South Carolina State Bulldogs at Chicago State Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 12:00 AM ETJones Convocation Center · at Chicago St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SC State and Chicago St
SCST	This season	CHST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHST 73–70 · win probability CHST 61%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SCST has more of the edges

SCST 3, CHST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CHSTBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SCST 20.8%, CHST 15.7%. Forced: SCST 18.8%, CHST 20.1%

SCSTBig

Three-pointers

SCST hits 34.0% and allows 33.5%; CHST hits 32.1% and allows 35.6%. Threes are 33.3% and 30.9% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: SCST plays 70.3 a game (102nd fastest), CHST 66.0 (314th). Faster games mean more points

SCSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SCST 41.0, CHST 30.0. Allowed: SCST 51.9, CHST 38.0

Context

Schedule so far

SCST has played the 317th-hardest schedule, CHST the 259th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHSTSmall

Home court

CHST at home. This season: CHST 0-0 at home, SCST 0-0 away

SCSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SCST 34%, CHST 8%. Transfers in: SCST 1, CHST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SCST 31.4%, CHST 28.3%. Defensive: SCST 62.4%, CHST 65.0%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SCST 46.8 and allows 53.9; CHST 45.3 and allows 56.7

Even

CHST offense vs SCST defense

Offense 361st of 366 against a defense 351st, on the model’s ratings

Even

SCST offense vs CHST defense

Offense 341st of 366 against a defense 339th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CHST -3.3	—
Total	—	142.6	—
Projected score	—	SCST 69.7 · CHST 73

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CHST -1.8	—
1H total	66.7	—
1H projected score	SCST 32.5 · CHST 34.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SCST LWWWL	13-17	43%	7-12	—
CHST WWLLW	15-16	48%	6-4	—

Venue/role: SCST away; CHST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SCST UUOOU	15-15	50%	8-22
CHST UUUOO	15-16	48%	6-25

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SCST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
CHST	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ ND	No recent meeting
Nov 15	@ COFC	L61–88LU
Nov 20	@ CIT	W74–57WU

Chicago St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ CBU	L62–74LO
Nov 13	@ USD	No recent meeting
Nov 15	@ LMU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SCST 1–0 CHSTSCST leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SCST 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 10, 2023-24	CHST 55 @ SCST 78	SCST +1.5	SCST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC State

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U U U U U O O O U U O O O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 14	@COFC	L 61-88	+18.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUTC	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 23	@SDAK	L 81-82	+15.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 25	@MIZ	L 66-98	+34.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 164
Nov 29	@WIN	L 79-101	+20.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 5	@BCU	L 59-80	+13.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 8	@CHSO	L 44-84	+12.5	L −27.5	156.5	U 128
Dec 12	@QUC	L 78-102	+18.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 16	vsUPST	L 72-78	+10.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@SC	L 70-95	+31.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	@TENN	L 54-105	+44.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsHOW	W 58-57	+8.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 115
Jan 10	@MORG	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	@COPP	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsNORF	L 82-89	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 26	vsDSU	W 70-64	-1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 134
Feb 4	vsUMES	W 63-54	+3.5	W +12.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 7	@HOW	L 57-85	+14.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 16	vsCOPP	L 57-59	-4.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 18	vsNCCU	W 85-72	+2.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NORF	L 71-90	+10.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 25	vsMORG	L 83-90	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 173
Feb 28	@UMES	L 57-69	+5.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 126
Mar 2	@DSU	W 61-59	+3.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NCCU	W 80-64	+7.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 12	vsNORF	W 88-82	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsHOW	L 61-78	+15.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

COFC

L 61-88

−8.5

UTC

L 66-78

−0.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+14.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+2.5

WIN

L 79-101

−1.5

BCU

L 59-80

−7.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−27.5

QUC

L 78-102

−5.5

UPST

L 72-78

+4.5

L 70-95

+6.5

TENN

L 54-105

−6.5

HOW

W 58-57

+9.5

MORG

L 67-72

−0.5

COPP

W 74-72

+3.5

NORF

L 82-89

−1.5

DSU

W 70-64

+4.5

UMES

W 63-54

+12.5

HOW

L 57-85

−13.5

COPP

L 57-59

−6.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+15.5

NORF

L 71-90

−8.5

MORG

L 83-90

−5.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

+5.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+23.5

NORF

W 88-82

+13.5

HOW

L 61-78

−1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

COFC

L 61-88

−7.5

UTC

L 66-78

−10.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+2.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+3.5

