Penn State Nittany Lions vs Pittsburgh Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 8, 8:00 PM ETThe Palestra · Neutral site

#74PITTPitt

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Penn State and Pitt
PSU	This season	PITT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PITT 76–76 · win probability PITT 52%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PSU has more of the edges

PSU 3, PITT 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PITTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PSU 25.9%, PITT 33.9%. Defensive: PSU 68.8%, PITT 71.9%

PSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PSU 15.6%, PITT 17.2%. Forced: PSU 17.7%, PITT 16.3%

PITTSmall

Three-pointers

PSU hits 32.4% and allows 38.8%; PITT hits 33.4% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 38.0% and 42.6% of their shots

PSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PSU 33.8, PITT 30.4. Allowed: PSU 27.5, PITT 30.9

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: PSU plays 67.5 a game (255th fastest), PITT 65.0 (345th). Faster games mean more points

PSUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PSU 27%, PITT 3%. Transfers in: PSU 5, PITT 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

PITT offense vs PSU defense

Offense 87th of 366 against a defense 101st, on the model’s ratings

Even

PSU offense vs PITT defense

Offense 70th of 366 against a defense 59th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: PSU 53.0 and allows 58.4; PITT 51.0 and allows 53.4

Context

Schedule so far

PSU has played the 63rd-hardest schedule, PITT the 65th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PITT -0.5	—
Total	—	151.6	—
Projected score	—	PSU 75.5 · PITT 76

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PITT -0.2	—
1H total	70.8	—
1H projected score	PSU 35.3 · PITT 35.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PSU LWLLL	12-20	38%	1-3	—
PITT WWWWL	16-17	48%	2-2	—

Venue/role: PSU neutral site; PITT neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU OUOUU	18-14	56%	12-20
PITT UOUUO	19-14	58%	13-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
PITT	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Penn State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	vs MERC	No recent meeting
Nov 15	vs NHVN	W87–43WU
Nov 18	vs IUIN	No recent meeting

Pitt

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ BTLR	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs VILL	L61–79LO
Nov 20	vs CMU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PSU 0–1 PITTPITT leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · PSU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2025-26	PITT 80 vs PSU 46	PSU -1.5	PITT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Penn State

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W W L W W W L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L W L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-2038%

L W L W L L L W L L W L L W W W L L L W L W L W W L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1456%

U U U O O U O U O O O U O U U O U O O O O O O U U O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAIR	W 76-68	-15.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NHVN	W 87-43	-18.5	W +25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsNAVY	W 80-71	-11.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsLAS	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 19	vsHARV	W 84-80	-12.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPROV	L 65-77	+3.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsBU	W 96-87	-14.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsSHU	W 90-59	-14.5	W +16.5	160.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsCAM	W 87-76	-14.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 9	@IU	L 72-113	+14.5	L −26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	vsMSU	L 72-76	+12.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 21	vsPITT	L 46-80	-1.5	L −35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 29	vsNCCU	W 90-67	-23.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 157
Jan 3	vsILL	L 65-73	+14.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 138
Jan 6	vsMICH	L 72-74	+24.5	W +22.5	169.5	U 146
Jan 10	@PUR	L 85-93	+22.5	W +14.5	152.5	O 178
Jan 14	vsUCLA	L 60-71	+4.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 18	@MD	L 73-96	+1.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 169
Jan 22	vsWIS	L 71-98	+5.5	L −21.5	157.5	O 169
Jan 26	@OSU	L 78-84	+11.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 29	@NU	L 73-94	+7.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 167
Feb 1	vsMINN	W 77-75	+2.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 5	@MICH	L 69-110	+26.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 179
Feb 8	vsUSC	L 75-77	+3.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 152
Feb 11	@WASH	W 63-60	+12.5	W +15.5	153.5	U 123
Feb 14	@ORE	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 18	vsRUTG	L 72-85	-4.5	L −17.5	148.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NEB	L 64-87	+17.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsIOWA	W 71-69	+9.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 140
Mar 4	vsOSU	L 62-94	+7.5	L −24.5	152.5	O 156
Mar 8	@RUTG	L 62-74	+4.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 136
Mar 10	vsNU	L 66-76	+4.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

