1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 5
  3. CHST @ UIW
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 5

Chicago State Cougars at Incarnate Word Cardinals

McDermott Center · at Incarnate Word
#362CHSTChicago St
@
#289UIWIncarnate Word
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CHSTThis seasonUIW
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UIW 77–66 · win probability UIW 83%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 142.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UIW has more of the edges

CHST 1, UIW 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CHSTBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CHST 15.7%, UIW 17.1%. Forced: CHST 20.1%, UIW 15.8%
UIWBig
Three-pointers
CHST hits 32.1% and allows 35.6%; UIW hits 36.1% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 30.9% and 39.1% of their shots
UIWSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CHST 28.3%, UIW 32.1%. Defensive: CHST 65.0%, UIW 68.0%
UIWSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CHST 45.3 and allows 56.7; UIW 50.2 and allows 54.5
UIWSmall
CHST offense vs UIW defense
Offense 361st of 366 against a defense 280th, on the model’s ratings
UIWSmall
Home court
UIW at home. This season: UIW 0-0 at home, CHST 0-0 away
UIWSmall
UIW offense vs CHST defense
Offense 291st of 366 against a defense 339th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CHST has played the 259th-hardest schedule, UIW the 285th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: CHST 30.0, UIW 34.0. Allowed: CHST 38.0, UIW 41.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CHST 8%, UIW 17%. Transfers in: CHST 6, UIW 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: CHST plays 66.0 a game (314th fastest), UIW 65.4 (335th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UIW -10.8—
Total—142.8—
Projected score—CHST 66 · UIW 76.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUIW -6.3—
1H total66.8—
1H projected scoreCHST 30.3 · UIW 36.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Incarnate Word has the better starters

Position by position: Chicago St 0, Incarnate Word 3, even 2
Chicago StBetterIncarnate Word
G M. Price TR6.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 3
UIWSmall
G I. Habib14.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.7 ast Score 36
G A. Carraway TR4.9 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3
UIWSmall
G M. Conner TR7.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 19
G M. Olafioye TR3.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 2
UIWBig
G B. McCreesh TR7.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 40
F B. Akanmu TR5.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 14
No call
F D. Goodwin TR4.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
F D. Loury TR4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 1
No call
F G. Erheriene TR0.8 pts · 0.7 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
Chicago StBetterIncarnate Word
CHST offense361st of 366 · -14.2
UIWSmall
UIW defense280th of 366 · -7.0
CHST defense339th of 366 · -9.0
Even
UIW offense291st of 366 · -9.0
Backcourt-7.9 · 3 players
UIWSmall
Backcourt-5.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-4.6 · 2 players
UIWBig
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
Bench-2.7 · 2 players
UIWSmall
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestCHST betterUIW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Chicago St
Guards
M. Price18 min · TRA. Carraway16 min · TRM. Olafioye16 min · TRM. Robinson15 minJ. Pazon11 min · TRW. Lovings-WattsNew
Forwards
B. Akanmu21 min · TRD. Loury17 min · TRK. FomanNewL. Stephane DjiyaNewF. SheriffNewL. HodgesNew
Centers
B. KalonjiNew
Incarnate Word
Guards
I. Habib33 minM. Conner30 min · TRB. McCreesh28 min · TRD. Barbee2 minJ. ThomasNewD. CasonNew
Forwards
D. Goodwin14 min · TRG. Erheriene5 min · TRK. Spencer2 min · TRD. EmetuNewK. IoaneNewT. CollinsNew
Centers
C. PareNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CHSTUIW
Scoring
65.2 #348Points per game70.4 #275
0.99 #337Points per possession1.07 #206
66.0 #314Pace (possessions)65.4 #335
Shooting
45.3 #358Effective FG%50.2 #228
32.1 #2753-point %36.1 #54
30.9 #3413-point attempt rate39.1 #190
30.0 #311Free throw rate34.0 #210
Possessions
15.7 #114Turnover rate17.1 #206
28.3 #255Offensive rebound rate32.1 #120
11.7 #305Assists per game10.8 #342
Defense
76.5 #231Points allowed75.0 #189
1.16 #332Points allowed per possession1.15 #331
56.7 #354Opponent effective FG%54.5 #314
35.6 #290Opponent 3-point %34.4 #214
20.1 #21Turnovers forced15.8 #233
65.0 #339Defensive rebound rate68.0 #260
8.2 #33Steals per game5.1 #329
1.3 #365Blocks per game2.4 #310
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Chicago St

6-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island75–79
  • L@ Wagner61–80
  • L@ Long Island56–73
  • Wvs C Connecticut70–51
  • Lvs FDU59–60

A week or more of rest.

Incarnate Word

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs SF Austin68–76
  • Wvs Lamar72–60
  • L@ N'Western St49–54
  • W@ East Texas A&M82–73
  • Lvs LSU N Orleans64–78

A week or more of rest.