WIN

L 79-101

+22.5

BCU

L 59-80

−9.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−28.5

QUC

L 78-102

+22.5

UPST

L 72-78

+2.5

L 70-95

+15.5

TENN

L 54-105

+11.5

HOW

W 58-57

−29.5

MORG

L 67-72

−8.5

COPP

W 74-72

+5.5

NORF

L 82-89

+31.5

DSU

W 70-64

−1.5

UMES

W 63-54

−16.5

HOW

L 57-85

+0.5

COPP

L 57-59

−22.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+20.5

NORF

L 71-90

+20.5

MORG

L 83-90

+19.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

−14.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+3.5

NORF

W 88-82

+25.5

HOW

L 61-78

−6.5

over 15under 15avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Chicago St

31 games played

Straight up

6-25

19% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-2519%

L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L W L W W W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L W L W W L L L L W W W L L L W L L L W W L W W W L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1648%

O O O U U O O O O O U U O U U O U U U U O O U O U U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DEP	L 62-92	+24.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 6	@SLU	L 86-108	+30.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 194
Nov 11	@BTLR	L 66-98	+26.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 15	vsUIC	L 63-67	+9.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MINN	L 54-66	+27.5	W +15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 20	@IOWA	L 54-93	+31.5	L −7.5	142.5	O 147
Nov 25	@PFW	L 77-90	+12.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 167
Nov 28	@YSU	L 64-87	+14.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 6	@ILST	L 53-95	+20.5	L −21.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 14	@LUC	W 84-75	+15.5	W +24.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 16	@BGSU	L 55-76	+21.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 131
Dec 20	@IU	L 58-78	+38.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 2	vsWAG	L 72-79	+1.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 4	vsLIU	L 55-74	+7.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 8	@FDU	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 133
Jan 10	@STO	L 82-85	+4.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 167
Jan 17	vsLEM	L 57-72	+6.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 129
Jan 19	vsNHVN	L 56-62	-1.5	L −7.5	129.5	U 118
Jan 23	@SFPA	L 60-81	+3.5	L −17.5	143.5	U 141
Jan 25	@MERC	L 59-61	+9.5	W +7.5	131.5	U 120
Jan 31	vsMERC	W 78-74	+2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 152
Feb 5	@CCSU	L 67-78	+8.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 145
Feb 7	@NHVN	W 63-57	+5.5	W +11.5	127.5	U 120
Feb 9	vsSFPA	W 80-75	-3.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 155
Feb 12	vsSTO	W 68-55	+2.5	W +15.5	131.5	U 123
Feb 14	@LEM	L 63-81	+6.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 144
Feb 19	vsFDU	L 59-60	+1.5	W +0.5	131.5	U 119
Feb 21	vsCCSU	W 70-51	+3.5	W +22.5	138.5	U 121
Feb 26	@LIU	L 56-73	+11.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 129
Feb 28	@WAG	L 61-80	+4.5	L −14.5	134.5	O 141
Mar 4	@LIU	L 75-79	+10.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

−5.5

SLU

L 86-108

+8.5

BTLR

L 66-98

−5.5

UIC

L 63-67

+5.5

MINN

L 54-66

+15.5

IOWA

L 54-93

−7.5

PFW

L 77-90

−0.5

YSU

L 64-87

−8.5

ILST

L 53-95

−21.5

LUC

W 84-75

+24.5

BGSU

L 55-76

+0.5

L 58-78

+18.5

WAG

L 72-79

−5.5

LIU

L 55-74

−11.5

FDU

L 63-70

−2.5

STO

L 82-85

+1.5

LEM

L 57-72

−8.5

NHVN

L 56-62

−7.5

SFPA

L 60-81

−17.5

MERC

L 59-61

+7.5

MERC

W 78-74

+6.5

CCSU

L 67-78

−2.5

NHVN

W 63-57

+11.5

SFPA

W 80-75

+1.5

STO

W 68-55

+15.5

LEM

L 63-81

−11.5

FDU

L 59-60

+0.5

CCSU

W 70-51

+22.5

LIU

L 56-73

−5.5

WAG

L 61-80

−14.5

LIU

L 75-79

+6.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

+10.5

SLU

L 86-108

+38.5

BTLR

L 66-98

+5.5

UIC

L 63-67

−26.5

MINN

L 54-66

−24.5

IOWA

L 54-93

+4.5

PFW

L 77-90

+17.5

YSU

L 64-87

+4.5

ILST

L 53-95

+3.5

LUC

W 84-75

+18.5

BGSU

L 55-76

−17.5

L 58-78

−16.5

WAG

L 72-79

+4.5

LIU

L 55-74

−22.5

FDU

L 63-70

−10.5

STO

L 82-85

+31.5

LEM

L 57-72

−17.5

NHVN

L 56-62

−11.5

SFPA

L 60-81

−2.5

MERC

L 59-61

−11.5

MERC

W 78-74

+22.5

CCSU

L 67-78

+6.5

NHVN

W 63-57

−7.5

SFPA

W 80-75

+10.5

STO

W 68-55

−8.5

LEM

L 63-81

−0.5

FDU

L 59-60

−12.5

CCSU

W 70-51

−17.5

LIU

L 56-73

−12.5

WAG

L 61-80

+6.5

LIU

L 75-79

+16.5

over 15under 16avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SC State has the better starters

