Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Vanderbilt Commodores: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM ETMemorial Gymnasium (TN) · at Vanderbilt

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wake Forest and Vanderbilt
WAKE	This season	VAN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VAN 86–71 · win probability VAN 90%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VAN has more of the edges

WAKE 0, VAN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

VANBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WAKE 52.7 and allows 51.8; VAN 55.3 and allows 49.0

VANSmall

VAN offense vs WAKE defense

Offense 22nd of 366 against a defense 96th, on the model’s ratings

VANSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WAKE 30.1%, VAN 31.2%. Defensive: WAKE 67.0%, VAN 68.5%

VANSmall

Home court

VAN at home. This season: VAN 0-0 at home, WAKE 0-0 away

VANSmall

WAKE offense vs VAN defense

Offense 80th of 366 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

VANSmall

Three-pointers

WAKE hits 34.1% and allows 32.9%; VAN hits 35.6% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 43.6% and 44.2% of their shots

VANSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WAKE 15.5%, VAN 13.5%. Forced: WAKE 17.7%, VAN 17.7%

Context

Schedule so far

WAKE has played the 64th-hardest schedule, VAN the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WAKE 9%, VAN 26%. Transfers in: WAKE 6, VAN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: WAKE plays 70.2 a game (112th fastest), VAN 70.9 (80th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: WAKE 35.2, VAN 38.1. Allowed: WAKE 35.7, VAN 39.5

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	VAN -14.8	—
Total	—	156.2	—
Projected score	—	WAKE 70.7 · VAN 85.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VAN -8.7	—
1H total	73.0	—
1H projected score	WAKE 32.1 · VAN 40.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE WWLWL	16-19	46%	3-6	—
VAN WWLLL	18-18	50%	8-8	—

Venue/role: WAKE away; VAN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE UOUOO	20-15	57%	18-17
VAN UOUUU	17-19	47%	27-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
VAN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wake Forest

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs CHSO	W71–56LU
Nov 14	vs SUU	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs MONM	No recent meeting

Vanderbilt

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs MEM	W77–70LU
Nov 13	vs PV	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs EIU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WAKE 0–1 VANVAN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WAKE 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2025-26	VAN 98 @ WAKE 67	WAKE +5.5	VAN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wake Forest

35 games played

Straight up

18-17

51% wins

Against the spread

16-19

46% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-15

57% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1751%

W W L W L W W W L W W W L L W L L W L L L L L W W W L L W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1946%

L L W W W L W L L W W L L L L L W L L L L L W W W W L L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1557%

O U O O O U U O U U O U O U O O O U O O O O O U U O U U O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAMER	W 88-74	-19.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMORE	W 81-65	-22.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 11	vsMICH	L 84-85	+15.5	W +14.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsUML	W 109-75	-30.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 184
Nov 20	vsTTU	L 83-84	+9.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsMEM	W 69-68	-2.5	L −1.5	160.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsCAM	W 99-51	-17.5	W +30.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 28	vsNE	W 86-73	-17.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsOU	L 68-86	-4.5	L −22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsWVU	W 75-66	+2.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 141
Dec 14	vsQUC	W 111-73	-18.5	W +19.5	165.5	O 184
Dec 17	vsLONG	W 71-68	-24.5	L −21.5	163.5	U 139
Dec 21	vsVAN	L 67-98	+5.5	L −25.5	164.5	O 165
Dec 31	@NCSU	L 57-70	+10.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 127
Jan 3	vsVT	W 81-78	-5.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 7	vsMIA	L 77-81	-1.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 158
Jan 10	@UNC	L 84-87	+10.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 171
Jan 17	@FSU	W 69-68	-1.5	L −0.5	168.5	U 137
Jan 20	vsSMU	L 79-91	-1.5	L −13.5	157.5	O 170
Jan 24	@DUKE	L 69-90	+19.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 27	@PITT	L 76-80	+1.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 156
Jan 31	vsNCSU	L 78-96	+5.5	L −12.5	156.5	O 174
Feb 7	vsLOU	L 80-88	+9.5	W +1.5	162.5	O 168
Feb 11	@GT	W 83-67	-3.5	W +12.5	158.5	U 150
Feb 14	vsSTAN	W 68-63	-4.5	W +0.5	150.5	U 131
Feb 18	vsCLEM	W 85-77	+4.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 162
Feb 21	@VT	L 63-82	+3.5	L −15.5	150.5	U 145
Feb 25	@BC	L 67-68	-3.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsSYR	W 88-83	-3.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 171
Mar 3	@UVA	L 70-75	+14.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 145
Mar 7	vsCAL	W 80-73	-5.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 153
Mar 10	vsVT	W 95-89	-1.5	W +4.5	150.5	O 184
Mar 11	vsCLEM	L 62-71	+5.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 133
Mar 18	vsNAVY	W 82-72	-9.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 154
Mar 22	vsILST	L 75-78	-8.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

