Jackson State Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 7:30 PM ETHumphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jackson St and Mississippi St
JKST	This season	MSST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSST 92–67 · win probability MSST 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 158.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSST has more of the edges

JKST 1, MSST 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MSSTBig

MSST offense vs JKST defense

Offense 34th of 366 against a defense 325th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

JKST has played the 239th-hardest schedule, MSST the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MSSTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: JKST 45.7 and allows 53.0; MSST 51.5 and allows 50.9

MSSTBig

JKST offense vs MSST defense

Offense 229th of 366 against a defense 88th, on the model’s ratings

JKSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: JKST 76%, MSST 23%. Transfers in: JKST 2, MSST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

MSSTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: JKST 29.7%, MSST 29.8%. Defensive: JKST 62.8%, MSST 69.3%

MSSTSmall

Three-pointers

JKST hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%; MSST hits 32.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 43.3% and 40.1% of their shots

MSSTSmall

Home court

MSST at home. This season: MSST 0-0 at home, JKST 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: JKST 37.4, MSST 30.6. Allowed: JKST 41.9, MSST 32.3

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: JKST 19.4%, MSST 16.0%. Forced: JKST 16.5%, MSST 12.8%

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: JKST plays 71.6 a game (50th fastest), MSST 72.3 (29th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MSST -24.8	—
Total	—	158.5	—
Projected score	—	JKST 66.8 · MSST 91.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSST -14.6	—
1H total	74.0	—
1H projected score	JKST 29.7 · MSST 44.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JKST LWLWL	14-19	42%	6-13	—
MSST LLLLL	10-22	31%	4-12	—

Venue/role: JKST away; MSST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
JKST UOOUU	16-17	48%	12-21
MSST UUOOU	16-16	50%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JKST	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
MSST	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jackson St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ USM	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ WIN	L62–80LU
Nov 18	@ BAY	No recent meeting

Mississippi St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs XAV	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ UCF	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ TLSA	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

JKST 0–1 MSSTMSST leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · JKST 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 14, 2022-23	MSST 69 vs JKST 59	JKST +20.5	JKST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jackson St

33 games played

Straight up

12-21

36% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2136%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

L W L L L L W W L L W L L L W L W W L W L W W L W W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1748%

O O U O O U U O U U O O O O U O U O U U U O O U U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ILL	L 55-113	+28.5	L −29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 6	@LOU	L 70-106	+38.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 176
Nov 15	@LT	L 51-68	+8.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@AUB	L 66-112	+30.5	L −15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 21	@ARK	L 61-115	+29.5	L −24.5	159.5	O 176
Nov 23	vsWIN	L 62-80	+10.5	L −7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 28	@UL	W 51-45	+5.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 2	@KENN	L 73-88	+15.5	W +0.5	157.5	O 161
Dec 10	@HOU	L 38-80	+40.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	@NU	L 53-93	+30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 18	vsHAMP	L 77-84	+8.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 161
Dec 19	vsNORF	L 72-82	+5.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 29	@TCU	L 64-115	+30.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsALCN	W 89-86	-5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 175
Jan 10	@ALST	W 75-64	+7.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 12	@AAMU	L 91-100	+6.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 17	vsPV	W 82-78	-1.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 160
Jan 19	vsTXSO	W 94-89	-2.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 183
Jan 24	@BCU	L 48-85	+8.5	L −28.5	156.5	U 133
Jan 26	@FAMU	W 66-65	+7.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 131
Jan 31	vsGRAM	L 66-69	+2.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 135
Feb 2	vsSOU	L 91-96	+5.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 187
Feb 7	@MVSU	W 97-81	-8.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 178
Feb 9	@UAPB	L 63-84	+7.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 147
Feb 14	vsFAMU	W 80-60	+2.5	W +22.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 16	vsBCU	W 91-86	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 177
Feb 21	@ALCN	L 65-83	-1.5	L −19.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 26	@PV	L 76-85	+3.5	L −5.5	161.5	U 161
Feb 28	@TXSO	L 57-82	+6.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 139
Mar 3	vsUAPB	W 81-78	+1.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsMVSU	W 85-77	-11.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 162
Mar 10	vsGRAM	W 68-65	+7.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsFAMU	L 60-70	+6.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

