USC Trojans at California Golden Bears: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 11:00 PM ETHaas Pavilion · at California

#36USCUSC AP #21

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: USC and California
USC	This season	CAL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USC 81–76 · win probability USC 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 157.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

USC 4, CAL 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CALBig

Three-pointers

USC hits 31.7% and allows 30.9%; CAL hits 36.9% and allows 31.0%. Threes are 34.1% and 43.1% of their shots

USCBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: USC 44.2, CAL 36.2. Allowed: USC 33.4, CAL 36.3

USCSmall

USC offense vs CAL defense

Offense 27th of 366 against a defense 100th, on the model’s ratings

CALSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: USC 17.4%, CAL 15.1%. Forced: USC 16.4%, CAL 16.1%

USCSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: USC 64%, CAL 29%. Transfers in: USC 6, CAL 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

USCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: USC 32.4%, CAL 26.0%. Defensive: USC 67.8%, CAL 69.5%

CALSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: USC 50.4 and allows 49.7; CAL 52.6 and allows 49.8

CALSmall

Home court

CAL at home. This season: CAL 0-0 at home, USC 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: USC plays 72.4 a game (25th fastest), CAL 69.8 (126th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

USC has played the 42nd-hardest schedule, CAL the 77th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

CAL offense vs USC defense

Offense 84th of 366 against a defense 55th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	USC -4.9	—
Total	—	157.6	—
Projected score	—	USC 81.3 · CAL 76.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USC -3.0	—
1H total	73.7	—
1H projected score	USC 38.3 · CAL 35.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC LLLLL	13-18	42%	5-6	—
CAL WLLWL	17-16	52%	9-12	—

Venue/role: USC away; CAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC UUOOO	17-14	55%	17-14
CAL UUOOU	14-19	42%	21-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
CAL	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

USC

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs UAPB	No recent meeting
Nov 19	vs TAR	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs UL	No recent meeting

California

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs UTU	No recent meeting
Nov 19	vs ETAM	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs ALST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

USC 5–2 CALUSC leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · CAL has won the last 2 meetings · USC 4-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 17, 2024-25	CAL 71 @ USC 66	USC -6.5	CAL W
Feb 7, 2023-24	USC 77 @ CAL 83	CAL -2.5	CAL W
Jan 3, 2023-24	CAL 74 @ USC 82	USC -7.5	USC W
Feb 16, 2022-23	CAL 60 @ USC 97	USC -16.5	USC W
Nov 30, 2022-23	USC 66 @ CAL 51	CAL +9.5	USC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

USC

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

W W W W W W W W L W W W L L W W L L W L W W W L L L L L L L L

8 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

W W W L L L W W L L L W L L W W W L W W L W L W L L L L L L L

7 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1455%

U O U O U O O O O O U O U U U O U U U O O O U O O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCP	W 94-64	-24.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 9	vsMAN	W 114-83	-28.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 14	vsILST	W 87-67	-15.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 154
Nov 20	vsTROY	W 107-106	-18.5	L −17.5	159.5	O 213
Nov 24	vsBOIS	W 70-67	-3.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsHALL	W 83-81	-6.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsASU	W 88-75	-4.5	W +8.5	161.5	O 163
Dec 2	@ORE	W 82-77	-2.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsWASH	L 76-84	-4.5	L −12.5	154.5	O 160
Dec 9	@USD	W 94-81	-14.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 175
Dec 14	vsWSU	W 68-61	-12.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 129
Dec 17	vsUTSA	W 97-70	-25.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 167
Jan 2	@MICH	L 66-96	+22.5	L −7.5	173.5	U 162
Jan 5	@MSU	L 51-80	+11.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 131
Jan 9	@MINN	W 70-69	+3.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 13	vsMD	W 88-71	-9.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 159
Jan 17	vsPUR	L 64-69	+9.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 133
Jan 21	vsNU	L 68-74	-6.5	L −12.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 25	@WIS	W 73-71	+7.5	W +9.5	158.5	U 144
Jan 28	@IOWA	L 72-73	+9.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 145
Jan 31	vsRUTG	W 78-75	-11.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 3	vsIU	W 81-75	+1.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 156
Feb 8	@PSU	W 77-75	-3.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 152
Feb 11	@OSU	L 82-89	+7.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 171
Feb 18	vsILL	L 65-101	+8.5	L −27.5	151.5	O 166
Feb 21	vsORE	L 70-71	-5.5	L −6.5	149.5	U 141
Feb 24	@UCLA	L 62-81	+6.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 143
Feb 28	vsNEB	L 67-82	+5.5	L −9.5	149.5	U 149
Mar 4	@WASH	L 72-91	+5.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 163
Mar 7	vsUCLA	L 68-89	+4.5	L −16.5	151.5	O 157
Mar 11	vsWASH	L 79-83	+3.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-64

