1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. UIW @ UCD
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

Incarnate Word Cardinals at UC Davis Aggies

University Credit Union Center · at UC Davis
#289UIWIncarnate Word
@
#182UCDUC Davis
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UIWThis seasonUCD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCD 78–68 · win probability UCD 79%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 146.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCD has more of the edges

UIW 1, UCD 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UIW plays 65.4 a game (335th fastest), UCD 71.8 (39th). Faster games mean more points
UCDBig
UIW offense vs UCD defense
Offense 291st of 366 against a defense 171st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UIW has played the 285th-hardest schedule, UCD the 189th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCDSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UIW 50.2 and allows 54.5; UCD 51.8 and allows 51.7
UCDSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UIW 34.0, UCD 40.5. Allowed: UIW 41.6, UCD 39.1
UCDSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UIW 17%, UCD 57%. Transfers in: UIW 5, UCD 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UCDSmall
UCD offense vs UIW defense
Offense 208th of 366 against a defense 280th, on the model’s ratings
UCDSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UIW 17.1%, UCD 17.9%. Forced: UIW 15.8%, UCD 19.8%
UIWSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UIW 32.1%, UCD 25.2%. Defensive: UIW 68.0%, UCD 69.5%
UCDSmall
Home court
UCD at home. This season: UCD 0-0 at home, UIW 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
UIW hits 36.1% and allows 34.4%; UCD hits 34.4% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 39.1% and 43.5% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCD -9.4—
Total—146.1—
Projected score—UIW 68.3 · UCD 77.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCD -5.5—
1H total68.3—
1H projected scoreUIW 31.4 · UCD 36.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UC Davis has the better starters

Position by position: Incarnate Word 0, UC Davis 1, even 4
Incarnate WordBetterUC Davis
G I. Habib14.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.7 ast Score 36
Even
G C. Sevilla13.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 45
G M. Conner TR7.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 19
UCDSmall
G B. Fagbemi6.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4.3 ast Score 53
G B. McCreesh TR7.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 40
Even
F I. Chappell8.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26
F D. Goodwin TR4.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F V. Abosi TR4.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 43
F G. Erheriene TR0.8 pts · 0.7 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F O. Suljanovic5.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 12
Incarnate WordBetterUC Davis
UIW offense291st of 366 · -9.0
UCDSmall
UCD defense171st of 366 · -3.9
UIW defense280th of 366 · -7.0
UCDSmall
UCD offense208th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-5.7 · 3 players
UCDBig
Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
UIWSmall
Frontcourt-3.5 · 3 players
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
UIWSmall
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUIW betterUCD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Incarnate Word
Guards
I. Habib33 minM. Conner30 min · TRB. McCreesh28 min · TRD. Barbee2 minJ. ThomasNewD. CasonNew
Forwards
D. Goodwin14 min · TRG. Erheriene5 min · TRK. Spencer2 min · TRD. EmetuNewK. IoaneNewT. CollinsNew
Centers
C. PareNew
UC Davis
Guards
C. Sevilla32 minB. Fagbemi26 minJ. Stokes14 minC. Rawlins4 minC. Massamba4 min · TRY. Esso-EssisNew
Forwards
I. Chappell24 minV. Abosi17 min · TRO. Suljanovic14 minJ. Margrave10 min · TRN. NobleNewJ. DabrowskiNew
Centers
A. Szymczyk7 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UIWUCD
Scoring
70.4 #275Points per game76.1 #139
1.07 #206Points per possession1.06 #234
65.4 #335Pace (possessions)71.8 #39
Shooting
50.2 #228Effective FG%51.8 #157
36.1 #543-point %34.4 #149
39.1 #1903-point attempt rate43.5 #102
34.0 #210Free throw rate40.5 #53
Possessions
17.1 #206Turnover rate17.9 #267
32.1 #120Offensive rebound rate25.2 #334
10.8 #342Assists per game15.1 #83
Defense
75.0 #189Points allowed76.0 #217
1.15 #331Points allowed per possession1.06 #104
54.5 #314Opponent effective FG%51.7 #197
34.4 #214Opponent 3-point %33.8 #172
15.8 #233Turnovers forced19.8 #29
68.0 #260Defensive rebound rate69.5 #182
5.1 #329Steals per game7.5 #81
2.4 #310Blocks per game2.7 #276
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Incarnate Word

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs SF Austin68–76
  • Wvs Lamar72–60
  • L@ N'Western St49–54
  • W@ East Texas A&M82–73
  • Lvs LSU N Orleans64–78

A week or more of rest.

UC Davis

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Fullerton70–82
  • Wvs Santa Barbara79–73
  • L@ UC Irvine69–79
  • W@ Long Beach St76–70
  • Lvs Hawai'i73–77

A week or more of rest.