1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 9
  3. OAK @ ALA
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 9

Oakland Golden Grizzlies at Alabama Crimson Tide

Coleman Coliseum · at Alabama
#204OAKOakland
@
#15ALAAlabama AP #20
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
OAKThis seasonALA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ALA 98–70 · win probability ALA 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 167.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ALA has more of the edges

OAK 1, ALA 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ALABig
ALA offense vs OAK defense
Offense 2nd of 366 against a defense 266th, on the model’s ratings
ALABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: OAK 52.7 and allows 54.7; ALA 55.2 and allows 49.2
Context
Schedule so far
OAK has played the 150th-hardest schedule, ALA the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less
ALASmall
OAK offense vs ALA defense
Offense 159th of 366 against a defense 54th, on the model’s ratings
OAKSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: OAK 38.1, ALA 36.0. Allowed: OAK 24.6, ALA 32.0
ALASmall
Home court
ALA at home. This season: ALA 0-0 at home, OAK 0-0 away
ALASmall
Three-pointers
OAK hits 34.7% and allows 34.3%; ALA hits 35.8% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 34.0% and 54.3% of their shots
ALASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OAK 20%, ALA 46%. Transfers in: OAK 5, ALA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OAK 31.3%, ALA 32.4%. Defensive: OAK 65.6%, ALA 67.2%
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: OAK plays 71.1 a game (67th fastest), ALA 74.7 (7th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OAK 14.7%, ALA 13.1%. Forced: OAK 15.1%, ALA 12.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ALA -28.6—
Total—167.6—
Projected score—OAK 69.5 · ALA 98.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadALA -16.9—
1H total78.2—
1H projected scoreOAK 30.7 · ALA 47.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Alabama has the better starters

Position by position: Oakland 1, Alabama 4, even 0
OaklandBetterAlabama
G N. Mashhour9 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 22
ALABig
G A. Holloway16.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99
G B. Swartz TR7.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41
ALABig
G A. Allen11.4 pts · 6.9 reb · 3.1 ast Score 94
F B. El Shakery TR11.2 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 59
ALABig
F D. Fielder TR14.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98
F C. Fields TR9.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 79
OAKSmall
F J. Davis-Fleming TR3.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
F J. Hill TR7 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16
ALABig
F B. Garrison TR4.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73
OaklandBetterAlabama
OAK offense159th of 366 · -4.8
ALASmall
ALA defense54th of 366 · +1.5
OAK defense266th of 366 · -6.8
ALABig
ALA offense2nd of 366 · +13.7
Backcourt-3.2 · 2 players
ALABig
Backcourt+8.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players
ALABig
Frontcourt+5.2 · 3 players
Bench-1.7 · 2 players
ALASmall
Bench+0.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestOAK betterALA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Oakland
Guards
N. Mashhour28 minB. Swartz21 min · TRW. Marshall12 minR. Taylor11 min · TRW. KassiNewH. MashhourNew
Forwards
B. El Shakery27 min · TRC. Fields18 min · TRJ. Hill17 min · TRN. AhnerNewC. ThompsonNewI. TheodileNew
Alabama
Guards
A. Holloway28 minA. Allen28 minP. Murphy3 minC. CloerNewQ. SamuelsNewA. DiazNew
Forwards
D. Fielder24 min · TRJ. Davis-Fleming20 min · TRB. Garrison16 min · TRL. Jemison16 minK. Bristow13 minJ. RichardsonNew
Centers
C. Onyejiaka6 minT. St. LouisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OAKALA
Scoring
81.6 #37Points per game91.2 #1
1.14 #66Points per possession1.22 #5
71.1 #67Pace (possessions)74.7 #7
Shooting
52.7 #114Effective FG%55.2 #34
34.7 #1313-point %35.8 #66
34.0 #2943-point attempt rate54.3 #1
38.1 #100Free throw rate36.0 #150
Possessions
14.7 #47Turnover rate13.1 #10
31.3 #152Offensive rebound rate32.4 #111
15.7 #60Assists per game16.3 #39
Defense
82.8 #344Points allowed82.7 #343
1.17 #340Points allowed per possession1.11 #232
54.7 #322Opponent effective FG%49.2 #73
34.3 #206Opponent 3-point %33.8 #170
15.1 #275Turnovers forced12.8 #361
65.6 #324Defensive rebound rate67.2 #295
7.2 #106Steals per game6.4 #186
3.7 #110Blocks per game5.0 #17
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oakland

15-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Kentucky84–85
  • Lvs Detroit Mercy89–95
  • W@ IU Indy86–74
  • Wvs Milwaukee81–70
  • Lvs Green Bay68–73

A week or more of rest.

Alabama

25-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan77–90
  • Wvs Texas Tech90–65
  • Wvs Hofstra90–70
  • Lvs Ole Miss79–80
  • Wvs Auburn96–84

A week or more of rest.