+5.5

MAN

W 114-83

+2.5

ILST

W 87-67

+4.5

TROY

W 107-106

−17.5

BOIS

W 70-67

−0.5

HALL

W 83-81

−4.5

ASU

W 88-75

+8.5

ORE

W 82-77

+2.5

WASH

L 76-84

−12.5

USD

W 94-81

−1.5

WSU

W 68-61

−5.5

UTSA

W 97-70

+1.5

MICH

L 66-96

−7.5

MSU

L 51-80

−17.5

MINN

W 70-69

+4.5

W 88-71

+7.5

PUR

L 64-69

+4.5

L 68-74

−12.5

WIS

W 73-71

+9.5

IOWA

L 72-73

+8.5

RUTG

W 78-75

−8.5

W 81-75

+7.5

PSU

W 77-75

−1.5

OSU

L 82-89

+0.5

ILL

L 65-101

−27.5

ORE

L 70-71

−6.5

UCLA

L 62-81

−12.5

NEB

L 67-82

−9.5

WASH

L 72-91

−13.5

UCLA

L 68-89

−16.5

WASH

L 79-83

−0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-64

−5.5

MAN

W 114-83

+41.5

ILST

W 87-67

−1.5

TROY

W 107-106

+53.5

BOIS

W 70-67

−18.5

HALL

W 83-81

+18.5

ASU

W 88-75

+1.5

ORE

W 82-77

+4.5

WASH

L 76-84

+5.5

USD

W 94-81

+16.5

WSU

W 68-61

−27.5

UTSA

W 97-70

+9.5

MICH

L 66-96

−11.5

MSU

L 51-80

−20.5

MINN

W 70-69

−8.5

W 88-71

+8.5

PUR

L 64-69

−22.5

L 68-74

−7.5

WIS

W 73-71

−14.5

IOWA

L 72-73

+3.5

RUTG

W 78-75

+6.5

W 81-75

+2.5

PSU

W 77-75

−5.5

OSU

L 82-89

+18.5

ILL

L 65-101

+14.5

ORE

L 70-71

−8.5

UCLA

L 62-81

−7.5

NEB

L 67-82

−0.5

WASH

L 72-91

+12.5

UCLA

L 68-89

+5.5

WASH

L 79-83

+7.5

over 17under 14avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

California

33 games played

Straight up

21-12

64% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-19

42% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1264%

W W W L W W W W W W W W L W L L L W W L W W L L W W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

W L W W L W W L L L W W L L L W L W W W W L L L W W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1942%

