Boston University Terriers at Brown Bears: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 7:00 PM ETPizzitola Sports Center · at Brown

#156BRWNBrown

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Boston U and Brown
BU	This season	BRWN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BRWN 75–66 · win probability BRWN 79%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BRWN has more of the edges

BU 3, BRWN 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BRWNBig

BU offense vs BRWN defense

Offense 305th of 366 against a defense 124th, on the model’s ratings

BUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: BU 31.4, BRWN 28.1. Allowed: BU 30.5, BRWN 37.6

Context

Schedule so far

BU has played the 296th-hardest schedule, BRWN the 176th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BRWNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BU 17.7%, BRWN 19.4%. Forced: BU 13.0%, BRWN 18.8%

BUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BU 57.5 and allows 53.6; BRWN 48.6 and allows 51.3

BRWNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BU 52%, BRWN 100%. Transfers in: BU 1, BRWN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

BUSmall

Three-pointers

BU hits 38.9% and allows 36.6%; BRWN hits 30.3% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 43.8% and 36.3% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: BU plays 65.2 a game (340th fastest), BRWN 68.0 (229th). Faster games mean more points

BRWNSmall

Home court

BRWN at home. This season: BRWN 0-0 at home, BU 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BU 28.0%, BRWN 29.0%. Defensive: BU 72.0%, BRWN 70.0%

Even

BRWN offense vs BU defense

Offense 220th of 366 against a defense 201st, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	BRWN -9.1	—
Total	—	140.4	—
Projected score	—	BU 65.7 · BRWN 74.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BRWN -5.3	—
1H total	65.7	—
1H projected score	BU 30.2 · BRWN 35.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BU WWWWL	17-16	52%	8-10	—
BRWN WWLWL	13-12	52%	5-7	—

Venue/role: BU away; BRWN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BU UUOOU	19-14	58%	16-17
BRWN OOOOU	13-12	52%	7-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
BRWN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Boston U

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ NU	L52–76LU
Nov 15	vs DART	L64–77LU
Nov 18	@ MRMK	L79–91LO

Brown

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ LEH	No recent meeting
Nov 12	vs CAN	W83–76LO
Nov 14	@ SIE	L46–62LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BU 1–0 BRWNBU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · BU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2025-26	BRWN 77 @ BU 90	BU -3.5	BU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Boston U

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W L W L L W L L L L L W L L W W L L W L L L W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

W L W L L W W L L L L W L L W W L L L W L L W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

O U O O U O O U O U U O O U O O O U O O U O U O O O U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NE	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@NU	L 52-76	+17.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 12	vsBRWN	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 15	vsMRMK	L 79-91	-2.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 18	@COLU	L 49-54	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 22	vsHARV	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 25	@PSU	L 87-96	+14.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	@NKU	L 65-74	+7.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 6	@UNH	L 82-88	-5.5	L −11.5	134.5	O 170
Dec 10	vsME	L 59-69	-8.5	L −18.5	128.5	U 128
Dec 13	@DART	L 64-77	+2.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 141
Dec 21	vsUML	W 88-76	-5.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 31	@NAVY	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	137.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsAMER	L 62-64	-1.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@LAF	W 83-67	-1.5	W +14.5	142.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsARMY	W 100-91	-7.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 14	vsLEH	L 91-93	-4.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 184
Jan 17	@L-MD	L 57-74	-1.5	L −18.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 21	vsLAF	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 24	@COLG	L 79-80	+7.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 28	vsNAVY	L 50-58	+1.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 108
Jan 31	@BUCK	L 97-103	-1.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 200
Feb 2	@HC	W 72-64	-2.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsL-MD	W 78-69	-5.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 11	@ARMY	W 85-68	-2.5	W +14.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsBUCK	W 82-69	-5.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 16	vsCOLG	W 85-58	+2.5	W +29.5	145.5	U 143
Feb 22	@LEH	L 67-70	-2.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 25	vsHC	W 78-63	-8.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 28	@AMER	W 68-65	+3.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	vsAMER	W 75-73	-1.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 8	@NAVY	W 73-72	+6.5	W +7.5	136.5	O 145
Mar 11	@LEH	L 60-74	-2.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-75

