Stonehill Skyhawks at Columbia Lions: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 12:00 AM ETLevien Gymnasium · at Columbia

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Stonehill and Columbia
STO	This season	COLU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COLU 77–63 · win probability COLU 88%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: COLU has more of the edges

STO 0, COLU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

STO has played the 352nd-hardest schedule, COLU the 169th. A record against a soft schedule means less

COLUBig

STO offense vs COLU defense

Offense 363rd of 366 against a defense 198th, on the model’s ratings

COLUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: STO 27.5%, COLU 36.0%. Defensive: STO 72.9%, COLU 72.8%

COLUSmall

Three-pointers

STO hits 31.7% and allows 33.4%; COLU hits 35.9% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 40.5% and 37.5% of their shots

COLUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: STO 46.9 and allows 47.8; COLU 53.5 and allows 51.2

COLUSmall

COLU offense vs STO defense

Offense 163rd of 366 against a defense 225th, on the model’s ratings

COLUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: STO 28%, COLU 61%. Transfers in: STO 6, COLU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

COLUSmall

Home court

COLU at home. This season: COLU 0-0 at home, STO 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: STO 19.4%, COLU 19.3%. Forced: STO 13.4%, COLU 15.1%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: STO 27.3, COLU 28.6. Allowed: STO 30.3, COLU 33.5

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: STO plays 67.6 a game (244th fastest), COLU 67.8 (237th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	COLU -13.7	—
Total	—	139.3	—
Projected score	—	STO 62.8 · COLU 76.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLU -8.0	—
1H total	65.2	—
1H projected score	STO 28.6 · COLU 36.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STO WWLWL	16-15	52%	11-8	—
COLU WLWWL	14-12	54%	7-5	—

Venue/role: STO away; COLU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
STO OOOOU	11-20	35%	10-21
COLU OUOUO	14-12	54%	14-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STO	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
COLU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Stonehill

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ TTU	No recent meeting
Nov 18	vs UNH	L58–59WU
Nov 21	vs NE	No recent meeting

Columbia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ BUCK	No recent meeting
Nov 16	@ NU	No recent meeting
Nov 21	@ BU	W54–49WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Stonehill

31 games played

Straight up

10-21

32% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-20

35% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2132%

L L L L L W L L L L L L W L W W L L W W W L L L L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1552%

W L W L W W L W L W L L W W L W L W W L W L W L L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-2035%

U U O U O O U U O U U U U O O U U U U U U O U U U U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@DEP	L 64-72	+22.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 11	@URI	L 57-80	+16.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 137
Nov 14	@FAIR	L 71-73	+6.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 144
Nov 15	vsL-MD	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 137
Nov 17	@ISU	L 57-96	+40.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 153
Nov 21	vsLAF	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 26	vsUML	L 64-75	-2.5	L −13.5	148.5	U 139
Nov 30	@QUIN	L 62-76	+15.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 138
Dec 2	@BRY	L 65-77	+6.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 142
Dec 17	@UNH	L 58-59	+3.5	W +2.5	138.5	U 117
Dec 22	@SYR	L 48-77	+22.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 125
Jan 2	vsNHVN	L 55-70	-1.5	L −16.5	128.5	U 125
Jan 4	@WAG	W 69-60	+7.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 129
Jan 8	@CCSU	L 69-76	+7.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 145
Jan 10	vsCHST	W 85-82	-4.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 167
Jan 17	@MERC	W 62-57	+4.5	W +9.5	128.5	U 119
Jan 19	@SFPA	L 61-63	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 124
Jan 23	vsLIU	L 63-66	+5.5	W +2.5	137.5	U 129
Jan 26	vsCCSU	W 61-59	+1.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsFDU	W 58-57	-2.5	L −1.5	131.5	U 115
Jan 31	@LEM	W 65-54	+2.5	W +13.5	140.5	U 119
Feb 5	@FDU	L 58-74	+1.5	L −14.5	130.5	O 132
Feb 7	@LIU	L 54-61	+10.5	W +3.5	132.5	U 115
Feb 12	@CHST	L 55-68	-2.5	L −15.5	131.5	U 123
Feb 14	vsWAG	L 57-68	-3.5	L −14.5	128.5	U 125
Feb 19	@NHVN	L 51-64	+2.5	L −10.5	121.5	U 115
Feb 21	vsLEM	W 77-68	+1.5	W +10.5	137.5	O 145
Feb 26	vsSFPA	W 103-77	-4.5	W +21.5	140.5	O 180
Feb 28	vsMERC	L 72-75	+1.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 147
Mar 4	@LEM	W 81-71	+4.5	W +14.5	140.5	O 152
Mar 7	@MERC	L 51-56	+4.5	L −0.5	134.5	U 107

