North Dakota State Bison at Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 8, 6:00 PM ETIcardo Center · at Bakersfield

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Dakota St and Bakersfield
NDSU	This season	CSUB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NDSU 78–73 · win probability NDSU 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NDSU has more of the edges

NDSU 6, CSUB 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NDSUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NDSU 32.9%, CSUB 30.4%. Defensive: NDSU 74.5%, CSUB 64.4%

NDSUBig

Three-pointers

NDSU hits 35.4% and allows 33.9%; CSUB hits 29.0% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 42.8% and 28.9% of their shots

NDSUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NDSU 53.2 and allows 52.0; CSUB 45.7 and allows 54.0

NDSUBig

NDSU offense vs CSUB defense

Offense 212th of 366 against a defense 348th, on the model’s ratings

NDSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NDSU 15.6%, CSUB 18.8%. Forced: NDSU 18.7%, CSUB 17.9%

Context

Schedule so far

NDSU has played the 315th-hardest schedule, CSUB the 211th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NDSUSmall

CSUB offense vs NDSU defense

Offense 287th of 366 against a defense 209th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: NDSU plays 69.2 a game (169th fastest), CSUB 72.7 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

CSUBSmall

Home court

CSUB at home. This season: CSUB 0-0 at home, NDSU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NDSU 25%, CSUB 10%. Transfers in: NDSU 4, CSUB 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NDSU 30.6, CSUB 42.2. Allowed: NDSU 29.2, CSUB 42.6

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NDSU -5.9	—
Total	—	150.8	—
Projected score	—	NDSU 78.3 · CSUB 72.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NDSU -3.6	—
1H total	70.5	—
1H projected score	NDSU 37.1 · CSUB 33.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NDSU WLWLL	18-14	56%	9-6	—
CSUB LWWWL	12-18	40%	6-9	—

Venue/role: NDSU away; CSUB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NDSU OUUUO	15-17	47%	24-8
CSUB OOOOO	16-14	53%	6-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDSU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
CSUB	0-10 0%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Dakota St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs ILST	L68–77LO
Nov 15	vs CSUB	W80–69WU
Nov 18	@ CSU	No recent meeting

Bakersfield

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	@ WIU	W74–58WU
Nov 15	@ NDSU	L69–80LU
Nov 20	@ IDHO	W64–63WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NDSU 2–1 CSUBNDSU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · NDSU has won the last 2 meetings · NDSU 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 11, 2025-26	NDSU 80 @ CSUB 69	CSUB +7.5	NDSU W
Dec 23, 2024-25	CSUB 60 @ NDSU 94	NDSU -9.5	NDSU W
Nov 11, 2024-25	NDSU 81 @ CSUB 86	CSUB -2.5	CSUB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Dakota St

32 games played

Straight up

24-8

75% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-875%

L L W W W L W W W W L L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1456%

W L W W W L W L W W L L W L W L W W W W L L L W W W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O O O U O U U U O O O U O O O U U U U O U O U U O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ORST	L 65-67	+9.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 5	@UCD	L 68-80	+1.5	L −10.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 11	vsCSUN	W 90-68	-4.5	W +17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 17	vsSIU	W 92-85	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsJXST	W 56-43	-3.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 99
Nov 28	@ARST	L 80-85	+3.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 165
Dec 3	@MONT	W 81-72	+3.5	W +12.5	153.5	U 153
Dec 6	vsNAU	W 69-68	-12.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 11	@CSUB	W 80-69	-7.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 149
Dec 13	@DRKE	W 99-94	+5.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 21	vsUCI	L 73-74	-1.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 22	@UTEP	L 66-76	-2.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 142
Dec 31	vsSDAK	W 84-61	-11.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 145
Jan 3	vsORU	W 79-77	-13.5	L −11.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 8	@KC	W 97-73	-9.5	W +14.5	144.5	O 170
Jan 10	@OMA	W 78-76	-5.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 14	vsSDST	W 76-65	-5.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsSTMN	W 68-65	-2.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 22	@DEN	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	160.5	U 159
Jan 24	@ORU	W 86-58	-10.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 31	@SDAK	W 89-84	-8.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 173
Feb 5	vsDEN	L 71-78	-12.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 149
Feb 7	vsOMA	W 92-84	-9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Feb 14	@UND	W 83-66	-5.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 149
Feb 18	@SDST	W 74-66	-1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 140
Feb 21	vsKC	W 95-59	-19.5	W +16.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 26	@STMN	L 62-84	+3.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsUND	W 96-63	-11.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsORU	W 76-65	-12.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 141
Mar 7	vsOMA	W 74-50	-8.5	W +15.5	146.5	U 124
Mar 8	vsUND	W 70-62	-11.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 132
Mar 19	vsMSU	L 67-92	+16.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORST

L 65-67

+7.5

UCD

L 68-80

−10.5

CSUN

W 90-68

+17.5

SIU

W 92-85

+5.5

JXST

W 56-43

+9.5

ARST

L 80-85

−1.5

MONT

W 81-72

+12.5

NAU

W 69-68

−11.5

CSUB

W 80-69

+3.5

DRKE

W 99-94

+10.5

UCI

L 73-74

−2.5

UTEP

L 66-76

−12.5

SDAK

W 84-61

+11.5

ORU

W 79-77

−11.5

W 97-73

+14.5

OMA

W 78-76

−3.5

SDST

W 76-65

+5.5

STMN

W 68-65

+0.5

DEN

W 82-77

+0.5

ORU

W 86-58

+17.5

SDAK

W 89-84

−3.5

DEN

L 71-78

−19.5

OMA

W 92-84

−1.5

UND

W 83-66

+11.5

SDST

W 74-66

+6.5

W 95-59

+16.5

STMN

L 62-84

−18.5

UND

W 96-63

+21.5

ORU

W 76-65

−1.5

OMA

W 74-50

+15.5

UND

W 70-62

−3.5

MSU

L 67-92

−8.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORST

L 65-67

−12.5

UCD

L 68-80

+5.5

CSUN

W 90-68

+1.5

SIU

W 92-85

+23.5

JXST

W 56-43

−43.5

ARST

L 80-85

+4.5

MONT

W 81-72

−0.5

NAU

W 69-68

−10.5

CSUB

W 80-69

−0.5

DRKE

W 99-94

+47.5

UCI

L 73-74

+0.5

UTEP

L 66-76

+2.5

SDAK

W 84-61

−19.5

ORU

W 79-77

+9.5

W 97-73

+25.5

OMA

W 78-76

+6.5

SDST

W 76-65

−10.5

STMN

W 68-65

−18.5

DEN

W 82-77

−1.5

ORU

W 86-58

−7.5

SDAK

W 89-84

+18.5

DEN

L 71-78

−7.5

OMA

W 92-84

+29.5

UND

W 83-66

−0.5

SDST

W 74-66

−6.5

W 95-59

+5.5

STMN

L 62-84

−9.5

UND

W 96-63

+6.5

ORU

W 76-65

−6.5

OMA

W 74-50

−22.5

UND

W 70-62

−15.5

MSU

L 67-92

+14.5

over 15under 17avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bakersfield

30 games played

Straight up

6-24

20% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-2420%

L W L L W L W L L L L W L W W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