Position by position: SC State 3, Chicago St 0, even 2

SC StateBetterChicago St

G D. Jackson TR6.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 24

SCSTSmall

G M. Price TR6.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 3

G N. Treadwell9.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 25

SCSTSmall

G A. Carraway TR4.9 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3

F D. Hodge2.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 1

Even

G M. Olafioye TR3.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 2

F C. Parker6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53

SCSTBig

F B. Akanmu TR5.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 14

F T. Tindal2.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 12

Even

F D. Loury TR4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 1

SC StateBetterChicago St

SCST offense341st of 366 · -11.6

Even

CHST defense339th of 366 · -9.0

SCST defense351st of 366 · -9.8

Even

CHST offense361st of 366 · -14.2

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

SCSTBig

Backcourt-7.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-4.6 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-2.7 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestSCST betterCHST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SC State

Guards

D. Jackson23 min · TRN. Treadwell23 minB. JacksonNewM. TaylorNewB. HarrisNewC. BarnesNew

Forwards

D. Hodge18 minC. Parker18 minT. Tindal10 minJ. PrettyNewB. AdamsNewA. NGomabieNew

Chicago St

Guards

M. Price18 min · TRA. Carraway16 min · TRM. Olafioye16 min · TRM. Robinson15 minJ. Pazon11 min · TRW. Lovings-WattsNew

Forwards

B. Akanmu21 min · TRD. Loury17 min · TRK. FomanNewL. Stephane DjiyaNewF. SheriffNewL. HodgesNew

Centers

B. KalonjiNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SCST67.4 #325

CHST65.2 #348

Points per possession

SCST0.96 #353

CHST0.99 #337

Pace (possessions)

SCST70.3 #102

CHST66.0 #314

Shooting

Effective FG%

SCST46.8 #341

CHST45.3 #358

3-point %

SCST34.0 #173

CHST32.1 #275

3-point attempt rate

SCST33.3 #312

CHST30.9 #341

Free throw rate

SCST41.0 #47

CHST30.0 #311

Possessions

Turnover rate

SCST20.8 #355

CHST15.7 #114

Offensive rebound rate

SCST31.4 #146

CHST28.3 #255

Assists per game

SCST12.1 #281

CHST11.7 #305

Defense

Points allowed

SCST80.6 #327

CHST76.5 #231

Points allowed per possession

SCST1.15 #318

CHST1.16 #332

Opponent effective FG%

SCST53.9 #296

CHST56.7 #354

Opponent 3-point %

SCST33.5 #155

CHST35.6 #290

Turnovers forced

SCST18.8 #59

CHST20.1 #21

Defensive rebound rate

SCST62.4 #362

CHST65.0 #339

Steals per game

SCST6.9 #137

CHST8.2 #33

Blocks per game

SCST3.8 #98

CHST1.3 #365

SCST		CHST
Scoring
67.4 #325	Points per game	65.2 #348
0.96 #353	Points per possession	0.99 #337
70.3 #102	Pace (possessions)	66.0 #314
Shooting
46.8 #341	Effective FG%	45.3 #358
34.0 #173	3-point %	32.1 #275
33.3 #312	3-point attempt rate	30.9 #341
41.0 #47	Free throw rate	30.0 #311
Possessions
20.8 #355	Turnover rate	15.7 #114
31.4 #146	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #255
12.1 #281	Assists per game	11.7 #305
Defense
80.6 #327	Points allowed	76.5 #231
1.15 #318	Points allowed per possession	1.16 #332
53.9 #296	Opponent effective FG%	56.7 #354
33.5 #155	Opponent 3-point %	35.6 #290
18.8 #59	Turnovers forced	20.1 #21
62.4 #362	Defensive rebound rate	65.0 #339
6.9 #137	Steals per game	8.2 #33
3.8 #98	Blocks per game	1.3 #365

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SC State

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-8 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard61–78
Wvs Norfolk St88–82
W@ NC Central80–64
W@ Delaware St61–59
L@ MD Eastern57–69

A week or more of rest.

Chicago St

6-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Long Island75–79
L@ Wagner61–80
L@ Long Island56–73
Wvs C Connecticut70–51
Lvs FDU59–60

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina State Bulldogs at Chicago State Cougars

What could decide it: SCST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SC State

Chicago St

SC State has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SC State

Chicago St