1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. PITT @ BTLR
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Pittsburgh Panthers at Butler Bulldogs

Hinkle Fieldhouse · at Butler
#74PITTPitt
@
#72BTLRButler
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PITTThis seasonBTLR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BTLR 78–75 · win probability BTLR 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BTLR has more of the edges

PITT 0, BTLR 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BTLRBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: PITT 30.4, BTLR 42.1. Allowed: PITT 30.9, BTLR 24.9
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: PITT plays 65.0 a game (345th fastest), BTLR 71.1 (69th). Faster games mean more points
BTLRSmall
Home court
BTLR at home. This season: BTLR 0-0 at home, PITT 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
PITT hits 33.4% and allows 35.2%; BTLR hits 32.7% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 42.6% and 35.0% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PITT 33.9%, BTLR 34.5%. Defensive: PITT 71.9%, BTLR 70.0%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PITT 3%, BTLR 22%. Transfers in: PITT 10, BTLR 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: PITT 51.0 and allows 53.4; BTLR 50.9 and allows 51.9
Even
PITT offense vs BTLR defense
Offense 87th of 366 against a defense 107th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PITT 17.2%, BTLR 15.9%. Forced: PITT 16.3%, BTLR 15.1%
Context
Schedule so far
PITT has played the 65th-hardest schedule, BTLR the 56th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
BTLR offense vs PITT defense
Offense 56th of 366 against a defense 59th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BTLR -3.2—
Total—153.1—
Projected score—PITT 74.9 · BTLR 78.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBTLR -1.8—
1H total71.6—
1H projected scorePITT 34.9 · BTLR 36.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Pitt 0, Butler 0, even 5
PittBetterButler
G N. George TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 5.4 ast Score 75
Even
G J. Ellerbee TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 66
G A. Sumler TR19.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 93
No call
G J. Jackson9.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.8 ast Not ranked
F T. Rudovskii TR13.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 59
Even
F C. Moore TR11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 46
F B. Ndongo TR11.8 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.4 ast Score 90
Even
F T. Anderson TR10.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92
C A. Mighty TR13.3 pts · 10.9 reb · 1 ast Score 71
Even
C D. Jones6.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76
PittBetterButler
PITT offense87th of 366 · +0.2
Even
BTLR defense107th of 366 · -1.1
PITT defense59th of 366 · +1.3
Even
BTLR offense56th of 366 · +3.1
Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players
PITTSmall
Backcourt+1.3 · 2 players
Frontcourt+5.4 · 3 players
PITTSmall
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
BTLRBig
Bench+0.9 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestPITT betterBTLR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pitt
Guards
N. George32 min · TRA. Sumler31 min · TRC. Hawkins27 min · TRJ. Powell16 min · TRJ. Bethea8 min · TRM. Moore6 min
Forwards
T. Rudovskii32 min · TRB. Ndongo27 min · TRA. Souare8 min · TRD. Diomande8 min · TRB. MayhewNewJ. NelsonNew
Centers
A. Mighty32 min · TR
Butler
Guards
J. Ellerbee28 min · TRJ. Jackson23 minE. Klafke15 min · TRE. McComb1 minB. WalkerNewS. AdlerNew
Forwards
C. Moore26 min · TRT. Anderson19 min · TRS. Calderon4 min · TRH. BrutusNewB. CardinalNewM. MaricNew
Centers
D. Jones20 minK. NdzieNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PITTBTLR
Scoring
70.5 #274Points per game79.4 #75
1.08 #181Points per possession1.12 #106
65.0 #345Pace (possessions)71.1 #69
Shooting
51.0 #193Effective FG%50.9 #199
33.4 #2063-point %32.7 #242
42.6 #1243-point attempt rate35.0 #276
30.4 #300Free throw rate42.1 #29
Possessions
17.2 #223Turnover rate15.9 #131
33.9 #72Offensive rebound rate34.5 #58
13.2 #197Assists per game15.5 #64
Defense
71.8 #101Points allowed77.5 #252
1.11 #237Points allowed per possession1.09 #195
53.4 #279Opponent effective FG%51.9 #208
35.2 #263Opponent 3-point %33.3 #142
16.3 #202Turnovers forced15.1 #272
71.9 #68Defensive rebound rate70.0 #163
6.5 #172Steals per game6.5 #178
3.1 #203Blocks per game3.2 #191
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pitt

13-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs NC State88–98
  • Wvs Stanford64–63
  • W@ Syracuse71–69
  • Lvs Florida St74–75
  • W@ California72–56

A week or more of rest.

Butler

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Providence81–91
  • W@ DePaul81–71
  • Lvs Creighton59–76
  • L@ Villanova73–82
  • Wvs Xavier80–75

A week or more of rest.