L W W L L L W L L L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

U U O O O U U U O U U U O O U O U U O O U U U O O O O O O O

7 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CAL	L 60-87	+15.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 147
Nov 11	vsWIU	W 74-58	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@MISS	L 60-82	+23.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 17	@PRST	L 80-93	+8.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 173
Nov 22	vsMVSU	W 86-70	-21.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 156
Nov 25	@FSU	L 59-89	+26.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 148
Nov 30	vsFRES	W 76-71	+10.5	W +15.5	150.5	U 147
Dec 4	@CSUN	L 66-87	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 6	@UCSB	L 84-109	+12.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 11	vsNDSU	L 69-80	+7.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 149
Dec 13	vsPEPP	L 62-70	-1.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 132
Dec 23	vsIDHO	W 64-63	+7.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 1	vsUCI	L 77-81	+11.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 158
Jan 3	@UCD	W 81-79	+9.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsUCR	W 67-66	-3.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 10	@LBSU	L 75-81	+6.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsUCSB	L 69-75	+7.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsUCSD	L 62-83	+8.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 22	@HAW	L 71-98	+17.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 169
Jan 29	vsCP	L 79-104	+1.5	L −23.5	161.5	O 183
Jan 31	vsUCD	L 72-80	+5.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 152
Feb 5	@UCI	L 62-78	+16.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 7	@CSUF	L 66-82	+9.5	L −6.5	157.5	U 148
Feb 12	vsHAW	L 74-89	+13.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 19	@UCR	L 65-93	+6.5	L −21.5	150.5	O 158
Feb 21	vsCSUF	L 80-88	+5.5	L −2.5	160.5	O 168
Feb 26	@UCSD	L 72-84	+14.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsLBSU	L 87-88	+3.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 175
Mar 5	vsCSUN	L 84-86	+8.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 170
Mar 7	@CP	L 76-108	+8.5	L −23.5	174.5	O 184

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−11.5

WIU

W 74-58

+8.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

−4.5

MVSU

W 86-70

−5.5

FSU

L 59-89

−3.5

FRES

W 76-71

+15.5

CSUN

L 66-87

−15.5

UCSB

L 84-109

−12.5

NDSU

L 69-80

−3.5

PEPP

L 62-70

−9.5

IDHO

W 64-63

+8.5

UCI

L 77-81

+7.5

UCD

W 81-79

+11.5

UCR

W 67-66

−2.5

LBSU

L 75-81

+0.5

UCSB

L 69-75

+1.5

UCSD

L 62-83

−12.5

HAW

L 71-98

−9.5

L 79-104

−23.5

UCD

L 72-80

−2.5

UCI

L 62-78

+0.5

CSUF

L 66-82

−6.5

HAW

L 74-89

−1.5

UCR

L 65-93

−21.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−2.5

UCSD

L 72-84

+2.5

LBSU

L 87-88

+2.5

CSUN

L 84-86

+6.5

L 76-108

−23.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−0.5

WIU

W 74-58

−9.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

+31.5

MVSU

W 86-70

+17.5

FSU

L 59-89

−11.5

FRES

W 76-71

−3.5

CSUN

L 66-87

−2.5

UCSB

L 84-109

+47.5

NDSU

L 69-80

−0.5

PEPP

L 62-70

−15.5

IDHO

W 64-63

−23.5

UCI

L 77-81

+14.5

UCD

W 81-79

+8.5

UCR

W 67-66

−14.5

LBSU

L 75-81

+13.5

UCSB

L 69-75

−0.5

UCSD

L 62-83

−2.5

HAW

L 71-98

+24.5

L 79-104

+21.5

UCD

L 72-80

−0.5

UCI

L 62-78

−4.5

CSUF

L 66-82

−9.5

HAW

L 74-89

+11.5

UCR

L 65-93

+7.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+7.5

UCSD

L 72-84

+7.5

LBSU

L 87-88

+22.5

CSUN

L 84-86

+6.5

L 76-108

+9.5

over 16under 14avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bakersfield has the better starters

Position by position: N Dakota St 0, Bakersfield 2, even 3

N Dakota StBetterBakersfield

G M. Bell TR8.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 19

CSUBSmall

G B. Cofield TR9.8 pts · 4.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 42

G A. Stefonowicz9.3 pts · 3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 42

CSUBSmall

G J. Alexander9.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 62

G R. Diaz TR8.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79

No call

G S. Pouedet TR0.6 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

G C. Smith2.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F C. Dioramma TR4.8 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 38

