West Florida Argonauts vs Cleveland State Vikings: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 12:00 AM ETEvent Center · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: West Florida and Cleveland St
UWF	This season	CLE
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UWF 79–77 · win probability UWF 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

UWF 0, CLE 0 · Before any stats

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UWF -1.2	—
Total	—	156.1	—
Projected score	—	UWF 78.6 · CLE 77.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UWF -0.8	—
1H total	72.9	—
1H projected score	UWF 36.9 · CLE 36	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UWF	—	—	—	—
CLE LLLWL	12-18	40%	2-0	—

Venue/role: UWF neutral site; CLE neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UWF	—	—	—
CLE OUUOU	19-11	63%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

West Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs GB	No recent meeting
Nov 22	@ USA	No recent meeting
Nov 25	@ NWST	No recent meeting

Cleveland St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ AAMU	W86–59WU
Nov 17	@ XAV	L68–72WU
Nov 21	vs KENT	L71–91LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

West Florida has no 2025-26 games yet.

Cleveland St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-11

63% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L W L L L L L L L W L L L L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1840%

W L W W L L W L L L L W W L L L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1163%

O O O O O U U O U O U O U O O O O O O O U U U O O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LUC	L 88-91	+17.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 10	@NU	L 63-110	+23.5	L −23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsKENT	L 95-102	+11.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 197
Nov 16	vsRAD	W 87-82	+8.5	W +13.5	162.5	O 169
Nov 19	vsVAL	L 75-90	-2.5	L −17.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 22	@KENT	L 71-91	+15.5	L −4.5	172.5	U 162
Nov 28	@MIZ	L 59-86	+31.5	W +4.5	170.5	U 145
Dec 3	@NKU	L 80-95	+14.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 175
Dec 6	vsDETM	L 59-71	-1.5	L −13.5	158.5	U 130
Dec 17	@UAB	L 77-101	+18.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 178
Dec 21	vsMILW	L 71-81	+6.5	L −3.5	160.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsIUIN	W 99-86	-1.5	W +11.5	172.5	O 185
Jan 4	@PFW	L 71-74	+11.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 145
Jan 9	@OAK	L 74-97	+15.5	L −7.5	169.5	O 171
Jan 11	@DETM	L 84-94	+6.5	L −3.5	162.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsGB	L 73-88	+3.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 17	vsYSU	W 80-78	+8.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 21	@WRST	W 85-79	+15.5	W +21.5	156.5	O 164
Jan 30	@GB	W 89-82	+7.5	W +14.5	150.5	O 171
Feb 1	@MILW	W 90-88	+9.5	W +11.5	160.5	O 178
Feb 4	vsOAK	W 91-78	+7.5	W +20.5	170.5	U 169
Feb 7	@IUIN	L 74-82	+2.5	L −5.5	169.5	U 156
Feb 12	vsRMU	L 68-85	+3.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 15	vsWRST	L 90-102	+7.5	L −4.5	157.5	O 192
Feb 18	@YSU	L 82-106	+11.5	L −12.5	157.5	O 188
Feb 22	vsPFW	L 86-92	+3.5	L −2.5	163.5	O 178
Feb 25	vsNKU	L 70-81	+8.5	L −2.5	166.5	U 151
Feb 28	@RMU	L 64-83	+12.5	L −6.5	157.5	U 147
Mar 2	vsIUIN	W 101-93	+2.5	W +10.5	169.5	O 194
Mar 4	@WRST	L 61-90	+14.5	L −14.5	162.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LUC

