Boston University Terriers at Northwestern Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 8:00 PM ETWelsh-Ryan Arena · at Northwestern

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Boston U and Northwestern
BU	This season	NU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NU 85–60 · win probability NU 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NU has more of the edges

BU 2, NU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NUBig

BU offense vs NU defense

Offense 305th of 366 against a defense 42nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BU has played the 296th-hardest schedule, NU the 36th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BU 17.7%, NU 13.1%. Forced: BU 13.0%, NU 17.5%

NUBig

NU offense vs BU defense

Offense 67th of 366 against a defense 201st, on the model’s ratings

BUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BU 28.0%, NU 28.1%. Defensive: BU 72.0%, NU 65.3%

NUSmall

Home court

NU at home. This season: NU 0-0 at home, BU 0-0 away

BUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BU 52%, NU 24%. Transfers in: BU 1, NU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

BU hits 38.9% and allows 36.6%; NU hits 33.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 43.8% and 34.0% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BU 31.4, NU 33.9. Allowed: BU 30.5, NU 34.8

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BU 57.5 and allows 53.6; NU 51.7 and allows 51.0

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: BU plays 65.2 a game (340th fastest), NU 65.5 (328th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NU -24.4	—
Total	—	145.3	—
Projected score	—	BU 60.4 · NU 84.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NU -14.4	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	BU 26.8 · NU 41.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BU WWWWL	17-16	52%	8-10	—
NU WWWWW	18-16	53%	8-9	—

Venue/role: BU away; NU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BU UUOOU	19-14	58%	16-17
NU UUUUO	15-19	44%	15-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
NU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Boston U

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs DART	L64–77LU
Nov 18	@ MRMK	L79–91LO
Nov 21	vs COLU	L49–54LU

Northwestern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs DEP	W81–79LO
Nov 16	vs COLU	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs VT	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BU 0–1 NUNU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · BU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 7, 2025-26	BU 52 @ NU 76	NU -17.5	NU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Boston U

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W L W L L W L L L L L W L L W W L L W L L L W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

W L W L L W W L L L L W L L W W L L L W L L W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

O U O O U O O U O U U O O U O O O U O O U O U O O O U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NE	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@NU	L 52-76	+17.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 12	vsBRWN	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 15	vsMRMK	L 79-91	-2.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 18	@COLU	L 49-54	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 22	vsHARV	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 25	@PSU	L 87-96	+14.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	@NKU	L 65-74	+7.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 6	@UNH	L 82-88	-5.5	L −11.5	134.5	O 170
Dec 10	vsME	L 59-69	-8.5	L −18.5	128.5	U 128
Dec 13	@DART	L 64-77	+2.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 141
Dec 21	vsUML	W 88-76	-5.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 31	@NAVY	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	137.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsAMER	L 62-64	-1.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@LAF	W 83-67	-1.5	W +14.5	142.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsARMY	W 100-91	-7.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 14	vsLEH	L 91-93	-4.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 184
Jan 17	@L-MD	L 57-74	-1.5	L −18.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 21	vsLAF	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 24	@COLG	L 79-80	+7.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 28	vsNAVY	L 50-58	+1.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 108
Jan 31	@BUCK	L 97-103	-1.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 200
Feb 2	@HC	W 72-64	-2.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsL-MD	W 78-69	-5.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 11	@ARMY	W 85-68	-2.5	W +14.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsBUCK	W 82-69	-5.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 16	vsCOLG	W 85-58	+2.5	W +29.5	145.5	U 143
Feb 22	@LEH	L 67-70	-2.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 25	vsHC	W 78-63	-8.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 28	@AMER	W 68-65	+3.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	vsAMER	W 75-73	-1.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 8	@NAVY	W 73-72	+6.5	W +7.5	136.5	O 145
Mar 11	@LEH	L 60-74	-2.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-75