−29.5

LOU

L 70-106

+2.5

L 51-68

−8.5

AUB

L 66-112

−15.5

ARK

L 61-115

−24.5

WIN

L 62-80

−7.5

W 51-45

+11.5

KENN

L 73-88

+0.5

HOU

L 38-80

−1.5

L 53-93

−9.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+1.5

NORF

L 72-82

−4.5

TCU

L 64-115

−20.5

ALCN

W 89-86

−2.5

ALST

W 75-64

+18.5

AAMU

L 91-100

−2.5

W 82-78

+2.5

TXSO

W 94-89

+2.5

BCU

L 48-85

−28.5

FAMU

W 66-65

+8.5

GRAM

L 66-69

−0.5

SOU

L 91-96

+0.5

MVSU

W 97-81

+7.5

UAPB

L 63-84

−13.5

FAMU

W 80-60

+22.5

BCU

W 91-86

+9.5

ALCN

L 65-83

−19.5

L 76-85

−5.5

TXSO

L 57-82

−18.5

UAPB

W 81-78

+4.5

MVSU

W 85-77

−3.5

GRAM

W 68-65

+10.5

FAMU

L 60-70

−3.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

+10.5

LOU

L 70-106

+10.5

L 51-68

−27.5

AUB

L 66-112

+21.5

ARK

L 61-115

+16.5

WIN

L 62-80

−21.5

W 51-45

−40.5

KENN

L 73-88

+3.5

HOU

L 38-80

−19.5

L 53-93

−0.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+25.5

NORF

L 72-82

+13.5

TCU

L 64-115

+35.5

ALCN

W 89-86

+29.5

ALST

W 75-64

−14.5

AAMU

L 91-100

+50.5

W 82-78

−0.5

TXSO

W 94-89

+29.5

BCU

L 48-85

−23.5

FAMU

W 66-65

−19.5

GRAM

L 66-69

−13.5

SOU

L 91-96

+34.5

MVSU

W 97-81

+34.5

UAPB

L 63-84

−8.5

FAMU

W 80-60

−4.5

BCU

W 91-86

+26.5

ALCN

L 65-83

−1.5

L 76-85

−0.5

TXSO

L 57-82

−13.5

UAPB

W 81-78

+5.5

MVSU

W 85-77

+17.5

GRAM

W 68-65

−6.5

FAMU

L 60-70

−11.5

over 16under 17avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mississippi St

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

10-22

31% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W L W L L W L W L W W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-2231%

L L L L L L L W L W L W W W W L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

U O U O O U O O U O O U U O U O O U U U U O U U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUNA	W 86-62	-24.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 10	vsISU	L 80-96	+5.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 15	vsSELA	W 75-68	-27.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsKSU	L 77-98	-2.5	L −23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsUNM	L 78-80	-6.5	L −8.5	151.5	O 158
Nov 24	vsNOLA	W 81-78	-23.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 159
Nov 28	vsSMU	L 81-87	-1.5	L −7.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 3	@GT	W 85-73	-1.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 7	vsSF	L 62-65	-4.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 127
Dec 13	vsUTAH	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 16	vsLIU	W 87-83	-16.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsMEM	W 71-66	-3.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 29	vsALST	W 94-56	-17.5	W +20.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 3	@TEX	W 101-98	+9.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 199
Jan 7	vsOU	W 72-53	-1.5	W +17.5	158.5	U 125
Jan 10	@UK	L 68-92	+10.5	L −13.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 13	vsALA	L 82-97	+4.5	L −10.5	171.5	O 179
Jan 17	vsMISS	L 67-68	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 135
Jan 21	@TA&M	L 68-88	+8.5	L −11.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	vsVAN	L 56-88	+7.5	L −24.5	159.5	U 144
Jan 28	@LSU	W 80-66	+7.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	@MIZ	L 79-84	+6.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 163
Feb 7	vsARK	L 68-88	+5.5	L −14.5	163.5	U 156
Feb 11	vsTENN	L 64-73	+8.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	@MISS	W 90-78	+3.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 168
Feb 18	vsAUB	W 91-85	+5.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 176
Feb 21	@SC	L 89-97	-1.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 186
Feb 25	@ALA	L 75-100	+12.5	L −12.5	176.5	U 175
Feb 28	vsMIZ	L 64-88	+1.5	L −22.5	154.5	U 152
Mar 3	@FLA	L 74-108	+20.5	L −13.5	161.5	O 182
Mar 7	vsUGA	L 96-102	+5.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 198
Mar 11	vsAUB	L 61-79	+8.5	L −9.5	160.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−0.5

ISU

L 80-96

−10.5

SELA

W 75-68

−20.5

KSU

L 77-98

−23.5

UNM

L 78-80

−8.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−20.5

SMU

L 81-87

−7.5

W 85-73

+10.5

L 62-65

−7.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+6.5

LIU

W 87-83

−12.5

MEM

W 71-66

+1.5

ALST

W 94-56

+20.5

TEX

W 101-98

+12.5

W 72-53

+17.5

L 68-92

−13.5

ALA

L 82-97

−10.5

MISS

L 67-68

−4.5

TA&M

L 68-88

−11.5

VAN

L 56-88

−24.5

LSU

W 80-66

+21.5

MIZ

L 79-84

+1.5

ARK

L 68-88

−14.5

TENN

L 64-73

−0.5

MISS

W 90-78

+15.5

AUB

W 91-85

+11.5

L 89-97

−9.5

ALA

L 75-100

−12.5

MIZ

L 64-88

−22.5

FLA

L 74-108

−13.5

UGA

L 96-102

−0.5

AUB

L 61-79

−9.5

covered 10didn’t cover 22avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−3.5

