1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 5
  3. UTC @ PSU
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 5

Chattanooga Mocs at Penn State Nittany Lions

Bryce Jordan Center · at Penn State
#226UTCChattanooga
@
#78PSUPenn State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UTCThis seasonPSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PSU 86–68 · win probability PSU 95%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PSU has more of the edges

UTC 2, PSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
UTC has played the 306th-hardest schedule, PSU the 63rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
PSUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTC 29.7, PSU 33.8. Allowed: UTC 42.6, PSU 27.5
PSUBig
PSU offense vs UTC defense
Offense 70th of 366 against a defense 270th, on the model’s ratings
UTCBig
Three-pointers
UTC hits 35.0% and allows 34.2%; PSU hits 32.4% and allows 38.8%. Threes are 49.2% and 38.0% of their shots
UTCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTC 54.2 and allows 51.7; PSU 53.0 and allows 58.4
PSUSmall
UTC offense vs PSU defense
Offense 193rd of 366 against a defense 101st, on the model’s ratings
PSUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTC 14.5%, PSU 15.6%. Forced: UTC 13.1%, PSU 17.7%
PSUSmall
Home court
PSU at home. This season: PSU 0-0 at home, UTC 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTC 21.8%, PSU 25.9%. Defensive: UTC 68.3%, PSU 68.8%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTC 32%, PSU 27%. Transfers in: UTC 2, PSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: UTC plays 67.6 a game (249th fastest), PSU 67.5 (255th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PSU -18.7—
Total—154.0—
Projected score—UTC 67.7 · PSU 86.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPSU -11.0—
1H total72.0—
1H projected scoreUTC 30.5 · PSU 41.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Penn State has the better starters

Position by position: Chattanooga 0, Penn State 2, even 3
ChattanoogaBetterPenn State
G T. Darner9.8 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 49
Even
G D. Bowen TR11.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.9 ast Score 45
G S. Cusano2.5 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Rodgers TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 6.9 ast Score 49
F T. Houser TR14.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 68
Even
F B. Byers TR14.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55
F Y. Levy TR5 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 18
PSUBig
F J. Reed11.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 82
F J. Bowman3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 22
PSUBig
F I. Juric10.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 61
ChattanoogaBetterPenn State
UTC offense193rd of 366 · -5.9
PSUSmall
PSU defense101st of 366 · -0.8
UTC defense270th of 366 · -6.8
PSUBig
PSU offense70th of 366 · +1.7
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.6 · 3 players
PSUBig
Frontcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Bench-1.1 · 1 player
PSUBig
Bench+2.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestUTC betterPSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Chattanooga
Guards
T. Darner29 minS. Cusano13 minH. Holland11 minL. VittersNewM. HamptonNewT. PowellNew
Forwards
T. Houser33 min · TRY. Levy21 min · TRJ. Bowman12 minA. SwiftNewC. HardawayNew
Centers
J. FleemanNew
Penn State
Guards
D. Bowen35 min · TRJ. Rodgers30 min · TRR. Blums23 min · TRT. AllardNewR. GrodinNewA. GemaoNew
Forwards
B. Byers32 min · TRJ. Reed28 minI. Juric26 minT. Oboh22 min · TRR. PrkacinNewF. WibautNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTCPSU
Scoring
74.1 #192Points per game73.7 #211
1.10 #132Points per possession1.09 #148
67.6 #249Pace (possessions)67.5 #255
Shooting
54.2 #60Effective FG%53.0 #102
35.0 #1163-point %32.4 #263
49.2 #183-point attempt rate38.0 #214
29.7 #319Free throw rate33.8 #219
Possessions
14.5 #40Turnover rate15.6 #113
21.8 #358Offensive rebound rate25.9 #325
14.3 #127Assists per game12.7 #238
Defense
78.1 #269Points allowed79.3 #308
1.15 #325Points allowed per possession1.17 #345
51.7 #195Opponent effective FG%58.4 #363
34.2 #195Opponent 3-point %38.8 #363
13.1 #351Turnovers forced17.7 #115
68.3 #240Defensive rebound rate68.8 #210
5.0 #336Steals per game6.9 #132
2.5 #305Blocks per game1.7 #357
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Chattanooga

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs The Citadel85–88
  • Wvs VMI86–79
  • Lvs UNC Greensboro80–85
  • W@ The Citadel93–72
  • W@ Mercer94–90

A week or more of rest.

Penn State

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Northwestern66–76
  • L@ Rutgers62–74
  • Lvs Ohio State62–94
  • Wvs Iowa71–69
  • L@ Nebraska64–87

A week or more of rest.