−5.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+14.5

UML

W 109-75

+3.5

TTU

L 83-84

+8.5

MEM

W 69-68

−1.5

CAM

W 99-51

+30.5

W 86-73

−4.5

L 68-86

−22.5

WVU

W 75-66

+11.5

QUC

W 111-73

+19.5

LONG

W 71-68

−21.5

VAN

L 67-98

−25.5

NCSU

L 57-70

−2.5

W 81-78

−2.5

MIA

L 77-81

−5.5

UNC

L 84-87

+7.5

FSU

W 69-68

−0.5

SMU

L 79-91

−13.5

DUKE

L 69-90

−1.5

PITT

L 76-80

−2.5

NCSU

L 78-96

−12.5

LOU

L 80-88

+1.5

W 83-67

+12.5

STAN

W 68-63

+0.5

CLEM

W 85-77

+12.5

L 63-82

−15.5

L 67-68

−4.5

SYR

W 88-83

+1.5

UVA

L 70-75

+9.5

CAL

W 80-73

+1.5

W 95-89

+4.5

CLEM

L 62-71

−3.5

NAVY

W 82-72

+0.5

ILST

L 75-78

−11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 19avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

+22.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+0.5

UML

W 109-75

+18.5

TTU

L 83-84

+6.5

MEM

W 69-68

−23.5

CAM

W 99-51

−9.5

W 86-73

+4.5

L 68-86

−5.5

WVU

W 75-66

−2.5

QUC

W 111-73

+18.5

LONG

W 71-68

−24.5

VAN

L 67-98

+0.5

NCSU

L 57-70

−32.5

W 81-78

+5.5

MIA

L 77-81

+0.5

UNC

L 84-87

+16.5

FSU

W 69-68

−31.5

SMU

L 79-91

+12.5

DUKE

L 69-90

+5.5

PITT

L 76-80

+5.5

NCSU

L 78-96

+17.5

LOU

L 80-88

+5.5

W 83-67

−8.5

STAN

W 68-63

−19.5

CLEM

W 85-77

+21.5

L 63-82

−5.5

L 67-68

−10.5

SYR

W 88-83

+18.5

UVA

L 70-75

−5.5

CAL

W 80-73

−1.5

W 95-89

+33.5

CLEM

L 62-71

−10.5

NAVY

W 82-72

+5.5

ILST

L 75-78

+0.5

over 20under 15avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Vanderbilt

36 games played

Straight up

27-9

75% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-19

47% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-975%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L L W W W L W W L L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

W W W L L L W W W L L W W W W L L L L W W L L W W L L W L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1947%

