Houston Cougars vs California Golden Bears: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 8, 8:30 PM ETTahoe Blue Event Center · Neutral site

#2HOUHouston AP #10

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Houston and California
HOU	This season	CAL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 85–63 · win probability HOU 97%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 4, CAL 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 35.7%, CAL 26.0%. Defensive: HOU 69.7%, CAL 69.5%

HOUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 12.8%, CAL 15.1%. Forced: HOU 20.7%, CAL 16.1%

CALBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 26.3, CAL 36.2. Allowed: HOU 38.7, CAL 36.3

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: HOU plays 65.0 a game (346th fastest), CAL 69.8 (126th). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

HOU offense vs CAL defense

Offense 10th of 366 against a defense 100th, on the model’s ratings

HOUSmall

CAL offense vs HOU defense

Offense 84th of 366 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 17th-hardest schedule, CAL the 77th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CALSmall

Three-pointers

HOU hits 34.7% and allows 31.6%; CAL hits 36.9% and allows 31.0%. Threes are 40.7% and 43.1% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 51.9 and allows 46.2; CAL 52.6 and allows 49.8

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 26%, CAL 29%. Transfers in: HOU 5, CAL 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HOU -22.3	—
Total	—	147.4	—
Projected score	—	HOU 84.9 · CAL 62.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOU -13.4	—
1H total	69.0	—
1H projected score	HOU 41.2 · CAL 27.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
HOU WLWWL	19-18	51%	5-7	—
CAL WLLWL	17-16	52%	1-1	—

Venue/role: HOU neutral site; CAL neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UOUOU	15-22	41%	30-7
CAL UUOOU	14-19	42%	21-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
CAL	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Houston

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs JXST	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs RUTG	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs OAK	W78–45WU

California

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs USC	W71–66WU
Nov 14	vs UTU	No recent meeting
Nov 19	vs ETAM	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Houston

37 games played

Straight up

30-7

81% wins

Against the spread

19-18

51% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-22

41% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

30-781%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L L L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1851%

L L W L W L L L W W W W L W L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2241%

U U U O O O O U O U O O U U U U U O O O U U U U U O U U O U O U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLEH	W 75-57	-36.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsTOW	W 65-48	-26.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 12	vsOAK	W 78-45	-30.5	W +2.5	138.5	U 123
Nov 16	vsAUB	W 73-72	-7.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 20	vsRID	W 91-45	-40.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 24	vsSYR	W 78-74	-14.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTENN	L 73-76	-2.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	vsND	W 66-56	-11.5	L −1.5	132.5	U 122
Dec 6	vsFSU	W 82-67	-12.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 10	vsJKST	W 80-38	-40.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	vsNOLA	W 99-57	-32.5	W +9.5	138.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsARK	W 94-85	-5.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsMTSU	W 69-60	-25.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 3	@CIN	W 67-60	-4.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 127
Jan 6	vsTTU	W 69-65	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 134
Jan 10	@BAY	W 77-55	-2.5	W +19.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 13	vsWVU	W 77-48	-13.5	W +15.5	127.5	U 125
Jan 18	vsASU	W 103-73	-18.5	W +11.5	142.5	O 176
Jan 24	@TTU	L 86-90	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 28	@TCU	W 79-70	-8.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 149
Jan 31	vsCIN	W 76-54	-13.5	W +8.5	135.5	U 130
Feb 4	vsUCF	W 79-55	-15.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 7	@BYU	W 77-66	-1.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 143
Feb 10	@UTAH	W 66-52	-16.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 118
Feb 14	vsKSU	W 78-64	-22.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 16	@ISU	L 67-70	+2.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 21	vsARIZ	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 139
Feb 23	@KU	L 56-69	-2.5	L −15.5	138.5	U 125
Feb 28	vsCOLO	W 102-62	-20.5	W +19.5	139.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsBAY	W 77-64	-12.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 141
Mar 7	@OKST	W 82-75	-13.5	L −6.5	151.5	O 157
Mar 12	vsBYU	W 73-66	-9.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 13	vsKU	W 69-47	-5.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Mar 14	vsARIZ	L 74-79	+1.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 153
Mar 19	vsIDHO	W 78-47	-24.5	W +6.5	137.5	U 125
Mar 21	vsTA&M	W 88-57	-10.5	W +20.5	142.5	O 145
Mar 26	vsILL	L 55-65	-2.5	L −12.5	141.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−18.5

