Pacific Tigers at Long Beach State Beach: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 10:00 PM ETLBS Financial Credit Union Pyramid · at Long Beach St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacific and Long Beach St
PAC	This season	LBSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PAC 75–70 · win probability PAC 66%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PAC has more of the edges

PAC 6, LBSU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PACBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PAC 35.3%, LBSU 26.2%. Defensive: PAC 75.0%, LBSU 72.2%

PACBig

LBSU offense vs PAC defense

Offense 285th of 366 against a defense 147th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: PAC plays 66.1 a game (312th fastest), LBSU 71.7 (46th). Faster games mean more points

PACBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PAC 52.2 and allows 50.0; LBSU 50.6 and allows 53.7

LBSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PAC 20.1%, LBSU 18.0%. Forced: PAC 15.1%, LBSU 17.5%

PACSmall

PAC offense vs LBSU defense

Offense 195th of 366 against a defense 300th, on the model’s ratings

PACSmall

Three-pointers

PAC hits 35.8% and allows 34.7%; LBSU hits 32.7% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 35.4% and 34.8% of their shots

LBSUSmall

Home court

LBSU at home. This season: LBSU 0-0 at home, PAC 0-0 away

PACSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PAC 30.5, LBSU 30.7. Allowed: PAC 36.3, LBSU 42.3

Context

Schedule so far

PAC has played the 122nd-hardest schedule, LBSU the 152nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PAC 8%, LBSU 8%. Transfers in: PAC 9, LBSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PAC -4.6	—
Total	—	145.3	—
Projected score	—	PAC 74.9 · LBSU 70.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PAC -2.9	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	PAC 35.4 · LBSU 32.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PAC LWLWW	17-14	55%	7-8	—
LBSU WLLLW	16-14	53%	8-6	—

Venue/role: PAC away; LBSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PAC OUUUU	11-20	35%	16-15
LBSU UOOUO	20-10	67%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PAC	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
LBSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacific

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs AF	W80–65WO
Nov 21	vs BRAD	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs JXST	No recent meeting

Long Beach St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	@ UCLA	L69–93LO
Nov 23	@ FIU	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs ARST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PAC 1–0 LBSUPAC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · PAC 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2025-26	LBSU 66 @ PAC 69	PAC -12.5	LBSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacific

31 games played

Straight up

16-15

52% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-20

35% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1552%

L W W L W W W W L L W L L W W L W L W W W L L W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1455%

W L W L W W W W W L W L L W L L L L W W W L L W W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-2035%

O U U U U U U O U O O U O U O O U U O U U O U O U U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NEV	L 77-78	+13.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsLBSU	W 69-66	-12.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 135
Nov 15	@CSUF	W 85-73	-6.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 158
Nov 20	@FAU	L 59-82	+7.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsSTBK	W 86-58	-4.5	W +23.5	145.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsJAX	W 68-53	-2.5	W +12.5	135.5	U 121
Nov 29	vsSAC	W 68-54	-10.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 122
Dec 3	@AF	W 80-65	-5.5	W +9.5	134.5	O 145
Dec 6	@CAL	L 61-67	+7.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 128
Dec 16	@BYU	L 57-93	+23.5	L −12.5	149.5	O 150
Dec 21	vsNICH	W 95-82	-8.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 177
Dec 28	@USD	L 54-66	-2.5	L −14.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 30	@LMU	L 71-80	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 2	vsORST	W 84-53	-4.5	W +26.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 4	vsPEPP	W 74-69	-11.5	L −6.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 8	@PORT	L 89-90	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 179
Jan 10	vsUSD	W 77-70	-8.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 147
Jan 14	@SCU	L 69-85	+12.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 154
Jan 17	@ORST	W 81-64	+1.5	W +18.5	139.5	O 145
Jan 24	vsSEA	W 56-54	-1.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 110
Jan 28	vsPORT	W 74-51	-8.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 125
Jan 31	@SF	L 82-87	+4.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 169
Feb 4	vsSCU	L 56-71	+6.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 127
Feb 7	@PEPP	W 92-59	-7.5	W +25.5	142.5	O 151
Feb 11	vsLMU	W 65-59	-5.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 124
Feb 14	vsSMC	L 61-72	+7.5	L −3.5	135.5	U 133
Feb 18	@WSU	L 70-87	+2.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 157
Feb 21	@GONZ	L 62-71	+22.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 133
Feb 28	vsSF	L 61-72	-3.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsSEA	W 61-58	-1.5	W +1.5	129.5	U 119
Mar 8	vsSCU	L 68-76	+9.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 77-78