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEP

L 64-72

+14.5

URI

L 57-80

−6.5

FAIR

L 71-73

+4.5

L-MD

L 63-74

−4.5

ISU

L 57-96

+1.5

LAF

W 74-70

+5.5

UML

L 64-75

−13.5

QUIN

L 62-76

+1.5

BRY

L 65-77

−5.5

UNH

L 58-59

+2.5

SYR

L 48-77

−6.5

NHVN

L 55-70

−16.5

WAG

W 69-60

+16.5

CCSU

L 69-76

+0.5

CHST

W 85-82

−1.5

MERC

W 62-57

+9.5

SFPA

L 61-63

−0.5

LIU

L 63-66

+2.5

CCSU

W 61-59

+3.5

FDU

W 58-57

−1.5

LEM

W 65-54

+13.5

FDU

L 58-74

−14.5

LIU

L 54-61

+3.5

CHST

L 55-68

−15.5

WAG

L 57-68

−14.5

NHVN

L 51-64

−10.5

LEM

W 77-68

+10.5

SFPA

W 103-77

+21.5

MERC

L 72-75

−1.5

LEM

W 81-71

+14.5

MERC

L 51-56

−0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEP

L 64-72

−11.5

URI

L 57-80

−14.5

FAIR

L 71-73

+0.5

L-MD

L 63-74

−1.5

ISU

L 57-96

+6.5

LAF

W 74-70

+2.5

UML

L 64-75

−9.5

QUIN

L 62-76

−10.5

BRY

L 65-77

+7.5

UNH

L 58-59

−21.5

SYR

L 48-77

−15.5

NHVN

L 55-70

−3.5

WAG

W 69-60

−10.5

CCSU

L 69-76

+10.5

CHST

W 85-82

+31.5

MERC

W 62-57

−9.5

SFPA

L 61-63

−17.5

LIU

L 63-66

−8.5

CCSU

W 61-59

−15.5

FDU

W 58-57

−16.5

LEM

W 65-54

−21.5

FDU

L 58-74

+1.5

LIU

L 54-61

−17.5

CHST

L 55-68

−8.5

WAG

L 57-68

−3.5

NHVN

L 51-64

−6.5

LEM

W 77-68

+7.5

SFPA

W 103-77

+39.5

MERC

L 72-75

+9.5

LEM

W 81-71

+11.5

MERC

L 51-56

−27.5

over 11under 20avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Columbia

26 games played

Straight up

14-12

54% wins

Against the spread

14-12

54% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-12

54% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1254%

W L W W W W W W W L L W W L L L W W L L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1254%

W W W W W W W L W L L L W L L L W W L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1254%

U U O U O O O U O O U O O U O O U U O U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@NHVN	W 71-53	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 124
Nov 10	@CONN	L 62-89	+32.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsUML	W 86-72	-13.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 18	vsBU	W 54-49	-4.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 21	@LEH	W 82-67	-2.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 149
Nov 23	vsLONG	W 95-70	-3.5	W +21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 26	@FAIR	W 106-77	-3.5	W +25.5	150.5	O 183
Dec 3	vsHOF	W 72-70	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 6	vsUALB	W 93-65	-13.5	W +14.5	144.5	O 158
Dec 9	@STBK	L 73-77	-4.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 21	@CAL	L 56-74	+8.5	L −9.5	153.5	U 130
Dec 28	@UNF	W 90-82	-11.5	L −3.5	162.5	O 172
Jan 5	@COR	W 104-99	+3.5	W +8.5	170.5	O 203
Jan 10	vsHARV	L 54-79	-5.5	L −30.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 17	@BRWN	L 80-86	-2.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 166
Jan 19	@YALE	L 74-91	+9.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 165
Jan 24	@DART	W 79-69	-2.5	W +7.5	156.5	U 148
Jan 30	vsPENN	W 72-67	-4.5	W +0.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 31	vsPRIN	L 68-80	-5.5	L −17.5	139.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsCOR	L 67-88	+1.5	L −19.5	171.5	U 155
Feb 13	@PENN	L 67-76	+1.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	@PRIN	W 75-65	-1.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 140
Feb 21	vsDART	L 63-64	-6.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 127
Feb 27	vsBRWN	W 80-62	-5.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 142
Feb 28	vsYALE	L 54-60	+6.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 114
Mar 6	@HARV	L 71-81	+4.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

+10.5

CONN

L 62-89

+5.5

UML

W 86-72

+0.5

W 54-49

+0.5

LEH

W 82-67

+12.5

LONG

W 95-70

+21.5

FAIR

W 106-77

+25.5

HOF

W 72-70

−1.5

UALB

W 93-65

+14.5

STBK

L 73-77

−8.5

CAL

L 56-74

−9.5

UNF

W 90-82

−3.5

COR

W 104-99

+8.5

HARV

L 54-79

−30.5

BRWN

L 80-86

−8.5

YALE

L 74-91

−7.5

DART

W 79-69

+7.5

PENN

W 72-67

+0.5

PRIN

L 68-80

−17.5

COR

L 67-88

−19.5

PENN

L 67-76

−7.5

PRIN

W 75-65

+8.5

DART

L 63-64

−7.5

BRWN

W 80-62

+12.5

YALE

L 54-60

+0.5

HARV

L 71-81

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

−24.5

CONN

L 62-89

−4.5

UML

W 86-72

+1.5

W 54-49

−41.5

LEH

W 82-67

+5.5

LONG

W 95-70

+11.5

FAIR

W 106-77

+32.5

HOF

W 72-70

−2.5

UALB

W 93-65

+13.5

STBK

L 73-77

+3.5

CAL

L 56-74

−23.5

UNF

W 90-82

+9.5

COR

W 104-99

+32.5

HARV

L 54-79

−12.5

BRWN

L 80-86

+22.5

YALE

L 74-91

+14.5

DART

W 79-69

−8.5

PENN

W 72-67

−14.5

PRIN

L 68-80

+8.5

COR

L 67-88

−16.5

PENN

L 67-76

−5.5

PRIN

W 75-65

+2.5

DART

L 63-64

−23.5

BRWN

W 80-62

+1.5

YALE

L 54-60

−33.5

HARV

L 71-81

+15.5

over 14under 12avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Columbia has the better starters