+25.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−2.5

LAS

W 83-69

+5.5

HARV

W 84-80

−8.5

PROV

L 65-77

−8.5

W 96-87

−5.5

SHU

W 90-59

+16.5

CAM

W 87-76

−3.5

L 72-113

−26.5

MSU

L 72-76

+8.5

PITT

L 46-80

−35.5

NCCU

W 90-67

−0.5

ILL

L 65-73

+6.5

MICH

L 72-74

+22.5

PUR

L 85-93

+14.5

UCLA

L 60-71

−6.5

L 73-96

−21.5

WIS

L 71-98

−21.5

OSU

L 78-84

+5.5

L 73-94

−13.5

MINN

W 77-75

+4.5

MICH

L 69-110

−14.5

USC

L 75-77

+1.5

WASH

W 63-60

+15.5

ORE

L 72-83

−4.5

RUTG

L 72-85

−17.5

NEB

L 64-87

−5.5

IOWA

W 71-69

+11.5

OSU

L 62-94

−24.5

RUTG

L 62-74

−7.5

L 66-76

−5.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

−13.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−4.5

LAS

W 83-69

+6.5

HARV

W 84-80

+21.5

PROV

L 65-77

−23.5

W 96-87

+40.5

SHU

W 90-59

−11.5

CAM

W 87-76

+8.5

L 72-113

+32.5

MSU

L 72-76

+2.5

PITT

L 46-80

−20.5

NCCU

W 90-67

+6.5

ILL

L 65-73

−18.5

MICH

L 72-74

−23.5

PUR

L 85-93

+25.5

UCLA

L 60-71

−17.5

L 73-96

+20.5

WIS

L 71-98

+11.5

OSU

L 78-84

+8.5

L 73-94

+18.5

MINN

W 77-75

+9.5

MICH

L 69-110

+17.5

USC

L 75-77

−5.5

WASH

W 63-60

−30.5

ORE

L 72-83

+9.5

RUTG

L 72-85

+8.5

NEB

L 64-87

+3.5

IOWA

W 71-69

−3.5

OSU

L 62-94

+3.5

RUTG

L 62-74

−13.5

L 66-76

−1.5

over 18under 14avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pitt

33 games played

Straight up

13-20

39% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-2039%

W W W L W L L W L L L W W L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

W W L L W L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L W L L L W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

U U O U U U O U O O O O U O O O O O U O O U U O U O O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsYSU	W 74-59	-14.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsLONG	W 78-60	-14.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsEMU	W 78-66	-15.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 13	@WVU	L 49-71	+5.5	L −16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsBUCK	W 84-50	-16.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	vsUCF	L 67-77	-1.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 23	vsQUIN	L 75-83	-12.5	L −20.5	140.5	O 158
Nov 28	vsOSU	W 67-66	+5.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 133
Dec 2	vsTA&M	L 73-81	+3.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 7	vsHOF	L 73-80	-8.5	L −15.5	134.5	O 153
Dec 13	@VILL	L 61-79	+10.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 17	vsBING	W 103-63	-24.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 166
Dec 21	vsPSU	W 80-46	+1.5	W +35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	@MIA	L 69-76	+9.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 3	vsCLEM	L 68-73	+3.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 10	vsSYR	L 72-83	-1.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 14	@GT	W 89-66	-1.5	W +21.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 17	vsLOU	L 59-100	+7.5	L −33.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 21	@BC	L 62-65	-2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsNCSU	L 72-81	+6.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsWAKE	W 80-76	-1.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 156
Jan 31	@CLEM	L 52-63	+10.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 115
Feb 3	@UVA	L 47-67	+12.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 114
Feb 7	vsSMU	L 67-86	+4.5	L −14.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 10	vsDUKE	L 54-70	+17.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 124
Feb 14	@UNC	L 65-79	+11.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 21	vsND	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 25	@STAN	L 67-75	+8.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	@CAL	W 72-56	+6.5	W +22.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 4	vsFSU	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 149
Mar 7	@SYR	W 71-69	+5.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsSTAN	W 64-63	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsNCSU	L 88-98	+8.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 186

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

+0.5

LONG

W 78-60

+3.5

EMU

W 78-66

−3.5

WVU

L 49-71

−16.5

BUCK

W 84-50

+17.5

UCF

L 67-77

−11.5

QUIN

L 75-83

−20.5

OSU

W 67-66

+6.5

TA&M

L 73-81

−4.5

HOF

L 73-80

−15.5

VILL

L 61-79

−7.5

BING

W 103-63

+15.5

PSU

W 80-46

+35.5

MIA

L 69-76

+2.5

CLEM

L 68-73

−1.5

SYR

L 72-83

−12.5

W 89-66

+21.5

LOU

L 59-100

−33.5

L 62-65

−5.5

NCSU

L 72-81

−2.5

WAKE

W 80-76

+2.5

CLEM

L 52-63

−0.5

UVA

L 47-67

−7.5

SMU

L 67-86

−14.5

DUKE

L 54-70

+1.5

UNC

L 65-79

−2.5

W 73-68

+1.5

STAN

L 67-75

+0.5

CAL

W 72-56

+22.5

FSU

L 74-75

+0.5

SYR

W 71-69

+7.5

STAN

W 64-63

+5.5

NCSU

L 88-98

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

−12.5

LONG

W 78-60

−7.5

EMU

W 78-66

+2.5

WVU

L 49-71

−14.5

BUCK

W 84-50

−7.5

UCF

L 67-77

−5.5

QUIN

L 75-83

+17.5

OSU

W 67-66

−15.5

TA&M

L 73-81

+1.5

HOF

L 73-80

+18.5

VILL

L 61-79

+1.5

BING

W 103-63

+31.5

PSU

W 80-46

−20.5

MIA

L 69-76

+0.5

CLEM

L 68-73

+5.5

SYR

L 72-83

+12.5

W 89-66

+9.5

LOU

L 59-100

+6.5

L 62-65

−10.5

NCSU

L 72-81

+8.5

WAKE

W 80-76

+5.5

CLEM

L 52-63

−20.5

UVA

L 47-67

−28.5

SMU

L 67-86

+5.5

DUKE

L 54-70

−12.5

UNC

L 65-79

+1.5

W 73-68

+0.5

STAN

L 67-75

+3.5

CAL

W 72-56

−15.5

FSU

L 74-75

+4.5

SYR

W 71-69

−1.5

STAN

W 64-63

−9.5

NCSU

L 88-98

+41.5

over 19under 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pitt has the better starters

