Dartmouth Big Green at Boston University Terriers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ETCase Gym · at Boston U

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Dartmouth and Boston U
DART	This season	BU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BU 74–72 · win probability BU 57%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BU has more of the edges

DART 2, BU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

DART has played the 145th-hardest schedule, BU the 296th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: DART plays 69.6 a game (143rd fastest), BU 65.2 (340th). Faster games mean more points

BUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DART 23.7%, BU 28.0%. Defensive: DART 70.3%, BU 72.0%

DARTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DART 38.0, BU 31.4. Allowed: DART 30.7, BU 30.5

DARTSmall

BU offense vs DART defense

Offense 305th of 366 against a defense 229th, on the model’s ratings

BUSmall

DART offense vs BU defense

Offense 261st of 366 against a defense 201st, on the model’s ratings

BUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DART 51.8 and allows 52.7; BU 57.5 and allows 53.6

BUSmall

Home court

BU at home. This season: BU 0-0 at home, DART 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

DART hits 36.1% and allows 34.6%; BU hits 38.9% and allows 36.6%. Threes are 48.7% and 43.8% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DART 40%, BU 52%. Transfers in: DART 1, BU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DART 17.6%, BU 17.7%. Forced: DART 13.8%, BU 13.0%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	BU -1.9	—
Total	—	145.1	—
Projected score	—	DART 71.6 · BU 73.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BU -1.0	—
1H total	67.9	—
1H projected score	DART 33.4 · BU 34.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DART LWLLL	11-14	44%	9-5	—
BU WWWWL	17-16	52%	8-6	—

Venue/role: DART away; BU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DART OUUOO	12-13	48%	9-16
BU UUOOU	19-14	58%	16-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DART	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
BU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Dartmouth

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs HC	W89–64WO
Nov 29	@ APP	L77–85LO
Dec 2	@ DAV	No recent meeting

Boston U

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ MRMK	L79–91LO
Nov 21	vs COLU	L49–54LU
Nov 24	@ HARV	W75–74WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DART 2–3 BUBU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · DART 2-2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 13, 2025-26	BU 64 @ DART 77	DART -2.5	DART W
Nov 16, 2024-25	DART 50 @ BU 78	BU -4.5	BU W
Dec 13, 2023-24	BU 54 @ DART 63	DART -2.5	DART W
Dec 13, 2022-23	DART 59 @ BU 67	BU -7.5	BU W
Dec 11, 2021-22	BU 65 @ DART 62	DART +3	P

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Dartmouth

25 games played

Straight up

9-16

36% wins

Against the spread

11-14

44% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-13

48% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-1636%

L L L W W L L W W L L W W L W L L W L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1444%

L L L W L W L W W L W W W L W L W W L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-1348%

U O O O U O U U O U O U O U U U U O U O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsMRST	L 56-75	-1.5	L −20.5	138.5	U 131
Nov 12	@BRY	L 75-82	+1.5	L −5.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 16	vsAPP	L 77-85	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 162
Nov 29	@SPU	W 87-61	+3.5	W +29.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 3	vsUNH	W 69-68	-8.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 6	@WYO	L 80-93	+14.5	W +1.5	156.5	O 173
Dec 9	@CSU	L 55-76	+20.5	L −0.5	153.5	U 131
Dec 13	vsBU	W 77-64	-2.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 141
Dec 16	@HC	W 89-64	-1.5	W +23.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 19	@SHU	L 63-85	-1.5	L −23.5	155.5	U 148
Dec 29	@FLA	L 72-94	+35.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 166
Jan 5	@HARV	W 76-68	+7.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	@COR	W 102-91	+9.5	W +20.5	175.5	O 193
Jan 17	vsPENN	L 74-84	-2.5	L −12.5	163.5	U 158
Jan 19	vsPRIN	W 71-69	+1.5	W +3.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsCOLU	L 69-79	+2.5	L −7.5	156.5	U 148
Jan 30	@YALE	L 68-83	+15.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 151
Jan 31	@BRWN	W 77-70	+1.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 7	vsHARV	L 58-71	+1.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 13	vsYALE	L 70-83	+9.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsBRWN	L 76-79	-2.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 155
Feb 21	@COLU	W 64-63	+6.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 127
Feb 27	@PENN	L 71-80	+6.5	L −2.5	154.5	U 151
Feb 28	@PRIN	L 61-82	+1.5	L −19.5	142.5	O 143
Mar 7	vsCOR	L 90-111	+4.5	L −16.5	166.5	O 201

