.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 7	vsKU	L 60-80	+5.5	L −14.5	150.5	U 140
Dec 11	vsALST	W 85-77	-26.5	L −18.5	155.5	O 162
Dec 14	vsBCU	W 82-60	-20.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 142
Dec 22	vsILL	L 48-91	+8.5	L −34.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 3	vsFLA	W 76-74	+7.5	W +9.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 7	@UK	W 73-68	+12.5	W +17.5	150.5	U 141
Jan 10	@MISS	L 69-76	+1.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 145
Jan 14	vsAUB	W 84-74	+1.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 158
Jan 17	@LSU	L 70-78	+1.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 148
Jan 20	vsUGA	L 72-74	-1.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 146
Jan 24	vsOU	W 88-87	-4.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 175
Jan 27	@ALA	L 64-90	+10.5	L −15.5	167.5	U 154
Jan 31	vsMSST	W 84-79	-6.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 163
Feb 7	@SC	W 78-59	-3.5	W +15.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 11	@TA&M	W 86-85	+7.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 171
Feb 14	vsTEX	L 68-85	-2.5	L −19.5	150.5	O 153
Feb 18	vsVAN	W 81-80	+3.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 21	@ARK	L 86-94	+9.5	W +1.5	159.5	O 180
Feb 24	vsTENN	W 73-69	+3.5	W +7.5	143.5	U 142
Feb 28	@MSST	W 88-64	-1.5	W +22.5	154.5	U 152
Mar 3	@OU	L 64-80	-1.5	L −17.5	153.5	U 144
Mar 7	vsARK	L 84-88	-2.5	L −6.5	163.5	O 172
Mar 12	vsUK	L 72-78	+2.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 150
Mar 20	vsMIA	L 66-80	+1.5	L −12.5	144.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOW

W 88-67

+0.5

SEMO

W 89-84

−20.5

VMI

W 106-68

+14.5

MINN

W 83-60

+15.5

W 91-73

−17.5

SDAK

W 102-68

+9.5

SCST

W 98-66

−2.5

CLE

W 86-59

−4.5

L 71-76

−6.5

L 60-80

−14.5

ALST

W 85-77

−18.5

BCU

W 82-60

+1.5

ILL

L 48-91

−34.5

FLA

W 76-74

+9.5

W 73-68

+17.5

MISS

L 69-76

−5.5

AUB

W 84-74

+11.5

LSU

L 70-78

−6.5

UGA

L 72-74

−3.5

W 88-87

−3.5

ALA

L 64-90

−15.5

MSST

W 84-79

−1.5

W 78-59

+15.5

TA&M

W 86-85

+8.5

TEX

L 68-85

−19.5

VAN

W 81-80

+4.5

ARK

L 86-94

+1.5

TENN

W 73-69

+7.5

MSST

W 88-64

+22.5

L 64-80

−17.5

ARK

L 84-88

−6.5

L 72-78

−3.5

MIA

L 66-80

−12.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOW

W 88-67

−3.5

SEMO

W 89-84

+15.5

VMI

W 106-68

+12.5

MINN

W 83-60

−15.5

W 91-73

−2.5

SDAK

W 102-68

−1.5

SCST

W 98-66

+3.5

CLE

W 86-59

−25.5

L 71-76

+0.5

L 60-80

−10.5

ALST

W 85-77

+6.5

BCU

W 82-60

−4.5

ILL

L 48-91

−14.5

FLA

W 76-74

−4.5

W 73-68

−9.5

MISS

L 69-76

+1.5

AUB

W 84-74

+4.5

LSU

L 70-78

−0.5

UGA

L 72-74

−17.5

W 88-87

+23.5

ALA

L 64-90

−13.5

MSST

W 84-79

+16.5

W 78-59

−10.5

TA&M

W 86-85

+10.5

TEX

L 68-85

+2.5

VAN

W 81-80

+6.5

ARK

L 86-94

+20.5

TENN

W 73-69

−1.5

MSST

W 88-64

−2.5

L 64-80

−9.5

ARK

L 84-88

+8.5

L 72-78

+1.5

MIA

L 66-80

+1.5

over 16under 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Missouri has the better starters

Position by position: SIUE 0, Missouri 3, even 2

SIUEBetterMissouri

G G. Cobb TR9.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 3.6 ast Score 40