TOW

W 65-48

−9.5

OAK

W 78-45

+2.5

AUB

W 73-72

−6.5

RID

W 91-45

+5.5

SYR

W 78-74

−10.5

TENN

L 73-76

−5.5

W 66-56

−1.5

FSU

W 82-67

+2.5

JKST

W 80-38

+1.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+9.5

ARK

W 94-85

+3.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−16.5

CIN

W 67-60

+2.5

TTU

W 69-65

−3.5

BAY

W 77-55

+19.5

WVU

W 77-48

+15.5

ASU

W 103-73

+11.5

TTU

L 86-90

−5.5

TCU

W 79-70

+0.5

CIN

W 76-54

+8.5

UCF

W 79-55

+8.5

BYU

W 77-66

+9.5

UTAH

W 66-52

−2.5

KSU

W 78-64

−8.5

ISU

L 67-70

−0.5

ARIZ

L 66-73

−13.5

L 56-69

−15.5

COLO

W 102-62

+19.5

BAY

W 77-64

+0.5

OKST

W 82-75

−6.5

BYU

W 73-66

−2.5

W 69-47

+16.5

ARIZ

L 74-79

−3.5

IDHO

W 78-47

+6.5

TA&M

W 88-57

+20.5

ILL

L 55-65

−12.5

covered 19didn’t cover 18avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−4.5

TOW

W 65-48

−17.5

OAK

W 78-45

−15.5

AUB

W 73-72

+4.5

RID

W 91-45

+1.5

SYR

W 78-74

+11.5

TENN

L 73-76

+12.5

W 66-56

−10.5

FSU

W 82-67

+0.5

JKST

W 80-38

−19.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+17.5

ARK

W 94-85

+32.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−9.5

CIN

W 67-60

−8.5

TTU

W 69-65

−8.5

BAY

W 77-55

−10.5

WVU

W 77-48

−2.5

ASU

W 103-73

+33.5

TTU

L 86-90

+34.5

TCU

W 79-70

+9.5

CIN

W 76-54

−5.5

UCF

W 79-55

−12.5

BYU

W 77-66

−8.5

UTAH

W 66-52

−24.5

KSU

W 78-64

−2.5

ISU

L 67-70

+2.5

ARIZ

L 66-73

−3.5

L 56-69

−13.5

COLO

W 102-62

+24.5

BAY

W 77-64

−2.5

OKST

W 82-75

+5.5

BYU

W 73-66

−7.5

W 69-47

−23.5

ARIZ

L 74-79

+14.5

IDHO

W 78-47

−12.5

TA&M

W 88-57

+2.5

ILL

L 55-65

−21.5

over 15under 22avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

California

33 games played

Straight up

21-12

64% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-19

42% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1264%

W W W L W W W W W W W W L W L L L W W L W W L L W W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

W L W W L W W L L L W W L L L W L W W W W L L L W W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1942%