ISU

L 80-96

+25.5

SELA

W 75-68

−7.5

KSU

L 77-98

+10.5

UNM

L 78-80

+6.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−1.5

SMU

L 81-87

+5.5

W 85-73

+7.5

L 62-65

−23.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+2.5

LIU

W 87-83

+17.5

MEM

W 71-66

−16.5

ALST

W 94-56

−4.5

TEX

W 101-98

+41.5

W 72-53

−33.5

L 68-92

+7.5

ALA

L 82-97

+7.5

MISS

L 67-68

−12.5

TA&M

L 68-88

−7.5

VAN

L 56-88

−15.5

LSU

W 80-66

−8.5

MIZ

L 79-84

+16.5

ARK

L 68-88

−7.5

TENN

L 64-73

−10.5

MISS

W 90-78

+21.5

AUB

W 91-85

+20.5

L 89-97

+34.5

ALA

L 75-100

−1.5

MIZ

L 64-88

−2.5

FLA

L 74-108

+20.5

UGA

L 96-102

+30.5

AUB

L 61-79

−20.5

over 16under 16avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mississippi St has the better starters

Position by position: Jackson St 0, Mississippi St 2, even 3

Jackson StBetterMississippi St

G D. Ruffin23.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 98

Even

G J. Hubbard22.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 99

G D. McMillian11.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 37

MSSTBig

G R. Johnson TR14.8 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 86

G M. Williams5.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Simpkins TR9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83

G T. Hoover5.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 23

Even

F K. Sanders TR5.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31

G D. Williams2.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 5

MSSTBig

C N. Okafor TR11.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 71

Jackson StBetterMississippi St

JKST offense229th of 366 · -7.0

MSSTBig

MSST defense88th of 366 · -0.1

JKST defense325th of 366 · -8.4

MSSTBig

MSST offense34th of 366 · +5.5

Backcourt-2.6 · 5 players

MSSTBig

Backcourt+9.6 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players

Bench-5.7 · 5 players

MSSTBig

Bench-2.0 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestJKST betterMSST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jackson St

Guards

D. Ruffin34 minD. McMillian30 minM. Williams20 minT. Hoover20 minD. Williams17 minC. Brunt11 min · TR

Forwards

K. Butler10 minD. Kolev8 minN. WilliamsNewT. LawsonNew

Centers

E. Wilson11 minJ. Williams8 min · TR

Mississippi St

Guards

J. Hubbard33 minR. Johnson29 min · TRT. Simpkins25 min · TRK. Grace12 minA. Magee11 min · TRC. PaulNew

Forwards

K. Sanders20 min · TRT. Bassong19 min · TRT. ReedNew

Centers

N. Okafor23 min · TRG. CholNewT. BartlettNewT. ReedNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

JKST70.2 #281

MSST77.6 #103

Points per possession

JKST0.98 #341

MSST1.07 #205

Pace (possessions)

JKST71.6 #50

MSST72.3 #29

Shooting

Effective FG%

JKST45.7 #354

MSST51.5 #172

3-point %

JKST31.4 #311

MSST32.4 #262

3-point attempt rate

JKST43.3 #105

MSST40.1 #169

Free throw rate

JKST37.4 #117

MSST30.6 #288

Possessions

Turnover rate

JKST19.4 #337

MSST16.0 #143

Offensive rebound rate

JKST29.7 #215

MSST29.8 #210

Assists per game

JKST10.4 #352

MSST12.8 #231

Defense

Points allowed

JKST83.8 #354

MSST81.8 #338

Points allowed per possession

JKST1.17 #344

MSST1.13 #299

Opponent effective FG%

JKST53.0 #267

MSST50.9 #154

Opponent 3-point %

JKST34.8 #236

MSST33.9 #179

Turnovers forced

JKST16.5 #189

MSST12.8 #358

Defensive rebound rate

JKST62.8 #359

MSST69.3 #190

Steals per game

JKST6.3 #205

MSST5.8 #260

Blocks per game

JKST3.0 #226

MSST4.4 #44

JKST		MSST
Scoring
70.2 #281	Points per game	77.6 #103
0.98 #341	Points per possession	1.07 #205
71.6 #50	Pace (possessions)	72.3 #29
Shooting
45.7 #354	Effective FG%	51.5 #172
31.4 #311	3-point %	32.4 #262
43.3 #105	3-point attempt rate	40.1 #169
37.4 #117	Free throw rate	30.6 #288
Possessions
19.4 #337	Turnover rate	16.0 #143
29.7 #215	Offensive rebound rate	29.8 #210
10.4 #352	Assists per game	12.8 #231
Defense
83.8 #354	Points allowed	81.8 #338
1.17 #344	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #299
53.0 #267	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #154
34.8 #236	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #179
16.5 #189	Turnovers forced	12.8 #358
62.8 #359	Defensive rebound rate	69.3 #190
6.3 #205	Steals per game	5.8 #260
3.0 #226	Blocks per game	4.4 #44

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jackson St

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Florida A&M60–70
Wvs Grambling68–65
Wvs Miss Valley St85–77
Wvs AR-Pine Bluff81–78
L@ Texas Southern57–82

A week or more of rest.

Mississippi St

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Auburn61–79
Lvs Georgia96–102
L@ Florida74–108
Lvs Missouri64–88
L@ Alabama75–100

A week or more of rest.

Jackson State Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs

What could decide it: MSST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Jackson St

Mississippi St

Mississippi St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jackson St

Mississippi St