F K. Poom TR8.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 31

No call

F C. Barnes TR0.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

N Dakota StBetterBakersfield

NDSU offense212th of 366 · -6.5

NDSUBig

CSUB defense348th of 366 · -9.5

NDSU defense209th of 366 · -5.3

NDSUSmall

CSUB offense287th of 366 · -8.9

Backcourt-4.6 · 4 players

CSUBBig

Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-0.9 · 2 players

Bench-1.0 · 2 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestNDSU betterCSUB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N Dakota St

Guards

M. Bell34 min · TRA. Stefonowicz33 minR. Diaz22 min · TRC. Smith9 minR. Massey8 minJ. Robison2 min · TR

Forwards

K. Poom20 min · TRA. NagyNewK. TateNewC. SchoenfeldNewO. JunkerNewC. StackNew

Bakersfield

Guards

B. Cofield21 min · TRJ. Alexander20 minS. Pouedet5 min · TRS. WigingtonNewK. BradleyNewE. BrysonNew

Forwards

C. Dioramma15 min · TRC. Barnes6 min · TRT. KoppensNewP. IvancicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NDSU78.7 #87

CSUB72.0 #244

Points per possession

NDSU1.14 #76

CSUB0.99 #336

Pace (possessions)

NDSU69.2 #169

CSUB72.7 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

NDSU53.2 #92

CSUB45.7 #355

3-point %

NDSU35.4 #93

CSUB29.0 #353

3-point attempt rate

NDSU42.8 #122

CSUB28.9 #356

Free throw rate

NDSU30.6 #289

CSUB42.2 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

NDSU15.6 #108

CSUB18.8 #313

Offensive rebound rate

NDSU32.9 #89

CSUB30.4 #181

Assists per game

NDSU14.8 #97

CSUB10.9 #340

Defense

Points allowed

NDSU71.4 #90

CSUB83.4 #351

Points allowed per possession

NDSU1.03 #63

CSUB1.15 #326

Opponent effective FG%

NDSU52.0 #215

CSUB54.0 #301

Opponent 3-point %

NDSU33.9 #173

CSUB36.0 #306

Turnovers forced

NDSU18.7 #62

CSUB17.9 #101

Defensive rebound rate

NDSU74.5 #15

CSUB64.4 #349

Steals per game

NDSU7.7 #64

CSUB7.4 #91

Blocks per game

NDSU2.8 #265

CSUB5.0 #18

NDSU		CSUB
Scoring
78.7 #87	Points per game	72.0 #244
1.14 #76	Points per possession	0.99 #336
69.2 #169	Pace (possessions)	72.7 #22
Shooting
53.2 #92	Effective FG%	45.7 #355
35.4 #93	3-point %	29.0 #353
42.8 #122	3-point attempt rate	28.9 #356
30.6 #289	Free throw rate	42.2 #27
Possessions
15.6 #108	Turnover rate	18.8 #313
32.9 #89	Offensive rebound rate	30.4 #181
14.8 #97	Assists per game	10.9 #340
Defense
71.4 #90	Points allowed	83.4 #351
1.03 #63	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #326
52.0 #215	Opponent effective FG%	54.0 #301
33.9 #173	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #306
18.7 #62	Turnovers forced	17.9 #101
74.5 #15	Defensive rebound rate	64.4 #349
7.7 #64	Steals per game	7.4 #91
2.8 #265	Blocks per game	5.0 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Dakota St

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan St67–92
Wvs North Dakota70–62
Wvs Omaha74–50
Wvs Oral Roberts76–65
Wvs North Dakota96–63

A week or more of rest.

Bakersfield

6-24 in 2025-26 overall · 2-18 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Cal Poly76–108
Lvs CSU Northridge84–86
Lvs Long Beach St87–88
L@ UC San Diego72–84
Lvs Fullerton80–88

A week or more of rest.

North Dakota State Bison at Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners

What could decide it: NDSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Dakota St

Bakersfield

Bakersfield has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N Dakota St

Bakersfield