U U U O U O O U U O U U O O U O U O U U O O U O O U U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCSUB	W 87-60	-15.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 147
Nov 6	vsWRST	W 77-67	-14.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 10	vsCSUF	W 93-65	-22.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 158
Nov 13	@KSU	L 96-99	+6.5	W +3.5	164.5	O 195
Nov 18	vsPRES	W 67-57	-10.5	L −0.5	124.5	U 124
Nov 21	vsSAC	W 91-67	-21.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 25	vsUCLA	W 80-72	+7.5	W +15.5	143.5	O 152
Dec 2	vsUTAH	W 79-72	-7.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 151
Dec 6	vsPAC	W 67-61	-7.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsNWST	W 79-70	-19.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 149
Dec 19	vsMORG	W 97-50	-26.5	W +20.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 21	vsCOLU	W 74-56	-8.5	W +9.5	153.5	U 130
Dec 30	vsLOU	L 70-90	+7.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 160
Jan 2	vsND	W 72-71	-3.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 7	@UVA	L 60-84	+14.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	@VT	L 75-78	+5.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 153
Jan 14	vsDUKE	L 56-71	+14.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 127
Jan 17	vsUNC	W 84-78	+7.5	W +13.5	151.5	O 162
Jan 24	@STAN	W 78-66	+4.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 144
Jan 28	@FSU	L 61-63	+3.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 124
Jan 31	@MIA	W 86-85	+11.5	W +12.5	148.5	O 171
Feb 4	vsGT	W 90-85	-7.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 175
Feb 7	vsCLEM	L 55-77	+4.5	L −17.5	139.5	U 132
Feb 11	@SYR	L 100-107	+6.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 207
Feb 14	@BC	W 86-75	-3.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 161
Feb 21	vsSTAN	W 72-66	-1.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 138
Feb 25	vsSMU	W 73-69	+4.5	W +8.5	163.5	U 142
Feb 28	vsPITT	L 56-72	-6.5	L −22.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 4	@GT	W 76-65	-2.5	W +8.5	154.5	U 141
Mar 7	@WAKE	L 73-80	+5.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 153
Mar 11	vsFSU	L 89-95	+1.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 184
Mar 18	vsUIC	W 91-73	-6.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 164
Mar 22	vsJOES	L 75-76	-5.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUB

W 87-60

+11.5

WRST

W 77-67

−4.5

CSUF

W 93-65

+5.5

KSU

L 96-99

+3.5

PRES

W 67-57

−0.5

SAC

W 91-67

+2.5

UCLA

W 80-72

+15.5

UTAH

W 79-72

−0.5

PAC

W 67-61

−1.5

NWST

W 79-70

−10.5

MORG

W 97-50

+20.5

COLU

W 74-56

+9.5

LOU

L 70-90

−12.5

W 72-71

−2.5

UVA

L 60-84

−9.5

L 75-78

+2.5

DUKE

L 56-71

−0.5

UNC

W 84-78

+13.5

STAN

W 78-66

+16.5

FSU

L 61-63

+1.5

MIA

W 86-85

+12.5

W 90-85

−2.5

CLEM

L 55-77

−17.5

SYR

L 100-107

−0.5

W 86-75

+7.5

STAN

W 72-66

+4.5

SMU

W 73-69

+8.5

PITT

L 56-72

−22.5

W 76-65

+8.5

WAKE

L 73-80

−1.5

FSU

L 89-95

−4.5

UIC

W 91-73

+11.5

JOES

L 75-76

−6.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUB

W 87-60

−0.5

WRST

W 77-67

−4.5

CSUF

W 93-65

−4.5

KSU

L 96-99

+30.5

PRES

W 67-57

−0.5

SAC

W 91-67

+3.5

UCLA

W 80-72

+8.5

UTAH

W 79-72

−1.5

PAC

W 67-61

−16.5

NWST

W 79-70

+3.5

MORG

W 97-50

−4.5

COLU

W 74-56

−23.5

LOU

L 70-90

+0.5

W 72-71

+4.5

UVA

L 60-84

−4.5

L 75-78

+4.5

DUKE

L 56-71

−22.5

UNC

W 84-78

+10.5

STAN

W 78-66

−2.5

FSU

L 61-63

−33.5

MIA

W 86-85

+22.5

W 90-85

+22.5

CLEM

L 55-77

−7.5

SYR

L 100-107

+58.5

W 86-75

+16.5

STAN

W 72-66

−11.5

SMU

W 73-69

−21.5

PITT

L 56-72

−15.5

W 76-65

−13.5

WAKE

L 73-80

−1.5

FSU

L 89-95

+29.5

UIC

W 91-73

+13.5

JOES

L 75-76

−1.5

over 14under 19avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Houston has the better starters

Position by position: Houston 4, California 0, even 1

HoustonBetterCalifornia

G C. Hadnot TR20.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.6 ast Score 95

HOUSmall

G M. Cooper TR13.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 74

G D. Thomas TR15.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 6.5 ast Score 99