Position by position: Penn State 0, Pitt 2, even 3

Penn StateBetterPitt

G D. Bowen TR11.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.9 ast Score 45

PITTSmall

G N. George TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 5.4 ast Score 75

G J. Rodgers TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 6.9 ast Score 49

PITTBig

G A. Sumler TR19.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 93

F B. Byers TR14.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55

Even

F T. Rudovskii TR13.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 59

F J. Reed11.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 82

Even

F B. Ndongo TR11.8 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.4 ast Score 90

F I. Juric10.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 61

Even

C A. Mighty TR13.3 pts · 10.9 reb · 1 ast Score 71

Penn StateBetterPitt

PSU offense70th of 366 · +1.7

Even

PITT defense59th of 366 · +1.3

PSU defense101st of 366 · -0.8

Even

PITT offense87th of 366 · +0.2

Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players

PITTBig

Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+2.2 · 3 players

PITTBig

Frontcourt+5.4 · 3 players

Bench+2.1 · 2 players

PSUBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPSU betterPITT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Penn State

Guards

D. Bowen35 min · TRJ. Rodgers30 min · TRR. Blums23 min · TRT. AllardNewR. GrodinNewA. GemaoNew

Forwards

B. Byers32 min · TRJ. Reed28 minI. Juric26 minT. Oboh22 min · TRR. PrkacinNewF. WibautNew

Pitt

Guards

N. George32 min · TRA. Sumler31 min · TRC. Hawkins27 min · TRJ. Powell16 min · TRJ. Bethea8 min · TRM. Moore6 min

Forwards

T. Rudovskii32 min · TRB. Ndongo27 min · TRA. Souare8 min · TRD. Diomande8 min · TRB. MayhewNewJ. NelsonNew

Centers

A. Mighty32 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PSU73.7 #211

PITT70.5 #274

Points per possession

PSU1.09 #148

PITT1.08 #181

Pace (possessions)

PSU67.5 #255

PITT65.0 #345

Shooting

Effective FG%

PSU53.0 #102

PITT51.0 #193

3-point %

PSU32.4 #263

PITT33.4 #206

3-point attempt rate

PSU38.0 #214

PITT42.6 #124

Free throw rate

PSU33.8 #219

PITT30.4 #300

Possessions

Turnover rate

PSU15.6 #113

PITT17.2 #223

Offensive rebound rate

PSU25.9 #325

PITT33.9 #72

Assists per game

PSU12.7 #238

PITT13.2 #197

Defense

Points allowed

PSU79.3 #308

PITT71.8 #101

Points allowed per possession

PSU1.17 #345

PITT1.11 #237

Opponent effective FG%

PSU58.4 #363

PITT53.4 #279

Opponent 3-point %

PSU38.8 #363

PITT35.2 #263

Turnovers forced

PSU17.7 #115

PITT16.3 #202

Defensive rebound rate

PSU68.8 #210

PITT71.9 #68

Steals per game

PSU6.9 #132

PITT6.5 #172

Blocks per game

PSU1.7 #357

PITT3.1 #203

PSU		PITT
Scoring
73.7 #211	Points per game	70.5 #274
1.09 #148	Points per possession	1.08 #181
67.5 #255	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #345
Shooting
53.0 #102	Effective FG%	51.0 #193
32.4 #263	3-point %	33.4 #206
38.0 #214	3-point attempt rate	42.6 #124
33.8 #219	Free throw rate	30.4 #300
Possessions
15.6 #113	Turnover rate	17.2 #223
25.9 #325	Offensive rebound rate	33.9 #72
12.7 #238	Assists per game	13.2 #197
Defense
79.3 #308	Points allowed	71.8 #101
1.17 #345	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #237
58.4 #363	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #279
38.8 #363	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #263
17.7 #115	Turnovers forced	16.3 #202
68.8 #210	Defensive rebound rate	71.9 #68
6.9 #132	Steals per game	6.5 #172
1.7 #357	Blocks per game	3.1 #203

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Penn State

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northwestern66–76
L@ Rutgers62–74
Lvs Ohio State62–94
Wvs Iowa71–69
L@ Nebraska64–87

A week or more of rest.

Pitt

13-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs NC State88–98
Wvs Stanford64–63
W@ Syracuse71–69
Lvs Florida St74–75
W@ California72–56

A week or more of rest.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Pittsburgh Panthers

What could decide it: PSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Penn State

Pitt

Pitt has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Penn State

Pitt