+3.5

L 52-76

−6.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+9.5

MRMK

L 79-91

−14.5

COLU

L 49-54

−0.5

HARV

W 75-74

+5.5

PSU

L 87-96

+5.5

NKU

L 65-74

−1.5

UNH

L 82-88

−11.5

L 59-69

−18.5

DART

L 64-77

−10.5

UML

W 88-76

+6.5

NAVY

L 77-82

−0.5

AMER

L 62-64

−3.5

LAF

W 83-67

+14.5

ARMY

W 100-91

+1.5

LEH

L 91-93

−6.5

L-MD

L 57-74

−18.5

LAF

W 77-73

−0.5

COLG

L 79-80

+6.5

NAVY

L 50-58

−6.5

BUCK

L 97-103

−7.5

W 72-64

+5.5

L-MD

W 78-69

+3.5

ARMY

W 85-68

+14.5

BUCK

W 82-69

+7.5

COLG

W 85-58

+29.5

LEH

L 67-70

−5.5

W 78-63

+6.5

AMER

W 68-65

+6.5

AMER

W 75-73

+0.5

NAVY

W 73-72

+7.5

LEH

L 60-74

−16.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-75

+8.5

L 52-76

−8.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+37.5

MRMK

L 79-91

+34.5

COLU

L 49-54

−41.5

HARV

W 75-74

+12.5

PSU

L 87-96

+40.5

NKU

L 65-74

−4.5

UNH

L 82-88

+35.5

L 59-69

−0.5

DART

L 64-77

−3.5

UML

W 88-76

+18.5

NAVY

L 77-82

+21.5

AMER

L 62-64

−16.5

LAF

W 83-67

+7.5

ARMY

W 100-91

+50.5

LEH

L 91-93

+39.5

L-MD

L 57-74

−17.5

LAF

W 77-73

+4.5

COLG

L 79-80

+11.5

NAVY

L 50-58

−30.5

BUCK

L 97-103

+61.5

W 72-64

−3.5

L-MD

W 78-69

+1.5

ARMY

W 85-68

+12.5

BUCK

W 82-69

+13.5

COLG

W 85-58

−2.5

LEH

L 67-70

−4.5

W 78-63

−0.5

AMER

W 68-65

−7.5

AMER

W 75-73

+6.5

NAVY

W 73-72

+8.5

LEH

L 60-74

−4.5

over 19under 14avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Brown

25 games played

Straight up

7-18

28% wins

Against the spread

13-12

52% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-12

52% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-1828%

L L L L W L W W L W L L L W L L L L L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1252%

L W L L W L W W W W W L L W L L L L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1252%

U O O U U O U U U O O U O O U U U O O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIE	L 46-62	+3.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 9	vsUVM	L 84-89	+5.5	W +0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 12	@BU	L 77-90	+3.5	L −9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 14	vsHAMP	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 18	vsHC	W 68-49	-2.5	W +16.5	141.5	U 117
Nov 20	@STBK	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 150
Nov 23	@ME	W 58-53	-1.5	W +3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 26	@UNH	W 59-47	-5.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 106
Dec 2	@URI	L 56-66	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 122
Dec 5	vsBRY	W 75-56	-6.5	W +12.5	130.5	O 131
Dec 9	@PROV	L 79-86	+19.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 165
Jan 5	vsYALE	L 53-70	+8.5	L −8.5	142.5	U 123
Jan 10	@PENN	L 73-81	+5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 17	vsCOLU	W 86-80	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 166
Jan 19	vsCOR	L 67-89	+2.5	L −19.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	@PRIN	L 53-63	+4.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 116
Jan 30	vsHARV	L 59-69	+1.5	L −8.5	132.5	U 128
Jan 31	vsDART	L 70-77	-1.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 6	@YALE	L 69-81	+15.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 13	@HARV	L 53-56	+7.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 109
Feb 14	@DART	W 79-76	+2.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 155
Feb 20	vsPRIN	W 80-71	-2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 151
Feb 27	@COLU	L 62-80	+5.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 142
Feb 28	@COR	L 80-86	+9.5	W +3.5	156.5	O 166
Mar 6	vsPENN	L 61-82	-1.5	L −22.5	146.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−12.5

UVM

L 84-89

+0.5

L 77-90

−9.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−10.5

W 68-49

+16.5

STBK

L 70-80

−6.5

W 58-53

+3.5

UNH

W 59-47

+6.5

URI

L 56-66

+3.5

BRY

W 75-56

+12.5

PROV

L 79-86

+12.5

YALE

L 53-70

−8.5

PENN

L 73-81

−2.5

COLU

W 86-80

+8.5

COR

L 67-89

−19.5

PRIN

L 53-63

−5.5

HARV

L 59-69

−8.5

DART

L 70-77

−8.5

YALE

L 69-81

+3.5

HARV

L 53-56

+4.5

DART

W 79-76

+5.5

PRIN

W 80-71

+6.5

COLU

L 62-80

−12.5

COR

L 80-86

+3.5

PENN

L 61-82

−22.5

covered 13didn’t cover 12avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−34.5

