1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. JOES vs USF
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

Saint Joseph's Hawks vs South Florida Bulls

Alumni Hall (Navy) · Neutral site
#114JOESSaint Joseph's
vs
#84USFSouth Florida
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
JOESThis seasonUSF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USF 79–73 · win probability USF 70%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: JOES has more of the edges

JOES 2, USF 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USFBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: JOES 16.8%, USF 15.1%. Forced: JOES 15.0%, USF 19.1%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: JOES plays 68.4 a game (208th fastest), USF 74.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points
JOESSmall
Three-pointers
JOES hits 30.8% and allows 31.7%; USF hits 32.5% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 45.1% and 43.8% of their shots
JOESSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: JOES 40%, USF 14%. Transfers in: JOES 2, USF 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: JOES 31.4%, USF 38.1%. Defensive: JOES 69.4%, USF 68.1%
Even
USF offense vs JOES defense
Offense 59th of 366 against a defense 91st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: JOES 49.2 and allows 47.6; USF 50.6 and allows 48.8
Context
Schedule so far
JOES has played the 102nd-hardest schedule, USF the 89th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
JOES offense vs USF defense
Offense 134th of 366 against a defense 121st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: JOES 29.7, USF 40.4. Allowed: JOES 26.9, USF 39.0
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USF -6.1—
Total—152.2—
Projected score—JOES 73 · USF 79.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSF -3.5—
1H total71.2—
1H projected scoreJOES 33.8 · USF 37.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

South Florida has the better starters

Position by position: Saint Joseph's 1, South Florida 2, even 2
Saint Joseph'sBetterSouth Florida
G J. Glover-Toscano15.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 80
Even
G S. Wilson TR17.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.5 ast Score 79
G A. Williford7.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 46
USFSmall
G A. Dancler TR15.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 72
G L. Carey TR9.1 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 60
USFSmall
G J. Omojafo11 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 80
G K. Myers4.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 59
Even
G A. Shoshkikj TR10.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 73
F S. Logan TR3.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 58
JOESSmall
F R. Goods TR7.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2 ast Score 41
Saint Joseph'sBetterSouth Florida
JOES offense134th of 366 · -3.9
Even
USF defense121st of 366 · -2.1
JOES defense91st of 366 · -0.3
Even
USF offense59th of 366 · +2.7
Backcourt+0.6 · 4 players
USFBig
Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.0 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestJOES betterUSF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Saint Joseph's
Guards
J. Glover-Toscano32 minA. Williford26 minL. Carey26 min · TRK. Myers15 minM. Johnson4 minB. Rayer1 min
Forwards
S. Logan16 min · TRW. Lange1 minG. MarrsNewL. NonfonNewD. FlamerNewK. SaccoNew
South Florida
Guards
S. Wilson37 min · TRA. Dancler34 min · TRJ. Omojafo28 minA. Shoshkikj26 min · TRC. Davis18 min · TRM. James11 min · TR
Forwards
R. Goods25 min · TRG. Johnson23 min · TRJ. Lewis23 min · TRZ. High9 min · TRR. StevensonNewJ. FeldhausNew
Centers
T. Diawara3 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
JOESUSF
Scoring
71.9 #245Points per game86.8 #6
1.05 #244Points per possession1.17 #42
68.4 #208Pace (possessions)74.4 #9
Shooting
49.2 #284Effective FG%50.6 #209
30.8 #3253-point %32.5 #255
45.1 #653-point attempt rate43.8 #93
29.7 #318Free throw rate40.4 #55
Possessions
16.8 #187Turnover rate15.1 #73
31.4 #147Offensive rebound rate38.1 #7
15.1 #84Assists per game16.8 #28
Defense
70.6 #68Points allowed76.5 #230
1.03 #59Points allowed per possession1.03 #54
47.6 #34Opponent effective FG%48.8 #58
31.7 #51Opponent 3-point %34.5 #218
15.0 #286Turnovers forced19.1 #42
69.4 #185Defensive rebound rate68.1 #252
5.5 #290Steals per game9.0 #8
4.6 #30Blocks per game4.0 #72
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Saint Joseph's

22-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ New Mexico69–84
  • W@ California76–75
  • W@ Colorado St69–64
  • Lvs VCU64–77
  • Wvs Davidson70–58

A week or more of rest.

South Florida

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisville79–83
  • Wvs Wichita St70–55
  • Wvs Charlotte86–64
  • Wvs Charlotte83–60
  • W@ Memphis96–89

A week or more of rest.