+3.5

L 52-76

−6.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+9.5

MRMK

L 79-91

−14.5

COLU

L 49-54

−0.5

HARV

W 75-74

+5.5

PSU

L 87-96

+5.5

NKU

L 65-74

−1.5

UNH

L 82-88

−11.5

L 59-69

−18.5

DART

L 64-77

−10.5

UML

W 88-76

+6.5

NAVY

L 77-82

−0.5

AMER

L 62-64

−3.5

LAF

W 83-67

+14.5

ARMY

W 100-91

+1.5

LEH

L 91-93

−6.5

L-MD

L 57-74

−18.5

LAF

W 77-73

−0.5

COLG

L 79-80

+6.5

NAVY

L 50-58

−6.5

BUCK

L 97-103

−7.5

W 72-64

+5.5

L-MD

W 78-69

+3.5

ARMY

W 85-68

+14.5

BUCK

W 82-69

+7.5

COLG

W 85-58

+29.5

LEH

L 67-70

−5.5

W 78-63

+6.5

AMER

W 68-65

+6.5

AMER

W 75-73

+0.5

NAVY

W 73-72

+7.5

LEH

L 60-74

−16.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-75

+8.5

L 52-76

−8.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+37.5

MRMK

L 79-91

+34.5

COLU

L 49-54

−41.5

HARV

W 75-74

+12.5

PSU

L 87-96

+40.5

NKU

L 65-74

−4.5

UNH

L 82-88

+35.5

L 59-69

−0.5

DART

L 64-77

−3.5

UML

W 88-76

+18.5

NAVY

L 77-82

+21.5

AMER

L 62-64

−16.5

LAF

W 83-67

+7.5

ARMY

W 100-91

+50.5

LEH

L 91-93

+39.5

L-MD

L 57-74

−17.5

LAF

W 77-73

+4.5

COLG

L 79-80

+11.5

NAVY

L 50-58

−30.5

BUCK

L 97-103

+61.5

W 72-64

−3.5

L-MD

W 78-69

+1.5

ARMY

W 85-68

+12.5

BUCK

W 82-69

+13.5

COLG

W 85-58

−2.5

LEH

L 67-70

−4.5

W 78-63

−0.5

AMER

W 68-65

−7.5

AMER

W 75-73

+6.5

NAVY

W 73-72

+8.5

LEH

L 60-74

−4.5

over 19under 14avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Northwestern

34 games played

Straight up

15-19

44% wins

Against the spread

18-16

53% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-19

44% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1944%

W W W W L W L L L W W L W L L L L L W L W L L L L L W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1653%

L W W L L L L L L W W W W L W L L L W W W L L W W L L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1944%

U U O O O O O O O U O U U O U O U U U U O U U O O U O U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMERC	W 70-47	-26.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 7	vsBU	W 76-52	-17.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 10	vsCLE	W 110-63	-23.5	W +23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 14	@DEP	W 81-79	-5.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUVA	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 161
Nov 23	vsSC	W 79-77	-4.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 27	vsOKST	L 81-86	-2.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 167
Dec 3	@WIS	L 73-85	+10.5	L −1.5	155.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsOSU	L 82-86	+1.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsJKST	W 93-53	-30.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 16	vsVAL	W 86-70	-14.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsBTLR	L 58-61	+3.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 119
Dec 30	vsHOW	W 80-60	-19.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 140
Jan 3	vsMINN	L 78-84	-4.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 162
Jan 8	@MSU	L 66-76	+13.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 11	@RUTG	L 75-77	-4.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 14	vsILL	L 68-79	+9.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsNEB	L 58-77	+4.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 21	@USC	W 74-68	+6.5	W +12.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 24	@UCLA	L 64-71	+7.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 135
Jan 29	vsPSU	W 94-73	-7.5	W +13.5	148.5	O 167
Jan 31	vsWASH	L 62-76	-1.5	L −15.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 4	@ILL	L 44-84	+16.5	L −23.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 8	@IOWA	L 70-76	+10.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 146
Feb 11	vsMICH	L 75-87	+15.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 14	@NEB	L 49-68	+13.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 117
Feb 18	vsMD	W 78-74	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 24	@IU	W 72-68	+9.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 140
Feb 28	vsORE	W 63-62	-3.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 125
Mar 4	vsPUR	L 66-70	+12.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 136
Mar 7	@MINN	L 66-67	+4.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 133
Mar 10	vsPSU	W 76-66	-4.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 142
Mar 11	vsIU	W 74-61	+6.5	W +19.5	142.5	U 135
Mar 12	vsPUR	L 68-81	+13.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−3.5

W 76-52

+6.5

CLE

W 110-63

+23.5

DEP

W 81-79

−3.5

UVA

L 78-83

−0.5

W 79-77

−2.5

OKST

L 81-86

−7.5

WIS

L 73-85

−1.5

OSU

L 82-86

−2.5

JKST

W 93-53

+9.5

VAL

W 86-70

+1.5

BTLR

L 58-61

+0.5

HOW

W 80-60

+0.5

MINN

L 78-84

−10.5

MSU

L 66-76

+3.5

RUTG

L 75-77

−6.5

ILL

L 68-79

−1.5

NEB

L 58-77

−14.5

USC

W 74-68

+12.5

UCLA

L 64-71

+0.5

PSU

W 94-73

+13.5

WASH

L 62-76

−15.5

ILL

L 44-84

−23.5

IOWA

L 70-76

+4.5

MICH

L 75-87

+3.5

NEB

L 49-68

−5.5

W 78-74

−3.5

W 72-68

+13.5

ORE

W 63-62

−2.5

PUR

L 66-70

+8.5

MINN

L 66-67

+3.5

PSU

W 76-66

+5.5

W 74-61

+19.5

PUR

L 68-81

+0.5

covered 18didn’t cover 16avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−23.5