O O U O O U O O U U U O O U O U U O U U U U O U U O U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIP	W 105-61	-26.5	W +17.5	154.5	O 166
Nov 8	@UCF	W 105-93	-10.5	W +1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 12	vsEKU	W 92-62	-28.5	W +1.5	168.5	U 154
Nov 15	vsUAPB	W 104-75	-41.5	L −12.5	172.5	O 179
Nov 20	vsTXSO	W 109-74	-36.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 183
Nov 26	vsWKU	W 83-78	-18.5	L −13.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 27	vsVCU	W 89-74	-6.5	W +8.5	161.5	O 163
Nov 28	vsSMC	W 96-71	-4.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 3	vsSMU	W 88-69	-10.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 157
Dec 13	vsCARK	W 83-72	-36.5	L −25.5	158.5	U 155
Dec 17	@MEM	W 77-70	-9.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 147
Dec 21	@WAKE	W 98-67	-5.5	W +25.5	164.5	O 165
Dec 29	vsNHVN	W 96-53	-39.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 3	@SC	W 83-71	-9.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 154
Jan 7	vsALA	W 96-90	-3.5	W +2.5	176.5	O 186
Jan 10	vsLSU	W 84-73	-13.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 157
Jan 14	@TEX	L 64-80	-3.5	L −19.5	163.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsFLA	L 94-98	+1.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 192
Jan 20	@ARK	L 68-93	+1.5	L −23.5	173.5	U 161
Jan 24	@MSST	W 88-56	-7.5	W +24.5	159.5	U 144
Jan 27	vsUK	W 80-55	-5.5	W +19.5	155.5	U 135
Jan 31	vsMISS	W 71-68	-10.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsOU	L 91-92	-11.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 183
Feb 10	@AUB	W 84-76	+3.5	W +11.5	161.5	U 160
Feb 14	vsTA&M	W 82-69	-7.5	W +5.5	165.5	U 151
Feb 18	@MIZ	L 80-81	-3.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 21	vsTENN	L 65-69	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 25	vsUGA	W 88-80	-7.5	W +0.5	163.5	O 168
Feb 28	@UK	L 77-91	+1.5	L −12.5	157.5	O 168
Mar 3	@MISS	W 89-86	-7.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 175
Mar 7	@TENN	W 86-82	+2.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 168
Mar 13	vsTENN	W 75-68	+1.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 14	vsFLA	W 91-74	+7.5	W +24.5	161.5	O 165
Mar 15	vsARK	L 75-86	-2.5	L −13.5	165.5	U 161
Mar 19	vsMCN	W 78-68	-12.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 146
Mar 21	vsNEB	L 72-74	-1.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIP

W 105-61

+17.5

UCF

W 105-93

+1.5

EKU

W 92-62

+1.5

UAPB

W 104-75

−12.5

TXSO

W 109-74

−1.5

WKU

W 83-78

−13.5

VCU

W 89-74

+8.5

SMC

W 96-71

+20.5

SMU

W 88-69

+8.5

CARK

W 83-72

−25.5

MEM

W 77-70

−2.5

WAKE

W 98-67

+25.5

NHVN

W 96-53

+3.5

W 83-71

+2.5

ALA

W 96-90

+2.5

LSU

W 84-73

−2.5

TEX

L 64-80

−19.5

FLA

L 94-98

−2.5

ARK

L 68-93

−23.5

MSST

W 88-56

+24.5

W 80-55

+19.5

MISS

W 71-68

−7.5

L 91-92

−12.5

AUB

W 84-76

+11.5

TA&M

W 82-69

+5.5

MIZ

L 80-81

−4.5

TENN

L 65-69

−6.5

UGA

W 88-80

+0.5

L 77-91

−12.5

MISS

W 89-86

−4.5

TENN

W 86-82

+6.5

TENN

W 75-68

+8.5

FLA

W 91-74

+24.5

ARK

L 75-86

−13.5

MCN

W 78-68

−2.5

NEB

L 72-74

−3.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIP

W 105-61

+11.5

UCF

W 105-93

+31.5

EKU

W 92-62

−14.5

UAPB

W 104-75

+6.5

TXSO

W 109-74

+18.5

WKU

W 83-78

−7.5

VCU

W 89-74

+1.5

SMC

W 96-71

+17.5

SMU

W 88-69

−8.5

CARK

W 83-72

−3.5

MEM

W 77-70

−12.5

WAKE

W 98-67

+0.5

NHVN

W 96-53

+3.5

W 83-71

−1.5

ALA

W 96-90

+9.5

LSU

W 84-73

−2.5

TEX

L 64-80

−19.5

FLA

L 94-98

+27.5

ARK

L 68-93

−12.5

MSST

W 88-56

−15.5

W 80-55

−20.5

MISS

W 71-68

−10.5

L 91-92

+23.5

AUB

W 84-76

−1.5

TA&M

W 82-69

−14.5

MIZ

L 80-81

+6.5

TENN

L 65-69

−16.5

UGA

W 88-80

+4.5

L 77-91

+10.5

MISS

W 89-86

+19.5

TENN

W 86-82

+21.5

TENN

W 75-68

−4.5

FLA

W 91-74

+3.5

ARK

L 75-86

−4.5

MCN

W 78-68

−2.5

NEB

L 72-74

−0.5

over 17under 19avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Vanderbilt has the better starters

Position by position: Wake Forest 0, Vanderbilt 3, even 2

Wake ForestBetterVanderbilt

G K. Kennedy TR18.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 4.2 ast Score 91

Even

G T. Tanner19.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.1 ast Score 100

