Harvard Crimson at American University Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ETBender Arena · at American

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Harvard and American
HARV	This season	AMER
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AMER 70–69 · win probability AMER 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 137.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HARV has more of the edges

HARV 4, AMER 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HARVBig

Three-pointers

HARV hits 34.7% and allows 32.6%; AMER hits 33.0% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 40.2% and 46.5% of their shots

HARVBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: HARV 25.7, AMER 28.7. Allowed: HARV 26.6, AMER 42.1

HARVBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HARV 53.2 and allows 50.4; AMER 51.5 and allows 54.4

AMERBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HARV 17.5%, AMER 15.6%. Forced: HARV 17.1%, AMER 19.2%

Context

Schedule so far

HARV has played the 153rd-hardest schedule, AMER the 263rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

HARVSmall

AMER offense vs HARV defense

Offense 201st of 366 against a defense 94th, on the model’s ratings

AMERSmall

HARV offense vs AMER defense

Offense 216th of 366 against a defense 122nd, on the model’s ratings

AMERSmall

Home court

AMER at home. This season: AMER 0-0 at home, HARV 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: HARV plays 64.7 a game (350th fastest), AMER 66.7 (289th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HARV 26.8%, AMER 26.9%. Defensive: HARV 71.8%, AMER 70.6%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HARV 81%, AMER 96%. Transfers in: HARV 0, AMER 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	AMER -1.0	—
Total	—	137.9	—
Projected score	—	HARV 68.5 · AMER 69.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AMER -0.5	—
1H total	64.6	—
1H projected score	HARV 32 · AMER 32.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HARV WLLWL	14-14	50%	10-5	—
AMER WWLLL	16-14	53%	8-7	—

Venue/role: HARV away; AMER home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HARV UUUOU	10-18	36%	16-12
AMER UUOUO	15-15	50%	14-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HARV	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
AMER	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Harvard

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs BC	L60–73LU
Nov 20	@ HC	W81–53WU
Nov 24	vs BU	L74–75LO

American

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs TOW	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs RAD	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs UML	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

HARV 1–1 AMERSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · HARV 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2024-25	HARV 55 @ AMER 67	AMER +1.5	AMER W
Nov 29, 2023-24	AMER 75 @ HARV 80	HARV -7.5	AMER W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Harvard

28 games played

Straight up

16-12

57% wins

Against the spread

14-14

50% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-18

36% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1257%

W L W W L L L W L L W L W L W W W L W W W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1450%

L L W W W L L L L L W W W L W W L L W W W L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-1836%

O U U U O O U U O O U U O U U O U O U U U U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsUNH	W 86-75	-15.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsNE	L 60-77	-5.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	@ARMY	W 75-52	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 16	@MRST	W 56-54	+6.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 110
Nov 19	@PSU	L 80-84	+12.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsBU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	@BC	L 60-73	+7.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsBRY	W 56-53	-7.5	L −4.5	137.5	U 109
Dec 3	@MASS	L 71-78	+5.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 149
Dec 6	@FUR	L 69-79	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 20	vsHC	W 81-53	-10.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 23	@SJU	L 59-85	+26.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 144
Dec 28	@COLG	W 78-69	+3.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 5	vsDART	L 68-76	-7.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	@COLU	W 79-54	+5.5	W +30.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 17	vsPRIN	W 87-80	-4.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 167
Jan 19	vsPENN	W 64-63	-5.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsCOR	L 79-86	-1.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 165
Jan 30	@BRWN	W 69-59	-1.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 128
Jan 31	@YALE	W 67-65	+11.5	W +13.5	141.5	U 132
Feb 7	@DART	W 71-58	-1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 13	vsBRWN	W 56-53	-7.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 109
Feb 14	vsYALE	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 151
Feb 21	@COR	W 73-54	+4.5	W +23.5	155.5	U 127
Feb 27	@PRIN	W 58-56	-3.5	L −1.5	130.5	U 114
Feb 28	@PENN	L 61-64	+1.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 125
Mar 6	vsCOLU	W 81-71	-4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 152
Mar 14	vsPENN	L 60-62	-3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