L 88-91

+14.5

L 63-110

−23.5

KENT

L 95-102

+4.5

RAD

W 87-82

+13.5

VAL

L 75-90

−17.5

KENT

L 71-91

−4.5

MIZ

L 59-86

+4.5

NKU

L 80-95

−0.5

DETM

L 59-71

−13.5

UAB

L 77-101

−5.5

MILW

L 71-81

−3.5

IUIN

W 99-86

+11.5

PFW

L 71-74

+8.5

OAK

L 74-97

−7.5

DETM

L 84-94

−3.5

L 73-88

−11.5

YSU

W 80-78

+10.5

WRST

W 85-79

+21.5

W 89-82

+14.5

MILW

W 90-88

+11.5

OAK

W 91-78

+20.5

IUIN

L 74-82

−5.5

RMU

L 68-85

−13.5

WRST

L 90-102

−4.5

YSU

L 82-106

−12.5

PFW

L 86-92

−2.5

NKU

L 70-81

−2.5

RMU

L 64-83

−6.5

IUIN

W 101-93

+10.5

WRST

L 61-90

−14.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LUC

L 88-91

+27.5

L 63-110

+21.5

KENT

L 95-102

+31.5

RAD

W 87-82

+6.5

VAL

L 75-90

+6.5

KENT

L 71-91

−10.5

MIZ

L 59-86

−25.5

NKU

L 80-95

+16.5

DETM

L 59-71

−28.5

UAB

L 77-101

+21.5

MILW

L 71-81

−8.5

IUIN

W 99-86

+12.5

PFW

L 71-74

−14.5

OAK

L 74-97

+1.5

DETM

L 84-94

+15.5

L 73-88

+10.5

YSU

W 80-78

+5.5

WRST

W 85-79

+7.5

W 89-82

+20.5

MILW

W 90-88

+17.5

OAK

W 91-78

−1.5

IUIN

L 74-82

−13.5

RMU

L 68-85

−1.5

WRST

L 90-102

+34.5

YSU

L 82-106

+30.5

PFW

L 86-92

+14.5

NKU

L 70-81

−15.5

RMU

L 64-83

−10.5

IUIN

W 101-93

+24.5

WRST

L 61-90

−11.5

over 19under 11avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: West Florida 1, Cleveland St 1, even 3

West FloridaBetterCleveland St

G E. Wali TR5.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 9

CLEBig

G O. Bronston TR10.3 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55

G C. Monroe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G J. Lowery TR4.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30

F D. Dickerson TR5.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 63

UWFBig

G R. Griffith TR3.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 18

F I. Alexander NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G C. Stinson TR1.2 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 14

F T. Hall NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

C D. Vorst TR7.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50

West FloridaBetterCleveland St

UWF offense263rd of 366 · -8.1

UWFSmall

CLE defense356th of 366 · -10.1

UWF defense341st of 366 · -9.1

CLESmall

CLE offense248th of 366 · -7.5

Backcourt-3.1 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-3.5 · 4 players

Frontcourt+0.2 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+0.2 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+0.0 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestUWF betterCLE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

West Florida

Guards

E. Wali26 min · TRC. MonroeNewJ. KingNewA. GodleyNewC. ValarezoNewR. FariasNew

Forwards

D. Dickerson14 min · TRI. AlexanderNewT. HallNewS. RutatikaNewJ. SamuelNewT. ThompsonNew

Cleveland St

Guards

O. Bronston21 min · TRJ. Lowery15 min · TRR. Griffith14 min · TRC. Stinson8 min · TRA. Bruskotter7 min · TRM. BaysNew

Forwards

D. Jones2 min · TRG. HeadingsNewB. McCruterNew

Centers

D. Vorst21 min · TRB. WhiteNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26, 0 games in · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UWF—

CLE78.6 #89

Points per possession

UWF—

CLE1.10 #133

Pace (possessions)

UWF—

CLE71.4 #56

Shooting

Effective FG%

UWF—

CLE54.2 #62

3-point %

UWF—

CLE37.5 #21

3-point attempt rate

UWF—

CLE50.8 #11

Free throw rate

UWF—

CLE37.9 #105

Possessions

Turnover rate

UWF—

CLE17.9 #264

Offensive rebound rate

UWF—

CLE27.0 #294

Assists per game

UWF—

CLE14.8 #100

Defense

Points allowed

UWF—

CLE88.6 #363

Points allowed per possession

UWF—

CLE1.24 #363

Opponent effective FG%

UWF—

CLE57.2 #360

Opponent 3-point %

UWF—

CLE36.1 #309

Turnovers forced

UWF—

CLE15.1 #279

Defensive rebound rate

UWF—

CLE63.4 #356

Steals per game

UWF—

CLE5.5 #289

Blocks per game

UWF—

CLE2.6 #297

UWF		CLE
Scoring
—	Points per game	78.6 #89
—	Points per possession	1.10 #133
—	Pace (possessions)	71.4 #56
Shooting
—	Effective FG%	54.2 #62
—	3-point %	37.5 #21
—	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #11
—	Free throw rate	37.9 #105
Possessions
—	Turnover rate	17.9 #264
—	Offensive rebound rate	27.0 #294
—	Assists per game	14.8 #100
Defense
—	Points allowed	88.6 #363
—	Points allowed per possession	1.24 #363
—	Opponent effective FG%	57.2 #360
—	Opponent 3-point %	36.1 #309
—	Turnovers forced	15.1 #279
—	Defensive rebound rate	63.4 #356
—	Steals per game	5.5 #289
—	Blocks per game	2.6 #297

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

West Florida

0-0 in 2025-26 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

No games yet

A week or more of rest.

Cleveland St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Wright St61–90
Wvs IU Indy101–93
L@ Robert Morris64–83
Lvs N Kentucky70–81
Lvs Purdue FW86–92

A week or more of rest.

West Florida Argonauts vs Cleveland State Vikings

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Cleveland St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

West Florida

Cleveland St