G J. Ray TR11.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 56

VANSmall

G A. Glass TR16.1 pts · 3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 86

G J. McDowell TR3.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 40

VANSmall

F S. Williams-Adams TR7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55

F R. Nyeri TR8.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 34

VANBig

F B. Dak TR11.5 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 90

F X. Pintelon TR5.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 47

Even

C B. Buyuktuncel TR6.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 61

Wake ForestBetterVanderbilt

WAKE offense80th of 366 · +0.5

Even

VAN defense29th of 366 · +3.7

WAKE defense96th of 366 · -0.5

VANSmall

VAN offense22nd of 366 · +7.6

Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players

VANBig

Backcourt+10.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players

VANBig

Frontcourt+3.7 · 3 players

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-0.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestWAKE betterVAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wake Forest

Guards

K. Kennedy37 min · TRJ. Ray29 min · TRJ. McDowell17 min · TRI. Carr13 minA. Beard2 minW. Underwood2 min

Forwards

R. Nyeri26 min · TRX. Pintelon18 min · TRV. Ricchiuti2 minJ. AbsonNewV. ChaudhriNewG. PlacideNew

Centers

A. Dorn9 min · TR

Vanderbilt

Guards

T. Tanner34 minA. Glass29 min · TRA. BrownNewM. HawkinsNewB. AllenNewC. ByingtonNew

Forwards

S. Williams-Adams27 min · TRB. Dak26 min · TRT. Barrett23 min · TRC. Bing15 minE. MgbakoNewG. NesmithNew

Centers

B. Buyuktuncel24 min · TRJ. Leverett4 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WAKE78.8 #83

VAN85.7 #14

Points per possession

WAKE1.12 #94

VAN1.21 #9

Pace (possessions)

WAKE70.2 #112

VAN70.9 #80

Shooting

Effective FG%

WAKE52.7 #117

VAN55.3 #31

3-point %

WAKE34.1 #166

VAN35.6 #86

3-point attempt rate

WAKE43.6 #99

VAN44.2 #85

Free throw rate

WAKE35.2 #170

VAN38.1 #101

Possessions

Turnover rate

WAKE15.5 #107

VAN13.5 #15

Offensive rebound rate

WAKE30.1 #196

VAN31.2 #158

Assists per game

WAKE14.4 #123

VAN16.3 #40

Defense

Points allowed

WAKE76.9 #239

VAN75.0 #187

Points allowed per possession

WAKE1.10 #214

VAN1.06 #99

Opponent effective FG%

WAKE51.8 #202

VAN49.0 #67

Opponent 3-point %

WAKE32.9 #117

VAN32.6 #96

Turnovers forced

WAKE17.7 #114

VAN17.7 #112

Defensive rebound rate

WAKE67.0 #298

VAN68.5 #231

Steals per game

WAKE7.7 #59

VAN7.9 #40

Blocks per game

WAKE3.5 #136

VAN4.5 #36

WAKE		VAN
Scoring
78.8 #83	Points per game	85.7 #14
1.12 #94	Points per possession	1.21 #9
70.2 #112	Pace (possessions)	70.9 #80
Shooting
52.7 #117	Effective FG%	55.3 #31
34.1 #166	3-point %	35.6 #86
43.6 #99	3-point attempt rate	44.2 #85
35.2 #170	Free throw rate	38.1 #101
Possessions
15.5 #107	Turnover rate	13.5 #15
30.1 #196	Offensive rebound rate	31.2 #158
14.4 #123	Assists per game	16.3 #40
Defense
76.9 #239	Points allowed	75.0 #187
1.10 #214	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #99
51.8 #202	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #67
32.9 #117	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #96
17.7 #114	Turnovers forced	17.7 #112
67.0 #298	Defensive rebound rate	68.5 #231
7.7 #59	Steals per game	7.9 #40
3.5 #136	Blocks per game	4.5 #36

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wake Forest

18-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois St75–78
Wvs Navy82–72
Lvs Clemson62–71
Wvs Virginia Tech95–89
Wvs California80–73

A week or more of rest.

Vanderbilt

27-9 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Nebraska72–74
Wvs McNeese78–68
Lvs Arkansas75–86
Wvs Florida91–74
Wvs Tennessee75–68

A week or more of rest.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Vanderbilt Commodores

What could decide it: VAN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wake Forest

Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wake Forest

Vanderbilt