HOUSmall

G N. Indrusaitis TR9.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 76

F D. Gillespie TR17.9 pts · 11.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 94

HOUBig

G J. Ross TR6.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 58

F B. East TR12.8 pts · 9.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 92

HOUBig

G S. Carr3.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 46

F J. Tugler8.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 96

Even

F L. Dort8 pts · 7.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 83

HoustonBetterCalifornia

HOU offense10th of 366 · +10.1

HOUSmall

CAL defense100th of 366 · -0.7

HOU defense1st of 366 · +13.2

HOUSmall

CAL offense84th of 366 · +0.4

Backcourt+10.0 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+1.0 · 4 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player

Bench+3.6 · 4 players

HOUBig

Bench+0.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterCAL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Houston

Guards

C. Hadnot35 min · TRD. Thomas29 min · TRC. Weaver21 min · TRM. Miller12 minK. Jefferson4 minB. JacksonNew

Forwards

D. Gillespie33 min · TRB. East24 min · TRJ. Tugler24 minC. McCarty12 min

Centers

A. DianeNewD. SilimanaNew

California

Guards

M. Cooper27 min · TRN. Indrusaitis24 min · TRJ. Ross21 min · TRS. Carr17 minB. Fisher1 minL. Butler1 min

Forwards

L. Dort23 minJ. Wilkins10 min · TRA. Ali7 min · TRS. Yeanay5 minD. Manyiel Dut4 min

Centers

M. Kocanas7 minN. MitrovicNewD. DaubarisNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU76.9 #119

CAL77.7 #99

Points per possession

HOU1.18 #36

CAL1.11 #118

Pace (possessions)

HOU65.0 #346

CAL69.8 #126

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU51.9 #150

CAL52.6 #119

3-point %

HOU34.7 #134

CAL36.9 #30

3-point attempt rate

HOU40.7 #153

CAL43.1 #111

Free throw rate

HOU26.3 #355

CAL36.2 #146

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU12.8 #3

CAL15.1 #74

Offensive rebound rate

HOU35.7 #32

CAL26.0 #322

Assists per game

HOU14.6 #111

CAL14.1 #142

Defense

Points allowed

HOU62.3 #1

CAL73.4 #140

Points allowed per possession

HOU0.96 #5

CAL1.05 #92

Opponent effective FG%

HOU46.2 #12

CAL49.8 #91

Opponent 3-point %

HOU31.6 #49

CAL31.0 #34

Turnovers forced

HOU20.7 #14

CAL16.1 #216

Defensive rebound rate

HOU69.7 #173

CAL69.5 #180

Steals per game

HOU7.5 #75

CAL5.9 #244

Blocks per game

HOU3.8 #96

CAL3.0 #217

HOU		CAL
Scoring
76.9 #119	Points per game	77.7 #99
1.18 #36	Points per possession	1.11 #118
65.0 #346	Pace (possessions)	69.8 #126
Shooting
51.9 #150	Effective FG%	52.6 #119
34.7 #134	3-point %	36.9 #30
40.7 #153	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #111
26.3 #355	Free throw rate	36.2 #146
Possessions
12.8 #3	Turnover rate	15.1 #74
35.7 #32	Offensive rebound rate	26.0 #322
14.6 #111	Assists per game	14.1 #142
Defense
62.3 #1	Points allowed	73.4 #140
0.96 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #92
46.2 #12	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #91
31.6 #49	Opponent 3-point %	31.0 #34
20.7 #14	Turnovers forced	16.1 #216
69.7 #173	Defensive rebound rate	69.5 #180
7.5 #75	Steals per game	5.9 #244
3.8 #96	Blocks per game	3.0 #217

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Houston

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois55–65
Wvs Texas A&M88–57
Wvs Idaho78–47
Lvs Arizona74–79
Wvs Kansas69–47

A week or more of rest.

California

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Saint Joseph's75–76
Wvs UIC91–73
Lvs Florida St89–95
L@ Wake Forest73–80
W@ Georgia Tech76–65

A week or more of rest.

Houston Cougars vs California Golden Bears

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Houston

California

Houston has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Houston

California