−4.5

L 60-77

−22.5

ARMY

W 75-52

+16.5

MRST

W 56-54

+8.5

PSU

L 80-84

+8.5

L 74-75

−5.5

L 60-73

−5.5

BRY

W 56-53

−4.5

MASS

L 71-78

−1.5

FUR

L 69-79

−5.5

W 81-53

+17.5

SJU

L 59-85

+0.5

COLG

W 78-69

+12.5

DART

L 68-76

−15.5

COLU

W 79-54

+30.5

PRIN

W 87-80

+2.5

PENN

W 64-63

−4.5

COR

L 79-86

−8.5

BRWN

W 69-59

+8.5

YALE

W 67-65

+13.5

DART

W 71-58

+11.5

BRWN

W 56-53

−4.5

YALE

L 75-76

+3.5

COR

W 73-54

+23.5

PRIN

W 58-56

−1.5

PENN

L 61-64

−1.5

COLU

W 81-71

+5.5

PENN

L 60-62

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 14avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

+13.5

L 60-77

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-52

−19.5

MRST

W 56-54

−20.5

PSU

L 80-84

+21.5

L 74-75

+12.5

L 60-73

−5.5

BRY

W 56-53

−28.5

MASS

L 71-78

+5.5

FUR

L 69-79

+6.5

W 81-53

−2.5

SJU

L 59-85

−1.5

COLG

W 78-69

+5.5

DART

L 68-76

−4.5

COLU

W 79-54

−12.5

PRIN

W 87-80

+33.5

PENN

W 64-63

−23.5

COR

L 79-86

+4.5

BRWN

W 69-59

−4.5

YALE

W 67-65

−9.5

DART

W 71-58

−11.5

BRWN

W 56-53

−22.5

YALE

L 75-76

+12.5

COR

W 73-54

−28.5

PRIN

W 58-56

−16.5

PENN

L 61-64

−13.5

COLU

W 81-71

+15.5

PENN

L 60-62

−17.5

over 10under 18avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

American

30 games played

Straight up

14-16

47% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1647%

L W L L W L W W W L L W W L L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1453%

W W L W W L W L W L L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

O O O O O U O O O O U U U U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 28	vsME	W 74-61	-7.5	W +5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsSIE	L 55-59	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsLONG	W 92-66	-5.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsDREX	W 75-73	-4.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	vsUMES	W 78-60	-10.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 138
Dec 18	@VCU	L 83-105	+19.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 188
Dec 22	@UVA	L 51-95	+27.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsL-MD	W 84-69	-8.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	@BU	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@COLG	L 62-64	+5.5	W +3.5	148.5	U 126
Jan 10	vsHC	L 73-84	-8.5	L −19.5	137.5	O 157
Jan 12	vsNAVY	W 65-51	+2.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Jan 18	@ARMY	W 78-67	-4.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 21	vsCOLG	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 24	@HC	W 76-67	-4.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 28	@L-MD	L 68-77	-4.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 31	vsLAF	L 65-67	-5.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsBUCK	L 59-60	-7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	@NAVY	L 73-82	+4.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 155
Feb 11	@LEH	L 82-90	-1.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 172
Feb 14	vsARMY	W 75-63	-9.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 18	@BUCK	W 75-57	-3.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	@LAF	W 75-61	-3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsLEH	L 73-78	-7.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsBU	L 65-68	-3.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	@BU	L 73-75	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+5.5