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

L 56-75

−20.5

BRY

L 75-82

−5.5

APP

L 77-85

−6.5

SPU

W 87-61

+29.5

UNH

W 69-68

−7.5

WYO

L 80-93

+1.5

CSU

L 55-76

−0.5

W 77-64

+10.5

W 89-64

+23.5

SHU

L 63-85

−23.5

FLA

L 72-94

+13.5

HARV

W 76-68

+15.5

COR

W 102-91

+20.5

PENN

L 74-84

−12.5

PRIN

W 71-69

+3.5

COLU

L 69-79

−7.5

YALE

L 68-83

+0.5

BRWN

W 77-70

+8.5

HARV

L 58-71

−11.5

YALE

L 70-83

−3.5

BRWN

L 76-79

−5.5

COLU

W 64-63

+7.5

PENN

L 71-80

−2.5

PRIN

L 61-82

−19.5

COR

L 90-111

−16.5

covered 11didn’t cover 14avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

L 56-75

−7.5

BRY

L 75-82

+5.5

APP

L 77-85

+21.5

SPU

W 87-61

+3.5

UNH

W 69-68

−10.5

WYO

L 80-93

+16.5

CSU

L 55-76

−22.5

W 77-64

−3.5

W 89-64

+5.5

SHU

L 63-85

−7.5

FLA

L 72-94

+5.5

HARV

W 76-68

−4.5

COR

W 102-91

+17.5

PENN

L 74-84

−5.5

PRIN

W 71-69

−7.5

COLU

L 69-79

−8.5

YALE

L 68-83

−4.5

BRWN

W 77-70

+4.5

HARV

L 58-71

−11.5

YALE

L 70-83

+1.5

BRWN

L 76-79

+15.5

COLU

W 64-63

−23.5

PENN

L 71-80

−3.5

PRIN

L 61-82

+0.5

COR

L 90-111

+34.5

over 12under 13avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Boston U

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W L W L L W L L L L L W L L W W L L W L L L W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

W L W L L W W L L L L W L L W W L L L W L L W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

O U O O U O O U O U U O O U O O O U O O U O U O O O U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NE	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@NU	L 52-76	+17.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 12	vsBRWN	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 15	vsMRMK	L 79-91	-2.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 18	@COLU	L 49-54	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 22	vsHARV	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 25	@PSU	L 87-96	+14.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	@NKU	L 65-74	+7.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 6	@UNH	L 82-88	-5.5	L −11.5	134.5	O 170
Dec 10	vsME	L 59-69	-8.5	L −18.5	128.5	U 128
Dec 13	@DART	L 64-77	+2.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 141
Dec 21	vsUML	W 88-76	-5.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 31	@NAVY	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	137.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsAMER	L 62-64	-1.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@LAF	W 83-67	-1.5	W +14.5	142.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsARMY	W 100-91	-7.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 14	vsLEH	L 91-93	-4.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 184
Jan 17	@L-MD	L 57-74	-1.5	L −18.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 21	vsLAF	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 24	@COLG	L 79-80	+7.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 28	vsNAVY	L 50-58	+1.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 108
Jan 31	@BUCK	L 97-103	-1.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 200
Feb 2	@HC	W 72-64	-2.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsL-MD	W 78-69	-5.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 11	@ARMY	W 85-68	-2.5	W +14.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsBUCK	W 82-69	-5.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 16	vsCOLG	W 85-58	+2.5	W +29.5	145.5	U 143
Feb 22	@LEH	L 67-70	-2.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 25	vsHC	W 78-63	-8.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 28	@AMER	W 68-65	+3.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	vsAMER	W 75-73	-1.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 8	@NAVY	W 73-72	+6.5	W +7.5	136.5	O 145
Mar 11	@LEH	L 60-74	-2.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-75