UVM

L 84-89

+41.5

L 77-90

+37.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−4.5

W 68-49

−24.5

STBK

L 70-80

+13.5

W 58-53

−16.5

UNH

W 59-47

−30.5

URI

L 56-66

−16.5

BRY

W 75-56

+0.5

PROV

L 79-86

+19.5

YALE

L 53-70

−19.5

PENN

L 73-81

+8.5

COLU

W 86-80

+22.5

COR

L 67-89

−7.5

PRIN

L 53-63

−18.5

HARV

L 59-69

−4.5

DART

L 70-77

+4.5

YALE

L 69-81

+9.5

HARV

L 53-56

−22.5

DART

W 79-76

+15.5

PRIN

W 80-71

+21.5

COLU

L 62-80

+1.5

COR

L 80-86

+9.5

PENN

L 61-82

−3.5

over 13under 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Brown has the better starters

Position by position: Boston U 1, Brown 3, even 1

Boston UBetterBrown

G A. Abdullah8.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 13

BRWNSmall

G J. Jenkins8.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 47

G D. Tisinger6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 37

BUSmall

G A. Uchidiuno9.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 20

G K. Alexander1 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G M. Wrisby-Jefferson4.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 25

F S. Hughes9.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10

BRWNSmall

G D. Rochester5.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 27

F Q. Nielsen1 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 5

BRWNBig

F N. Dabo7.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 72

Boston UBetterBrown

BU offense305th of 366 · -9.5

BRWNBig

BRWN defense124th of 366 · -2.2

BU defense201st of 366 · -5.0

Even

BRWN offense220th of 366 · -6.7

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

BUSmall

Backcourt-6.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.3 · 2 players

BRWNBig

Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player

Bench-0.1 · 3 players

BUSmall

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBU betterBRWN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Boston U

Guards

A. Abdullah30 minD. Tisinger20 minK. Alexander11 minP. Carr2 minA. ZakheimNewJ. TerryNew

Forwards

S. Hughes30 minQ. Nielsen8 minM. Oberti4 min · TRA. Bhesania3 minM. BaptisteNewD. LloydNew

Brown

Guards

J. Jenkins31 minA. Uchidiuno26 minM. Wrisby-Jefferson23 minD. Rochester22 minI. Langham21 minB. Loughlin18 min

Forwards

N. Dabo24 minC. O'Sullivan11 minW. DeGraaf8 minE. JamgbadiNewL. JonesNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BU74.5 #176

BRWN67.2 #330

Points per possession

BU1.14 #72

BRWN0.98 #338

Pace (possessions)

BU65.2 #340

BRWN68.0 #229

Shooting

Effective FG%

BU57.5 #11

BRWN48.6 #299

3-point %

BU38.9 #5

BRWN30.3 #338

3-point attempt rate

BU43.8 #92

BRWN36.3 #244

Free throw rate

BU31.4 #270

BRWN28.1 #342

Possessions

Turnover rate

BU17.7 #252

BRWN19.4 #334

Offensive rebound rate

BU28.0 #269

BRWN29.0 #236

Assists per game

BU14.2 #131

BRWN14.8 #99

Defense

Points allowed

BU74.5 #174

BRWN72.4 #115

Points allowed per possession

BU1.14 #310

BRWN1.07 #134

Opponent effective FG%

BU53.6 #288

BRWN51.3 #176

Opponent 3-point %

BU36.6 #330

BRWN33.5 #157

Turnovers forced

BU13.0 #353

BRWN18.8 #57

Defensive rebound rate

BU72.0 #65

BRWN70.0 #164

Steals per game

BU4.7 #346

BRWN7.5 #82

Blocks per game

BU3.3 #181

BRWN3.8 #104

BU		BRWN
Scoring
74.5 #176	Points per game	67.2 #330
1.14 #72	Points per possession	0.98 #338
65.2 #340	Pace (possessions)	68.0 #229
Shooting
57.5 #11	Effective FG%	48.6 #299
38.9 #5	3-point %	30.3 #338
43.8 #92	3-point attempt rate	36.3 #244
31.4 #270	Free throw rate	28.1 #342
Possessions
17.7 #252	Turnover rate	19.4 #334
28.0 #269	Offensive rebound rate	29.0 #236
14.2 #131	Assists per game	14.8 #99
Defense
74.5 #174	Points allowed	72.4 #115
1.14 #310	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #134
53.6 #288	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #176
36.6 #330	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #157
13.0 #353	Turnovers forced	18.8 #57
72.0 #65	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #164
4.7 #346	Steals per game	7.5 #82
3.3 #181	Blocks per game	3.8 #104

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Boston U

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh60–74
W@ Navy73–72
Wvs American75–73
W@ American68–65
Wvs Holy Cross78–63

A week or more of rest.

Brown

7-18 in 2025-26 overall · 3-11 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Penn61–82
L@ Cornell80–86
L@ Columbia62–80
Wvs Princeton80–71
W@ Dartmouth79–76

A week or more of rest.

Boston University Terriers at Brown Bears

What could decide it: BRWN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Boston U

Brown

Brown has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Boston U

Brown