SIE

L 55-59

−1.5

LONG

W 92-66

+20.5

DREX

W 75-73

−2.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

−2.5

UVA

L 51-95

−16.5

L-MD

W 84-69

+6.5

W 64-62

+3.5

COLG

L 62-64

+3.5

L 73-84

−19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

+16.5

ARMY

W 78-67

+6.5

COLG

W 70-66

+2.5

W 76-67

+4.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−13.5

LAF

L 65-67

−7.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−8.5

NAVY

L 73-82

−4.5

LEH

L 82-90

−9.5

ARMY

W 75-63

+2.5

BUCK

W 75-57

+14.5

LAF

W 75-61

+10.5

LEH

L 73-78

−12.5

L 65-68

−6.5

L 73-75

−0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+1.5

SIE

L 55-59

−23.5

LONG

W 92-66

+9.5

DREX

W 75-73

+10.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

+33.5

UVA

L 51-95

−7.5

L-MD

W 84-69

−1.5

W 64-62

−16.5

COLG

L 62-64

−22.5

L 73-84

+19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

−23.5

ARMY

W 78-67

−2.5

COLG

W 70-66

−10.5

W 76-67

+3.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−2.5

LAF

L 65-67

−10.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−22.5

NAVY

L 73-82

+20.5

LEH

L 82-90

+31.5

ARMY

W 75-63

−6.5

BUCK

W 75-57

−8.5

LAF

W 75-61

−5.5

LEH

L 73-78

+10.5

L 65-68

−7.5

L 73-75

+6.5

over 15under 15avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

American has the better starters

Position by position: Harvard 1, American 2, even 2

HarvardBetterAmerican

G T. Barbour13.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74

HARVBig

G W. Nausadis7.5 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 25

G R. Hinton17 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 88

Even

G M. Collins13.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97

G B. Eisendrath5.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 16

AMERBig

F G. Jones12.4 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 55

G A. Hunt6.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

Even

F M. Mayock8.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 36

G F. Mannino1.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 36

AMERSmall

F J. Iturbe10.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 55

HarvardBetterAmerican

HARV offense216th of 366 · -6.6

AMERSmall

AMER defense122nd of 366 · -2.1

HARV defense94th of 366 · -0.4

HARVSmall

AMER offense201st of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt-0.7 · 5 players

AMERSmall

Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players

Bench-2.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHARV betterAMER betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Harvard

Guards

T. Barbour34 minR. Hinton34 minB. Eisendrath29 minA. Hunt23 minF. Mannino9 minX. Nesbitt5 min

Forwards

R. Sullivan7 minK. Parrish6 minL. Ace-Nasteski6 minA. Dror2 minT. BattiesNewA. TouomouNew

Centers

J. AdigunNew

American

Guards

W. Nausadis23 minM. Collins22 minK. Sebastian22 minD. Hogans6 minJ. Anderson2 minM. Casey1 min

Forwards

G. Jones31 minM. Mayock29 minJ. Iturbe26 minC. McDonald18 minC. Eagan11 minN. JonesNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HARV69.8 #290

AMER72.0 #242

Points per possession

HARV1.08 #184

AMER1.08 #190

Pace (possessions)

HARV64.7 #350

AMER66.7 #289

Shooting

Effective FG%

HARV53.2 #94

AMER51.5 #169

3-point %

HARV34.7 #135

AMER33.0 #235

3-point attempt rate

HARV40.2 #167

AMER46.5 #39

Free throw rate

HARV25.7 #359

AMER28.7 #335

Possessions

Turnover rate

HARV17.5 #236

AMER15.6 #110

Offensive rebound rate

HARV26.8 #302

AMER26.9 #299

Assists per game

HARV14.2 #129

AMER12.5 #248

Defense

Points allowed

HARV67.3 #22

AMER72.7 #124

Points allowed per possession

HARV1.04 #70

AMER1.09 #200

Opponent effective FG%

HARV50.4 #122

AMER54.4 #313

Opponent 3-point %

HARV32.6 #94

AMER35.5 #283

Turnovers forced

HARV17.1 #147

AMER19.2 #40

Defensive rebound rate

HARV71.8 #69

AMER70.6 #127

Steals per game

HARV7.1 #111

AMER7.3 #100

Blocks per game

HARV3.7 #109

AMER1.4 #363

HARV		AMER
Scoring
69.8 #290	Points per game	72.0 #242
1.08 #184	Points per possession	1.08 #190
64.7 #350	Pace (possessions)	66.7 #289
Shooting
53.2 #94	Effective FG%	51.5 #169
34.7 #135	3-point %	33.0 #235
40.2 #167	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #39
25.7 #359	Free throw rate	28.7 #335
Possessions
17.5 #236	Turnover rate	15.6 #110
26.8 #302	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #299
14.2 #129	Assists per game	12.5 #248
Defense
67.3 #22	Points allowed	72.7 #124
1.04 #70	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #200
50.4 #122	Opponent effective FG%	54.4 #313
32.6 #94	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #283
17.1 #147	Turnovers forced	19.2 #40
71.8 #69	Defensive rebound rate	70.6 #127
7.1 #111	Steals per game	7.3 #100
3.7 #109	Blocks per game	1.4 #363

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Harvard

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Penn60–62
Wvs Columbia81–71
L@ Penn61–64
W@ Princeton58–56
W@ Cornell73–54

A week or more of rest.

American

14-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Boston U73–75
Lvs Boston U65–68
Lvs Lehigh73–78
W@ Lafayette75–61
W@ Bucknell75–57

A week or more of rest.

Harvard Crimson at American University Eagles

What could decide it: HARV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Harvard

American

American has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Harvard

American