+3.5

L 52-76

−6.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+9.5

MRMK

L 79-91

−14.5

COLU

L 49-54

−0.5

HARV

W 75-74

+5.5

PSU

L 87-96

+5.5

NKU

L 65-74

−1.5

UNH

L 82-88

−11.5

L 59-69

−18.5

DART

L 64-77

−10.5

UML

W 88-76

+6.5

NAVY

L 77-82

−0.5

AMER

L 62-64

−3.5

LAF

W 83-67

+14.5

ARMY

W 100-91

+1.5

LEH

L 91-93

−6.5

L-MD

L 57-74

−18.5

LAF

W 77-73

−0.5

COLG

L 79-80

+6.5

NAVY

L 50-58

−6.5

BUCK

L 97-103

−7.5

W 72-64

+5.5

L-MD

W 78-69

+3.5

ARMY

W 85-68

+14.5

BUCK

W 82-69

+7.5

COLG

W 85-58

+29.5

LEH

L 67-70

−5.5

W 78-63

+6.5

AMER

W 68-65

+6.5

AMER

W 75-73

+0.5

NAVY

W 73-72

+7.5

LEH

L 60-74

−16.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-75

+8.5

L 52-76

−8.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+37.5

MRMK

L 79-91

+34.5

COLU

L 49-54

−41.5

HARV

W 75-74

+12.5

PSU

L 87-96

+40.5

NKU

L 65-74

−4.5

UNH

L 82-88

+35.5

L 59-69

−0.5

DART

L 64-77

−3.5

UML

W 88-76

+18.5

NAVY

L 77-82

+21.5

AMER

L 62-64

−16.5

LAF

W 83-67

+7.5

ARMY

W 100-91

+50.5

LEH

L 91-93

+39.5

L-MD

L 57-74

−17.5

LAF

W 77-73

+4.5

COLG

L 79-80

+11.5

NAVY

L 50-58

−30.5

BUCK

L 97-103

+61.5

W 72-64

−3.5

L-MD

W 78-69

+1.5

ARMY

W 85-68

+12.5

BUCK

W 82-69

+13.5

COLG

W 85-58

−2.5

LEH

L 67-70

−4.5

W 78-63

−0.5

AMER

W 68-65

−7.5

AMER

W 75-73

+6.5

NAVY

W 73-72

+8.5

LEH

L 60-74

−4.5

over 19under 14avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Dartmouth 1, Boston U 1, even 3

DartmouthBetterBoston U

G C. McNamee5.7 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 34

DARTSmall

G A. Abdullah8.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 13

G L. Williams TR4.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 16

BUSmall

G D. Tisinger6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 37

G N. Abusara5 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 47

No call

G K. Alexander1 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

G C. Hiatt3.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 8

Even

F S. Hughes9.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10

G B. Brown1.5 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F Q. Nielsen1 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 5

DartmouthBetterBoston U

DART offense261st of 366 · -8.0

BUSmall

BU defense201st of 366 · -5.0

DART defense229th of 366 · -6.1

DARTSmall

BU offense305th of 366 · -9.5

Backcourt-7.2 · 5 players

BUSmall

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-4.3 · 2 players

Bench-0.4 · 4 players

Even

Bench-0.1 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestDART betterBU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Dartmouth

Guards

C. McNamee20 minL. Williams20 min · TRN. Abusara17 minC. Hiatt17 minB. Brown9 minC. AldrichNew

Forwards

P. Tivnan6 minS. Simango3 minT. Garrett3 minJ. PollackNew

Centers

A. Strelnikov6 minD. CivelloNew

Boston U

Guards

A. Abdullah30 minD. Tisinger20 minK. Alexander11 minP. Carr2 minA. ZakheimNewJ. TerryNew

Forwards

S. Hughes30 minQ. Nielsen8 minM. Oberti4 min · TRA. Bhesania3 minM. BaptisteNewD. LloydNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DART73.1 #222

BU74.5 #176

Points per possession

DART1.05 #253

BU1.14 #72

Pace (possessions)

DART69.6 #143

BU65.2 #340

Shooting

Effective FG%

DART51.8 #156

BU57.5 #11

3-point %

DART36.1 #51

BU38.9 #5

3-point attempt rate

DART48.7 #22

BU43.8 #92

Free throw rate

DART38.0 #103

BU31.4 #270

Possessions

Turnover rate

DART17.6 #248

BU17.7 #252

Offensive rebound rate

DART23.7 #346

BU28.0 #269

Assists per game

DART12.8 #227

BU14.2 #131

Defense

Points allowed

DART78.4 #276

BU74.5 #174

Points allowed per possession

DART1.13 #287

BU1.14 #310

Opponent effective FG%

DART52.7 #254

BU53.6 #288

Opponent 3-point %

DART34.6 #227

BU36.6 #330

Turnovers forced

DART13.8 #339

BU13.0 #353

Defensive rebound rate

DART70.3 #148

BU72.0 #65

Steals per game

DART5.0 #337

BU4.7 #346

Blocks per game

DART3.5 #147

BU3.3 #181

DART		BU
Scoring
73.1 #222	Points per game	74.5 #176
1.05 #253	Points per possession	1.14 #72
69.6 #143	Pace (possessions)	65.2 #340
Shooting
51.8 #156	Effective FG%	57.5 #11
36.1 #51	3-point %	38.9 #5
48.7 #22	3-point attempt rate	43.8 #92
38.0 #103	Free throw rate	31.4 #270
Possessions
17.6 #248	Turnover rate	17.7 #252
23.7 #346	Offensive rebound rate	28.0 #269
12.8 #227	Assists per game	14.2 #131
Defense
78.4 #276	Points allowed	74.5 #174
1.13 #287	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #310
52.7 #254	Opponent effective FG%	53.6 #288
34.6 #227	Opponent 3-point %	36.6 #330
13.8 #339	Turnovers forced	13.0 #353
70.3 #148	Defensive rebound rate	72.0 #65
5.0 #337	Steals per game	4.7 #346
3.5 #147	Blocks per game	3.3 #181

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Dartmouth

9-16 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Cornell90–111
L@ Princeton61–82
L@ Penn71–80
W@ Columbia64–63
Lvs Brown76–79

A week or more of rest.

Boston U

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh60–74
W@ Navy73–72
Wvs American75–73
W@ American68–65
Wvs Holy Cross78–63

A week or more of rest.

Dartmouth Big Green at Boston University Terriers

What could decide it: BU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Dartmouth

Boston U

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Dartmouth

Boston U