U U U O U O O U U O U U O O U O U O U U O O U O O U U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCSUB	W 87-60	-15.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 147
Nov 6	vsWRST	W 77-67	-14.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 10	vsCSUF	W 93-65	-22.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 158
Nov 13	@KSU	L 96-99	+6.5	W +3.5	164.5	O 195
Nov 18	vsPRES	W 67-57	-10.5	L −0.5	124.5	U 124
Nov 21	vsSAC	W 91-67	-21.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 25	vsUCLA	W 80-72	+7.5	W +15.5	143.5	O 152
Dec 2	vsUTAH	W 79-72	-7.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 151
Dec 6	vsPAC	W 67-61	-7.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsNWST	W 79-70	-19.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 149
Dec 19	vsMORG	W 97-50	-26.5	W +20.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 21	vsCOLU	W 74-56	-8.5	W +9.5	153.5	U 130
Dec 30	vsLOU	L 70-90	+7.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 160
Jan 2	vsND	W 72-71	-3.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 7	@UVA	L 60-84	+14.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	@VT	L 75-78	+5.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 153
Jan 14	vsDUKE	L 56-71	+14.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 127
Jan 17	vsUNC	W 84-78	+7.5	W +13.5	151.5	O 162
Jan 24	@STAN	W 78-66	+4.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 144
Jan 28	@FSU	L 61-63	+3.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 124
Jan 31	@MIA	W 86-85	+11.5	W +12.5	148.5	O 171
Feb 4	vsGT	W 90-85	-7.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 175
Feb 7	vsCLEM	L 55-77	+4.5	L −17.5	139.5	U 132
Feb 11	@SYR	L 100-107	+6.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 207
Feb 14	@BC	W 86-75	-3.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 161
Feb 21	vsSTAN	W 72-66	-1.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 138
Feb 25	vsSMU	W 73-69	+4.5	W +8.5	163.5	U 142
Feb 28	vsPITT	L 56-72	-6.5	L −22.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 4	@GT	W 76-65	-2.5	W +8.5	154.5	U 141
Mar 7	@WAKE	L 73-80	+5.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 153
Mar 11	vsFSU	L 89-95	+1.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 184
Mar 18	vsUIC	W 91-73	-6.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 164
Mar 22	vsJOES	L 75-76	-5.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUB

W 87-60

+11.5

WRST

W 77-67

−4.5

CSUF

W 93-65

+5.5

KSU

L 96-99

+3.5

PRES

W 67-57

−0.5

SAC

W 91-67

+2.5

UCLA

W 80-72

+15.5

UTAH

W 79-72

−0.5

PAC

W 67-61

−1.5

NWST

W 79-70

−10.5

MORG

W 97-50

+20.5

COLU

W 74-56

+9.5

LOU

L 70-90

−12.5

W 72-71

−2.5

UVA

L 60-84

−9.5

L 75-78

+2.5

DUKE

L 56-71

−0.5

UNC

W 84-78

+13.5

STAN

W 78-66

+16.5

FSU

L 61-63

+1.5

MIA

W 86-85

+12.5

W 90-85

−2.5

CLEM

L 55-77

−17.5

SYR

L 100-107

−0.5

W 86-75

+7.5

STAN

W 72-66

+4.5

SMU

W 73-69

+8.5

PITT

L 56-72

−22.5

W 76-65

+8.5

WAKE

L 73-80

−1.5

FSU

L 89-95

−4.5

UIC

W 91-73

+11.5

JOES

L 75-76

−6.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUB

W 87-60

−0.5

WRST

W 77-67

−4.5

CSUF

W 93-65

−4.5

KSU

L 96-99

+30.5

PRES

W 67-57

−0.5

SAC

W 91-67

+3.5

UCLA

W 80-72

+8.5

UTAH

W 79-72

−1.5

PAC

W 67-61

−16.5

NWST

W 79-70

+3.5

MORG

W 97-50

−4.5

COLU

W 74-56

−23.5

LOU

L 70-90

+0.5

W 72-71

+4.5

UVA

L 60-84

−4.5

L 75-78

+4.5

DUKE

L 56-71

−22.5

UNC

W 84-78

+10.5

STAN

W 78-66

−2.5

FSU

L 61-63

−33.5

MIA

W 86-85

+22.5

W 90-85

+22.5

CLEM

L 55-77

−7.5

SYR

L 100-107

+58.5

W 86-75

+16.5

STAN

W 72-66

−11.5

SMU

W 73-69

−21.5

PITT

L 56-72

−15.5

W 76-65

−13.5

WAKE

L 73-80

−1.5

FSU

L 89-95

+29.5

UIC

W 91-73

+13.5

JOES

L 75-76

−1.5

over 14under 19avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

USC has the better starters

Position by position: USC 3, California 0, even 2

USCBetterCalifornia

G J. Cox TR18.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 96

USCSmall

G M. Cooper TR13.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 74

G J. Jones15.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86

Even

G N. Indrusaitis TR9.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 76

G R. Rice20.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 6 ast Score 97

USCBig

G J. Ross TR6.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 58

G I. Bruns TR20.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 88

USCBig

G S. Carr3.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 46

F J. Cofie9.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 77

Even

F L. Dort8 pts · 7.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 83

USCBetterCalifornia

USC offense27th of 366 · +7.0

USCSmall

CAL defense100th of 366 · -0.7

USC defense55th of 366 · +1.4

Even

CAL offense84th of 366 · +0.4

Backcourt+15.2 · 4 players

USCBig

Backcourt+1.0 · 4 players

Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player

Bench+2.9 · 5 players

USCSmall

Bench+0.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUSC betterCAL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

USC

Guards

J. Cox35 min · TRJ. Jones35 minR. Rice34 minI. Bruns32 min · TRK. Lewis30 min · TRA. Hunkin-Claytor28 min · TR

Forwards

J. Cofie31 minJ. Hughes28 min · TRA. RatliffNewC. CollinsNew

Centers

E. Reibe14 min · TRD. RatliffNewO. Joe AguNew

California

Guards

M. Cooper27 min · TRN. Indrusaitis24 min · TRJ. Ross21 min · TRS. Carr17 minB. Fisher1 minL. Butler1 min

Forwards

L. Dort23 minJ. Wilkins10 min · TRA. Ali7 min · TRS. Yeanay5 minD. Manyiel Dut4 min

Centers

M. Kocanas7 minN. MitrovicNewD. DaubarisNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

USC77.8 #97

CAL77.7 #99

Points per possession

USC1.07 #199

CAL1.11 #118

Pace (possessions)

USC72.4 #25

CAL69.8 #126

Shooting

Effective FG%

USC50.4 #225

CAL52.6 #119

3-point %

USC31.7 #299

CAL36.9 #30

3-point attempt rate

USC34.1 #292

CAL43.1 #111

Free throw rate

USC44.2 #8

CAL36.2 #146

Possessions

Turnover rate

USC17.4 #228

CAL15.1 #74

Offensive rebound rate

USC32.4 #113

CAL26.0 #322

Assists per game

USC14.9 #92

CAL14.1 #142

Defense

Points allowed

USC78.4 #277

CAL73.4 #140

Points allowed per possession

USC1.08 #173

CAL1.05 #92

Opponent effective FG%

USC49.7 #89

CAL49.8 #91

Opponent 3-point %

USC30.9 #31

CAL31.0 #34

Turnovers forced

USC16.4 #198

CAL16.1 #216

Defensive rebound rate

USC67.8 #269

CAL69.5 #180

Steals per game

USC6.2 #217

CAL5.9 #244

Blocks per game

USC5.5 #8

CAL3.0 #217

USC		CAL
Scoring
77.8 #97	Points per game	77.7 #99
1.07 #199	Points per possession	1.11 #118
72.4 #25	Pace (possessions)	69.8 #126
Shooting
50.4 #225	Effective FG%	52.6 #119
31.7 #299	3-point %	36.9 #30
34.1 #292	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #111
44.2 #8	Free throw rate	36.2 #146
Possessions
17.4 #228	Turnover rate	15.1 #74
32.4 #113	Offensive rebound rate	26.0 #322
14.9 #92	Assists per game	14.1 #142
Defense
78.4 #277	Points allowed	73.4 #140
1.08 #173	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #92
49.7 #89	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #91
30.9 #31	Opponent 3-point %	31.0 #34
16.4 #198	Turnovers forced	16.1 #216
67.8 #269	Defensive rebound rate	69.5 #180
6.2 #217	Steals per game	5.9 #244
5.5 #8	Blocks per game	3.0 #217

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

USC

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Washington79–83
Lvs UCLA68–89
L@ Washington72–91
Lvs Nebraska67–82
L@ UCLA62–81

A week or more of rest.

California

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Saint Joseph's75–76
Wvs UIC91–73
Lvs Florida St89–95
L@ Wake Forest73–80
W@ Georgia Tech76–65

A week or more of rest.

USC Trojans at California Golden Bears

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

USC

California

USC has the better starters

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USC

California