1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 9
  3. LIU @ TOW
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 9

Long Island University Sharks at Towson Tigers

SECU Arena · at Towson
#324LIULong Island
@
#165TOWTowson
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LIUThis seasonTOW
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOW 74–64 · win probability TOW 82%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 137.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOW has more of the edges

LIU 2, TOW 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TOWBig
LIU offense vs TOW defense
Offense 339th of 366 against a defense 113th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
LIU has played the 290th-hardest schedule, TOW the 140th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LIUBig
Three-pointers
LIU hits 35.8% and allows 32.2%; TOW hits 29.4% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 29.3% and 34.9% of their shots
TOWBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LIU 33.9%, TOW 36.0%. Defensive: LIU 67.0%, TOW 70.9%
LIUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: LIU 52.8 and allows 50.0; TOW 46.5 and allows 48.5
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: LIU plays 68.5 a game (206th fastest), TOW 64.0 (360th). Faster games mean more points
TOWSmall
Home court
TOW at home. This season: TOW 0-0 at home, LIU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LIU 6%, TOW 27%. Transfers in: LIU 6, TOW 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
TOW offense vs LIU defense
Offense 266th of 366 against a defense 283rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: LIU 34.0, TOW 30.4. Allowed: LIU 34.7, TOW 29.3
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LIU 19.0%, TOW 15.8%. Forced: LIU 18.7%, TOW 15.1%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TOW -10.6—
Total—137.7—
Projected score—LIU 63.6 · TOW 74.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTOW -6.2—
1H total64.5—
1H projected scoreLIU 29.2 · TOW 35.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Towson has the better starters

Position by position: Long Island 0, Towson 2, even 3
Long IslandBetterTowson
G J. Pickett TR5.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 2
TOWBig
G B. Roseborough TR11.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50
G K. Jones TR4.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 13
TOWBig
G J. Womack6.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 61
G D. Davis TR0.7 pts · 0.3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Ndefo2.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32
G D. Jean-Charles TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Embeya3.5 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37
F J. Johnson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33
Even
F D. Badalau TR3.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
Long IslandBetterTowson
LIU offense339th of 366 · -11.1
TOWBig
TOW defense113th of 366 · -1.4
LIU defense283rd of 366 · -7.1
Even
TOW offense266th of 366 · -8.1
Backcourt-6.7 · 4 players
TOWBig
Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Bench-1.6 · 3 players
TOWSmall
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestLIU betterTOW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Long Island
Guards
J. Pickett27 min · TRK. Jones11 min · TRD. Davis9 min · TRD. Jean-Charles9 min · TRM. Ndlovu-Fraser8 minV. AlletteNew
Forwards
J. Johnson15 min · TRJ. Howard7 min · TRX. Li4 minM. BewleyNewR. BewleyNewT. BowlesNew
Towson
Guards
B. Roseborough28 min · TRJ. Womack19 minC. Ndefo12 minZ. Stanford5 min · TRR. Skerry2 minC. DoerrNew
Forwards
C. Embeya21 minD. Badalau13 min · TRA. AtkinsonNewB. HolmesNewD. KirkNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LIUTOW
Scoring
73.6 #214Points per game67.1 #332
1.08 #185Points per possession1.05 #256
68.5 #206Pace (possessions)64.0 #360
Shooting
52.8 #112Effective FG%46.5 #345
35.8 #673-point %29.4 #349
29.3 #3543-point attempt rate34.9 #277
34.0 #207Free throw rate30.4 #299
Possessions
19.0 #320Turnover rate15.8 #128
33.9 #70Offensive rebound rate36.0 #24
13.7 #170Assists per game9.5 #364
Defense
71.7 #99Points allowed66.4 #18
1.04 #80Points allowed per possession1.04 #73
50.0 #102Opponent effective FG%48.5 #49
32.2 #72Opponent 3-point %30.9 #33
18.7 #61Turnovers forced15.1 #271
67.0 #299Defensive rebound rate70.9 #117
7.8 #56Steals per game5.8 #253
5.4 #9Blocks per game3.3 #175
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Long Island

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 18-3 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona58–92
  • Wvs Mercyhurst79–70
  • Wvs Wagner64–56
  • Wvs Chicago St79–75
  • Wvs FDU74–60

A week or more of rest.

Towson

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Hofstra65–68
  • Wvs Charleston81–56
  • Wvs Hampton74–68
  • W@ Stony Brook69–57
  • Wvs Campbell71–67

A week or more of rest.