Memorial Gymnasium (TN) · at Vanderbilt
#295BELLBellarmine
@
#22VANVanderbilt AP #24
LineVAN -32.5moved 1 toward BELL
Total158.5up 1 from 157.5
Season records: Bellarmine and Vanderbilt
BELLThis seasonVAN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VAN 95–63 · win probability VAN 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
VAN -32.5
moved 1 toward BELL
Total
158.5
model 157.5 · Under by 1
Model edge
BELL by 1
model vs market
Public on the spread
84% BELL
76% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VAN has more of the edges

BELL 1, VAN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VANBig
VAN offense vs BELL defense
Offense 22nd of 366 against a defense 345th, on the model’s ratings
VANBig
BELL offense vs VAN defense
Offense 239th of 366 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
BELL has played the 229th-hardest schedule, VAN the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less
VANBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BELL 22.4%, VAN 31.2%. Defensive: BELL 65.8%, VAN 68.5%
VANBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: BELL 59.4 and allows 59.4; VAN 55.3 and allows 49.0
VANBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BELL 15.4%, VAN 13.5%. Forced: BELL 15.1%, VAN 17.7%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: BELL plays 66.7 a game (288th fastest), VAN 70.9 (80th). Faster games mean more points
VANSmall
Three-pointers
BELL hits 38.1% and allows 40.4%; VAN hits 35.6% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 41.2% and 44.2% of their shots
BELLSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BELL 56%, VAN 26%. Transfers in: BELL 1, VAN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
VANSmall
Home court
VAN at home. This season: VAN 0-0 at home, BELL 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BELL 35.0, VAN 38.1. Allowed: BELL 34.3, VAN 39.5

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5155574%51%49%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward BELL
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
BELL +5650 · VAN -55000
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened VAN -33.5 · now VAN -32.5 · moved 1 toward BELLmodel VAN -32
Opened 157.5 · now 158.5 · moved 1 upmodel 157.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
BELL +32.5SpreadVAN -32.5
Bets
Money
Over 158.5TotalUnder 158.5
Bets
Money
BELLWinnerVAN
Bets
Money

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
BELLVANOverUnderBELLVAN
BetMGMMGM-32.5-110+32.5-110158.5-115158.5-105+3300-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-33-115+33-105159-110159-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-32.5-113+32.5-113157.5-112157.5-114——
BovadaBovada-33-115+33-105159-110159-110——
DraftKingsDK-32.5-110+32.5-110158.5-112158.5-108——
FanDuelFD-31.5-110+31.5-110158.5-110158.5-110+8000-100000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-33-111+33-101159-108159-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadVAN -32.5VAN -31.8BELL +0.8
Total158.5157.5Under 1.0
Projected score—BELL 62.9 · VAN 94.6

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadVAN -18.8—
1H total73.6—
1H projected scoreBELL 27.4 · VAN 46.2—

Vanderbilt has the better starters

Position by position: Bellarmine 0, Vanderbilt 5, even 0
BellarmineBetterVanderbilt
G K. Goodin11.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 31
VANBig
G T. Tanner19.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.1 ast Score 100
G T. Doyle10 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 35
VANBig
G A. Glass TR16.1 pts · 3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 86
F S. Donald6.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12
VANBig
F S. Williams-Adams TR7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55
F J. Wassler3.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 4
VANBig
F B. Dak TR11.5 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 90
F T. Tornatta TR3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 26
VANBig
C B. Buyuktuncel TR6.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 61
BellarmineBetterVanderbilt
BELL offense239th of 366 · -7.3
VANBig
VAN defense29th of 366 · +3.7
BELL defense345th of 366 · -9.2
VANBig
VAN offense22nd of 366 · +7.6
Backcourt-3.8 · 2 players
VANBig
Backcourt+10.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt-4.9 · 3 players
VANBig
Frontcourt+3.7 · 3 players
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
VANSmall
Bench-0.4 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestBELL betterVAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bellarmine
Guards
K. Goodin33 minT. Doyle28 minG. Whitaker7 minG. Neal3 minT. Clark2 minJ. GizziNew
Forwards
S. Donald27 minJ. Wassler12 minT. Tornatta9 min · TRA. McAfeeNewB. KlopfensteinNewE. HarrellNew
Vanderbilt
Guards
T. Tanner34 minA. Glass29 min · TRA. BrownNewM. HawkinsNewB. AllenNewC. ByingtonNew
Forwards
S. Williams-Adams27 min · TRB. Dak26 min · TRT. Barrett23 min · TRC. Bing15 minE. MgbakoNewG. NesmithNew
Centers
B. Buyuktuncel24 min · TRJ. Leverett4 min
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BELLVAN
Scoring
78.9 #80Points per game85.7 #14
1.18 #34Points per possession1.21 #9
66.7 #288Pace (possessions)70.9 #80
Shooting
59.4 #3Effective FG%55.3 #31
38.1 #173-point %35.6 #86
41.2 #1453-point attempt rate44.2 #85
35.0 #178Free throw rate38.1 #101
Possessions
15.4 #100Turnover rate13.5 #15
22.4 #354Offensive rebound rate31.2 #158
14.8 #98Assists per game16.3 #40
Defense
83.3 #350Points allowed75.0 #187
1.25 #365Points allowed per possession1.06 #99
59.4 #365Opponent effective FG%49.0 #67
40.4 #364Opponent 3-point %32.6 #96
15.1 #277Turnovers forced17.7 #112
65.8 #320Defensive rebound rate68.5 #231
5.8 #255Steals per game7.9 #40
1.7 #356Blocks per game4.5 #36

Bellarmine

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs C Arkansas73–86
  • Wvs Jacksonville82–79
  • Wvs Austin Peay111–97
  • L@ North Alabama68–73
  • Lvs E Kentucky92–95

A week or more of rest.

Vanderbilt

27-9 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nebraska72–74
  • Wvs McNeese78–68
  • Lvs Arkansas75–86
  • Wvs Florida91–74
  • Wvs Tennessee75–68

A week or more of rest.