1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 9
  3. CLE @ BGSU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 9

Cleveland State Vikings at Bowling Green Falcons

Stroh Center · at Bowling Green
#315CLECleveland St
@
#200BGSUBowling Green
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CLEThis seasonBGSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BGSU 83–72 · win probability BGSU 83%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BGSU has more of the edges

CLE 0, BGSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BGSUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CLE 27.0%, BGSU 28.7%. Defensive: CLE 63.4%, BGSU 73.1%
BGSUBig
BGSU offense vs CLE defense
Offense 172nd of 366 against a defense 356th, on the model’s ratings
BGSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CLE 17.9%, BGSU 16.4%. Forced: CLE 15.1%, BGSU 18.5%
BGSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CLE 54.2 and allows 57.2; BGSU 51.8 and allows 51.0
BGSUSmall
Home court
BGSU at home. This season: BGSU 0-0 at home, CLE 0-0 away
BGSUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CLE 0%, BGSU 24%. Transfers in: CLE 7, BGSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: CLE 37.9, BGSU 37.0. Allowed: CLE 35.5, BGSU 37.2
Context
Schedule so far
CLE has played the 222nd-hardest schedule, BGSU the 192nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: CLE plays 71.4 a game (56th fastest), BGSU 70.5 (96th). Faster games mean more points
Even
CLE offense vs BGSU defense
Offense 248th of 366 against a defense 231st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
CLE hits 37.5% and allows 36.1%; BGSU hits 34.4% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 50.8% and 34.2% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BGSU -11.0—
Total—154.8—
Projected score—CLE 71.9 · BGSU 82.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBGSU -6.4—
1H total72.3—
1H projected scoreCLE 33 · BGSU 39.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Bowling Green has the better starters

Position by position: Cleveland St 0, Bowling Green 2, even 3
Cleveland StBetterBowling Green
G O. Bronston TR10.3 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55
BGSUSmall
G J. Johnson TR13.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.5 ast Score 80
G J. Lowery TR4.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30
Even
G J. Cranford TR11.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 35
G R. Griffith TR3.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 18
BGSUBig
G J. Shackelford11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 59
G C. Stinson TR1.2 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 14
No call
F A. Goins3.1 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
C D. Vorst TR7.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50
No call
F C. Essandoko TR2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
Cleveland StBetterBowling Green
CLE offense248th of 366 · -7.5
Even
BGSU defense231st of 366 · -6.1
CLE defense356th of 366 · -10.1
BGSUBig
BGSU offense172nd of 366 · -5.3
Backcourt-3.5 · 4 players
BGSUBig
Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.2 · 1 player
CLESmall
Frontcourt-1.3 · 2 players
Bench+0.0 · 2 players
CLESmall
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCLE betterBGSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Cleveland St
Guards
O. Bronston21 min · TRJ. Lowery15 min · TRR. Griffith14 min · TRC. Stinson8 min · TRA. Bruskotter7 min · TRM. BaysNew
Forwards
D. Jones2 min · TRG. HeadingsNewB. McCruterNew
Centers
D. Vorst21 min · TRB. WhiteNew
Bowling Green
Guards
J. Johnson28 min · TRJ. Cranford26 min · TRJ. Shackelford24 minM. Leach8 minT. Beckford7 min · TRC. Dedivanaj2 min
Forwards
A. Goins8 minC. Essandoko8 min · TRC. Karel5 minP. Squire3 minL. AtenyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CLEBGSU
Scoring
78.6 #89Points per game76.8 #124
1.10 #133Points per possession1.08 #177
71.4 #56Pace (possessions)70.5 #96
Shooting
54.2 #62Effective FG%51.8 #153
37.5 #213-point %34.4 #148
50.8 #113-point attempt rate34.2 #289
37.9 #105Free throw rate37.0 #129
Possessions
17.9 #264Turnover rate16.4 #164
27.0 #294Offensive rebound rate28.7 #244
14.8 #100Assists per game13.1 #203
Defense
88.6 #363Points allowed72.7 #127
1.24 #363Points allowed per possession1.04 #71
57.2 #360Opponent effective FG%51.0 #163
36.1 #309Opponent 3-point %33.5 #161
15.1 #279Turnovers forced18.5 #73
63.4 #356Defensive rebound rate73.1 #31
5.5 #289Steals per game8.2 #30
2.6 #297Blocks per game3.5 #138
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cleveland St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Wright St61–90
  • Wvs IU Indy101–93
  • L@ Robert Morris64–83
  • Lvs N Kentucky70–81
  • Lvs Purdue FW86–92

A week or more of rest.

Bowling Green

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Toledo76–77
  • W@ E Michigan77–69
  • Wvs UMass81–62
  • Lvs W Michigan79–88
  • L@ Miami OH77–91

A week or more of rest.