Even

G J. Crawford TR14.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44

G T. King10.1 pts · 2.6 reb · 1 ast Score 66

Even

G C. Stansberry TR14.6 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast Score 69

G J. Pickett4.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 7

MIZBig

G K. Davis TR8.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48

F G. Liberis7 pts · 4.8 reb · 1 ast Score 9

MIZBig

G T. Pierce10.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 80

F D. Baker7.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

MIZSmall

F B. Tiller TR7.9 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68

SIUEBetterMissouri

SIUE offense329th of 366 · -10.6

MIZBig

MIZ defense49th of 366 · +2.0

SIUE defense161st of 366 · -3.6

MIZSmall

MIZ offense52nd of 366 · +3.3

Backcourt-3.6 · 3 players

MIZBig

Backcourt-0.0 · 4 players

Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players

MIZBig

Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player

Bench-1.5 · 4 players

MIZBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSIUE betterMIZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SIUE

Guards

G. Cobb29 min · TRT. King22 minJ. Pickett20 minC. Efono9 minH. Alexander7 minD. McCaskillNew

Forwards

G. Liberis24 minD. Baker21 minI. Baganc2 minD. WilsonNewB. SohaibNewB. MillerNew

Centers

J. Martin1 min · TR

Missouri

Guards

J. Crawford32 min · TRC. Stansberry30 min · TRK. Davis30 min · TRT. Pierce28 minJ. Jones26 min · TRA. Boateng12 min

Forwards

B. Tiller26 min · TRJ. Carey18 min · TRL. Northweather12 minN. Randall6 minT. BryantNew

Centers

T. Burns9 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SIUE67.7 #321

MIZ79.2 #78

Points per possession

SIUE1.02 #304

MIZ1.15 #65

Pace (possessions)

SIUE66.1 #306

MIZ68.8 #191

Shooting

Effective FG%

SIUE49.5 #266

MIZ55.0 #36

3-point %

SIUE35.0 #123

MIZ35.0 #112

3-point attempt rate

SIUE36.2 #246

MIZ36.4 #240

Free throw rate

SIUE30.6 #294

MIZ42.1 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

SIUE17.9 #266

MIZ17.7 #255

Offensive rebound rate

SIUE30.1 #195

MIZ34.9 #48

Assists per game

SIUE12.4 #255

MIZ14.2 #132

Defense

Points allowed

SIUE65.9 #13

MIZ75.5 #204

Points allowed per possession

SIUE1.00 #26

MIZ1.10 #224

Opponent effective FG%

SIUE45.6 #6

MIZ51.5 #183

Opponent 3-point %

SIUE30.2 #10

MIZ36.8 #341

Turnovers forced

SIUE17.1 #143

MIZ16.6 #182

Defensive rebound rate

SIUE68.4 #235

MIZ68.3 #238

Steals per game

SIUE6.9 #138

MIZ6.6 #162

Blocks per game

SIUE4.0 #70

MIZ3.5 #140

SIUE		MIZ
Scoring
67.7 #321	Points per game	79.2 #78
1.02 #304	Points per possession	1.15 #65
66.1 #306	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #191
Shooting
49.5 #266	Effective FG%	55.0 #36
35.0 #123	3-point %	35.0 #112
36.2 #246	3-point attempt rate	36.4 #240
30.6 #294	Free throw rate	42.1 #28
Possessions
17.9 #266	Turnover rate	17.7 #255
30.1 #195	Offensive rebound rate	34.9 #48
12.4 #255	Assists per game	14.2 #132
Defense
65.9 #13	Points allowed	75.5 #204
1.00 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #224
45.6 #6	Opponent effective FG%	51.5 #183
30.2 #10	Opponent 3-point %	36.8 #341
17.1 #143	Turnovers forced	16.6 #182
68.4 #235	Defensive rebound rate	68.3 #238
6.9 #138	Steals per game	6.6 #162
4.0 #70	Blocks per game	3.5 #140

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SIUE

16-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs E Illinois71–77
Wvs E Illinois77–50
Wvs W Illinois67–47
L@ Tennessee St53–80
L@ Tennessee Tech52–62

A week or more of rest.

Missouri

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Miami66–80
Lvs Kentucky72–78
Lvs Arkansas84–88
L@ Oklahoma64–80
W@ Mississippi St88–64

A week or more of rest.

SIU Edwardsville Cougars at Missouri Tigers

What could decide it: MIZ has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SIUE

Missouri

Missouri has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SIUE

Missouri