W 76-52

−8.5

CLE

W 110-63

+21.5

DEP

W 81-79

+14.5

UVA

L 78-83

+11.5

W 79-77

+9.5

OKST

L 81-86

+7.5

WIS

L 73-85

+2.5

OSU

L 82-86

+12.5

JKST

W 93-53

−0.5

VAL

W 86-70

+10.5

BTLR

L 58-61

−35.5

HOW

W 80-60

−8.5

MINN

L 78-84

+23.5

MSU

L 66-76

−1.5

RUTG

L 75-77

+7.5

ILL

L 68-79

−4.5

NEB

L 58-77

−14.5

USC

W 74-68

−7.5

UCLA

L 64-71

−8.5

PSU

W 94-73

+18.5

WASH

L 62-76

−8.5

ILL

L 44-84

−21.5

IOWA

L 70-76

+6.5

MICH

L 75-87

+8.5

NEB

L 49-68

−29.5

W 78-74

+9.5

W 72-68

−5.5

ORE

W 63-62

−16.5

PUR

L 66-70

−9.5

MINN

L 66-67

−0.5

PSU

W 76-66

−1.5

W 74-61

−7.5

PUR

L 68-81

+9.5

over 15under 19avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northwestern has the better starters

Position by position: Boston U 0, Northwestern 3, even 2

Boston UBetterNorthwestern

G A. Abdullah8.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 13

No call

G L. Pratt TR17 pts · 1.7 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked

G D. Tisinger6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 37

NUBig

F J. Karasinski TR21.7 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 97

G K. Alexander1 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F C. Smith TR11.9 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48

F S. Hughes9.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10

NUBig

F L. McEldon TR11.7 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82

F Q. Nielsen1 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 5

NUBig

F O. Federiko TR8.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61

Boston UBetterNorthwestern

BU offense305th of 366 · -9.5

NUBig

NU defense42nd of 366 · +2.7

BU defense201st of 366 · -5.0

NUBig

NU offense67th of 366 · +1.8

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

NUBig

Backcourt+0.9 · 1 player

Frontcourt-4.3 · 2 players

NUBig

Frontcourt+7.1 · 4 players

Bench-0.1 · 3 players

BUSmall

Bench-2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBU betterNU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Boston U

Guards

A. Abdullah30 minD. Tisinger20 minK. Alexander11 minP. Carr2 minA. ZakheimNewJ. TerryNew

Forwards

S. Hughes30 minQ. Nielsen8 minM. Oberti4 min · TRA. Bhesania3 minM. BaptisteNewD. LloydNew

Northwestern

Guards

L. Pratt33 min · TRA. Ciaravino22 minJ. West22 minA. Kostic12 min · TRD. Williams9 min · TRP. Gill4 min

Forwards

J. Karasinski30 min · TRC. Smith30 min · TRL. McEldon26 min · TRO. Federiko23 min · TRR. Soulis20 min · TRE. EschmeyerNew

Centers

S. GhaiNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BU74.5 #176

NU73.2 #220

Points per possession

BU1.14 #72

NU1.12 #100

Pace (possessions)

BU65.2 #340

NU65.5 #328

Shooting

Effective FG%

BU57.5 #11

NU51.7 #159

3-point %

BU38.9 #5

NU33.0 #232

3-point attempt rate

BU43.8 #92

NU34.0 #296

Free throw rate

BU31.4 #270

NU33.9 #213

Possessions

Turnover rate

BU17.7 #252

NU13.1 #6

Offensive rebound rate

BU28.0 #269

NU28.1 #260

Assists per game

BU14.2 #131

NU17.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

BU74.5 #174

NU72.0 #106

Points allowed per possession

BU1.14 #310

NU1.09 #210

Opponent effective FG%

BU53.6 #288

NU51.0 #157

Opponent 3-point %

BU36.6 #330

NU33.4 #145

Turnovers forced

BU13.0 #353

NU17.5 #120

Defensive rebound rate

BU72.0 #65

NU65.3 #332

Steals per game

BU4.7 #346

NU5.8 #256

Blocks per game

BU3.3 #181

NU3.6 #131

BU		NU
Scoring
74.5 #176	Points per game	73.2 #220
1.14 #72	Points per possession	1.12 #100
65.2 #340	Pace (possessions)	65.5 #328
Shooting
57.5 #11	Effective FG%	51.7 #159
38.9 #5	3-point %	33.0 #232
43.8 #92	3-point attempt rate	34.0 #296
31.4 #270	Free throw rate	33.9 #213
Possessions
17.7 #252	Turnover rate	13.1 #6
28.0 #269	Offensive rebound rate	28.1 #260
14.2 #131	Assists per game	17.2 #18
Defense
74.5 #174	Points allowed	72.0 #106
1.14 #310	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #210
53.6 #288	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #157
36.6 #330	Opponent 3-point %	33.4 #145
13.0 #353	Turnovers forced	17.5 #120
72.0 #65	Defensive rebound rate	65.3 #332
4.7 #346	Steals per game	5.8 #256
3.3 #181	Blocks per game	3.6 #131

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Boston U

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh60–74
W@ Navy73–72
Wvs American75–73
W@ American68–65
Wvs Holy Cross78–63

A week or more of rest.

Northwestern

15-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue68–81
Wvs Indiana74–61
Wvs Penn State76–66
L@ Minnesota66–67
Lvs Purdue66–70

A week or more of rest.

Boston University Terriers at Northwestern Wildcats

What could decide it: NU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Boston U

Northwestern

Northwestern has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Boston U

Northwestern