Position by position: Stonehill 0, Columbia 4, even 1

StonehillBetterColumbia

G W. Batchelder8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

G M. Franklin9.4 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 48

G A. Boldin TR5.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 1 ast Score 29

COLUSmall

G G. O'Keefe7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 45

G D. Arlington TR2.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 5

COLUSmall

G H. Sanders4.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 38

G E. Greenberg TR2.3 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 0

COLUSmall

F M. Ritter6.9 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 21

G A. Allen TR3.6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Score 15

COLUBig

F C. Igoe8.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 72

StonehillBetterColumbia

STO offense363rd of 366 · -14.8

COLUBig

COLU defense198th of 366 · -4.8

STO defense225th of 366 · -5.9

COLUSmall

COLU offense163rd of 366 · -4.9

Backcourt-10.2 · 5 players

COLUBig

Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-1.1 · 2 players

Bench-3.6 · 5 players

COLUSmall

Bench-1.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestSTO betterCOLU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Stonehill

Guards

W. Batchelder32 minA. Boldin18 min · TRD. Arlington14 min · TRE. Greenberg14 min · TRA. Allen14 min · TRT. Ruth11 min

Forwards

P. McGuinn9 minE. Steele4 min · TRJ. MedalieNewB. LeonsNew

Centers

D. ChengNew

Columbia

Guards

M. Franklin24 minG. O'Keefe21 minH. Sanders15 minJ. Cunningham4 minD. VesseyNewN. RomanelliNew

Forwards

M. Ritter25 minC. Igoe20 minD. Langford11 min · TRR. Nweke8 minL. Coleman4 minN. ClarksonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

STO64.2 #353

COLU74.9 #167

Points per possession

STO0.95 #357

COLU1.10 #130

Pace (possessions)

STO67.6 #244

COLU67.8 #237

Shooting

Effective FG%

STO46.9 #339

COLU53.5 #83

3-point %

STO31.7 #294

COLU35.9 #61

3-point attempt rate

STO40.5 #158

COLU37.5 #221

Free throw rate

STO27.3 #350

COLU28.6 #337

Possessions

Turnover rate

STO19.4 #333

COLU19.3 #332

Offensive rebound rate

STO27.5 #282

COLU36.0 #23

Assists per game

STO11.8 #298

COLU15.0 #90

Defense

Points allowed

STO69.5 #56

COLU73.5 #145

Points allowed per possession

STO1.03 #57

COLU1.09 #188

Opponent effective FG%

STO47.8 #36

COLU51.2 #168

Opponent 3-point %

STO33.4 #150

COLU35.2 #258

Turnovers forced

STO13.4 #347

COLU15.1 #282

Defensive rebound rate

STO72.9 #40

COLU72.8 #42

Steals per game

STO4.7 #347

COLU5.7 #270

Blocks per game

STO4.0 #75

COLU3.0 #235

STO		COLU
Scoring
64.2 #353	Points per game	74.9 #167
0.95 #357	Points per possession	1.10 #130
67.6 #244	Pace (possessions)	67.8 #237
Shooting
46.9 #339	Effective FG%	53.5 #83
31.7 #294	3-point %	35.9 #61
40.5 #158	3-point attempt rate	37.5 #221
27.3 #350	Free throw rate	28.6 #337
Possessions
19.4 #333	Turnover rate	19.3 #332
27.5 #282	Offensive rebound rate	36.0 #23
11.8 #298	Assists per game	15.0 #90
Defense
69.5 #56	Points allowed	73.5 #145
1.03 #57	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #188
47.8 #36	Opponent effective FG%	51.2 #168
33.4 #150	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #258
13.4 #347	Turnovers forced	15.1 #282
72.9 #40	Defensive rebound rate	72.8 #42
4.7 #347	Steals per game	5.7 #270
4.0 #75	Blocks per game	3.0 #235

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Stonehill

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Mercyhurst51–56
W@ Le Moyne81–71
Lvs Mercyhurst72–75
Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves103–77
Wvs Le Moyne77–68

A week or more of rest.

Columbia

14-12 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Harvard71–81
Lvs Yale54–60
Wvs Brown80–62
Lvs Dartmouth63–64
W@ Princeton75–65

A week or more of rest.

Stonehill Skyhawks at Columbia Lions

What could decide it: COLU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Stonehill

Columbia

Columbia has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Stonehill

Columbia