1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. DEP @ NU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

DePaul Blue Demons at Northwestern Wildcats

Welsh-Ryan Arena · at Northwestern
#66DEPDePaul
@
#59NUNorthwestern
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DEPThis seasonNU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NU 74–70 · win probability NU 65%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NU has more of the edges

DEP 1, NU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DEP 17.7%, NU 13.1%. Forced: DEP 18.7%, NU 17.5%
DEPSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DEP 30.1%, NU 28.1%. Defensive: DEP 69.0%, NU 65.3%
NUSmall
Three-pointers
DEP hits 32.5% and allows 35.4%; NU hits 33.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 39.0% and 34.0% of their shots
NUSmall
Home court
NU at home. This season: NU 0-0 at home, DEP 0-0 away
NUSmall
DEP offense vs NU defense
Offense 92nd of 366 against a defense 42nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: DEP plays 67.7 a game (240th fastest), NU 65.5 (328th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
DEP has played the 72nd-hardest schedule, NU the 36th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
NU offense vs DEP defense
Offense 67th of 366 against a defense 31st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DEP 38%, NU 24%. Transfers in: DEP 6, NU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DEP 35.3, NU 33.9. Allowed: DEP 37.8, NU 34.8
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DEP 49.8 and allows 49.3; NU 51.7 and allows 51.0
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NU -4.4—
Total—143.4—
Projected score—DEP 69.5 · NU 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNU -2.5—
1H total67.1—
1H projected scoreDEP 32.3 · NU 34.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: DePaul 1, Northwestern 1, even 3
DePaulBetterNorthwestern
G K. Holmes TR19.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96
No call
G L. Pratt TR17 pts · 1.7 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked
G A. Popoola TR10.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57
NUBig
F J. Karasinski TR21.7 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 97
G L. Blocker11.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.5 ast Score 77
DEPSmall
F C. Smith TR11.9 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48
G K. Cotton TR14.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87
Even
F L. McEldon TR11.7 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82
C W. Jacques TR8.9 pts · 8.8 reb · 1 ast Score 52
Even
F O. Federiko TR8.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61
DePaulBetterNorthwestern
DEP offense92nd of 366 · -0.3
Even
NU defense42nd of 366 · +2.7
DEP defense31st of 366 · +3.5
Even
NU offense67th of 366 · +1.8
Backcourt+7.2 · 4 players
DEPBig
Backcourt+0.9 · 1 player
Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player
NUBig
Frontcourt+7.1 · 4 players
Bench+0.9 · 5 players
DEPSmall
Bench-2.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDEP betterNU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
DePaul
Guards
K. Holmes32 min · TRA. Popoola29 min · TRL. Blocker29 minK. Cotton28 min · TRN. Meeusen27 min · TRK. McClure19 min
Forwards
M. Gwath19 min · TRT. Pierre-Justin16 minJ. JohnsonNewA. JensenNew
Centers
W. Jacques28 min · TRF. Flores11 min
Northwestern
Guards
L. Pratt33 min · TRA. Ciaravino22 minJ. West22 minA. Kostic12 min · TRD. Williams9 min · TRP. Gill4 min
Forwards
J. Karasinski30 min · TRC. Smith30 min · TRL. McEldon26 min · TRO. Federiko23 min · TRR. Soulis20 min · TRE. EschmeyerNew
Centers
S. GhaiNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DEPNU
Scoring
70.3 #279Points per game73.2 #220
1.04 #280Points per possession1.12 #100
67.7 #240Pace (possessions)65.5 #328
Shooting
49.8 #243Effective FG%51.7 #159
32.5 #2533-point %33.0 #232
39.0 #1913-point attempt rate34.0 #296
35.3 #169Free throw rate33.9 #213
Possessions
17.7 #253Turnover rate13.1 #6
30.1 #197Offensive rebound rate28.1 #260
15.0 #87Assists per game17.2 #18
Defense
69.6 #57Points allowed72.0 #106
1.03 #55Points allowed per possession1.09 #210
49.3 #77Opponent effective FG%51.0 #157
35.4 #274Opponent 3-point %33.4 #145
18.7 #64Turnovers forced17.5 #120
69.0 #205Defensive rebound rate65.3 #332
6.9 #134Steals per game5.8 #256
3.4 #152Blocks per game3.6 #131
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

DePaul

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Georgetown56–63
  • Lvs Butler71–81
  • Lvs Villanova57–76
  • W@ Marquette62–51
  • W@ Creighton72–71

A week or more of rest.

Northwestern

15-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue68–81
  • Wvs Indiana74–61
  • Wvs Penn State76–66
  • L@ Minnesota66–67
  • Lvs Purdue66–70

A week or more of rest.