+12.5

LBSU

W 69-66

−9.5

CSUF

W 85-73

+5.5

FAU

L 59-82

−15.5

STBK

W 86-58

+23.5

JAX

W 68-53

+12.5

SAC

W 68-54

+3.5

W 80-65

+9.5

CAL

L 61-67

+1.5

BYU

L 57-93

−12.5

NICH

W 95-82

+4.5

USD

L 54-66

−14.5

LMU

L 71-80

−5.5

ORST

W 84-53

+26.5

PEPP

W 74-69

−6.5

PORT

L 89-90

−4.5

USD

W 77-70

−1.5

SCU

L 69-85

−3.5

ORST

W 81-64

+18.5

SEA

W 56-54

+0.5

PORT

W 74-51

+14.5

L 82-87

−0.5

SCU

L 56-71

−8.5

PEPP

W 92-59

+25.5

LMU

W 65-59

+0.5

SMC

L 61-72

−3.5

WSU

L 70-87

−14.5

GONZ

L 62-71

+13.5

L 61-72

−14.5

SEA

W 61-58

+1.5

SCU

L 68-76

+1.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 77-78

+15.5

LBSU

W 69-66

−6.5

CSUF

W 85-73

−1.5

FAU

L 59-82

−13.5

STBK

W 86-58

−1.5

JAX

W 68-53

−14.5

SAC

W 68-54

−24.5

W 80-65

+10.5

CAL

L 61-67

−16.5

BYU

L 57-93

+0.5

NICH

W 95-82

+37.5

USD

L 54-66

−30.5

LMU

L 71-80

+11.5

ORST

W 84-53

−0.5

PEPP

W 74-69

+4.5

PORT

L 89-90

+34.5

USD

W 77-70

−0.5

SCU

L 69-85

−0.5

ORST

W 81-64

+5.5

SEA

W 56-54

−27.5

PORT

W 74-51

−17.5

L 82-87

+30.5

SCU

L 56-71

−24.5

PEPP

W 92-59

+8.5

LMU

W 65-59

−17.5

SMC

L 61-72

−2.5

WSU

L 70-87

+12.5

GONZ

L 62-71

−11.5

L 61-72

−9.5

SEA

W 61-58

−10.5

SCU

L 68-76

−4.5

over 11under 20avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Long Beach St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-10

67% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L W L L L W L W L W W W L L L L L L L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L L W W L L W W W W L W W W L W W L W L W W L L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1067%

U O U O O O O O O O O O U U O O O U O U O O O U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@SDSU	L 45-77	+25.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 8	@FRES	L 62-82	+6.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 144
Nov 12	@PAC	L 66-69	+12.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 135
Nov 16	vsILST	L 80-82	+8.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsMTST	L 72-78	+3.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 150
Nov 26	@PORT	L 73-93	+5.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 166
Nov 30	vsUSD	W 76-72	+2.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 148
Dec 4	@UCSB	L 77-84	+13.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 161
Dec 6	vsUCSD	L 74-80	+8.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 154
Dec 9	@SJSU	L 83-89	+7.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 18	vsPEPP	W 81-78	-4.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 159
Dec 21	@ISU	L 60-91	+37.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 151
Jan 3	vsCP	W 74-66	-2.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 8	@UCI	L 64-74	+10.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 10	vsCSUB	W 81-75	-6.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsUCR	W 88-73	-5.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 161
Jan 17	@CSUN	W 87-80	+7.5	W +14.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 22	@CSUF	L 61-71	+3.5	L −6.5	160.5	U 132
Jan 24	vsUCSB	L 71-74	+4.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 29	@UCR	L 61-71	-1.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 31	vsHAW	L 82-89	+8.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 171
Feb 5	@UCSD	L 74-77	+10.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 12	vsCSUF	L 82-86	-2.5	L −6.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 14	@UCD	L 54-71	+4.5	L −12.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 19	vsUCI	L 58-69	+5.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 127
Feb 21	vsCSUN	L 76-78	+2.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 154
Feb 26	@CP	L 92-102	+5.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 194
Feb 28	@CSUB	W 88-87	-3.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 175
Mar 5	vsUCD	L 70-76	+1.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 146
Mar 7	@HAW	W 84-75	+14.5	W +23.5	150.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDSU

L 45-77

−6.5

FRES

L 62-82

−13.5

PAC

L 66-69

+9.5

ILST

L 80-82

+6.5

MTST

L 72-78

−2.5

PORT

L 73-93

−14.5

USD

W 76-72

+6.5

UCSB

L 77-84

+6.5

UCSD

L 74-80

+2.5

SJSU

L 83-89

+1.5

PEPP

W 81-78

−1.5

ISU

L 60-91

+6.5

W 74-66

+5.5

UCI

L 64-74

+0.5

CSUB

W 81-75

−0.5

UCR

W 88-73

+9.5

CSUN

W 87-80

+14.5

CSUF

L 61-71

−6.5

UCSB

L 71-74

+1.5

UCR

L 61-71

−11.5

HAW

L 82-89

+1.5

UCSD

L 74-77

+7.5

CSUF

L 82-86

−6.5

UCD

L 54-71

−12.5

UCI

L 58-69

−5.5

CSUN

L 76-78

+0.5

L 92-102

−4.5

CSUB

W 88-87

−2.5

UCD

L 70-76

−4.5

HAW

W 84-75

+23.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDSU

L 45-77

−13.5

FRES

L 62-82

+1.5

PAC

L 66-69

−6.5

ILST

L 80-82

+20.5

MTST

L 72-78

+9.5

PORT

L 73-93

+17.5

USD

W 76-72

+0.5

UCSB

L 77-84

+19.5

UCSD

L 74-80

+8.5

SJSU

L 83-89

+30.5

PEPP

W 81-78

+17.5

ISU

L 60-91

+1.5

W 74-66

−22.5

UCI

L 64-74

−4.5

CSUB

W 81-75

+13.5

UCR

W 88-73

+19.5

CSUN

W 87-80

+8.5

CSUF

L 61-71

−28.5

UCSB

L 71-74

+0.5

UCR

L 61-71

−12.5

HAW

L 82-89

+26.5

UCSD

L 74-77

+6.5

CSUF

L 82-86

+11.5

UCD

L 54-71

−24.5

UCI

L 58-69

−17.5

CSUN

L 76-78

−3.5

L 92-102

+31.5

CSUB

W 88-87

+22.5

UCD

L 70-76

−3.5

HAW

W 84-75

+8.5

over 20under 10avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Pacific 1, Long Beach St 1, even 3

PacificBetterLong Beach St

G J. Winston TR15.5 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 74

PACSmall

G J. Payne TR6.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 40

G C. Amundsen TR9.4 pts · 2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 34

Even

G Y. Sissoko TR2.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 32

G C. Jones TR3.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 17

No call

G C. Jones3.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

F G. Ripp TR3.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 10

LBSUSmall

F G. Brcic TR4.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 39

F J. Pitt4.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 57

Even

C N. Amenhauser TR5.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 57

PacificBetterLong Beach St

PAC offense195th of 366 · -6.1

PACSmall

LBSU defense300th of 366 · -7.7

PAC defense147th of 366 · -3.2

PACBig

LBSU offense285th of 366 · -8.8

Backcourt-2.4 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players

LBSUSmall

Frontcourt-0.3 · 2 players

Bench-1.2 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.9 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestPAC betterLBSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacific

Guards

J. Winston36 min · TRC. Amundsen30 min · TRC. Jones17 min · TRA. Nyorha10 min · TRD. Harris6 min · TRN. BuduNew

Forwards

G. Ripp17 min · TRJ. Pitt17 minJ. Thompson11 min · TRV. OsazeeNewJ. CarotNew

Centers

J. McFarland3 min · TRI. Matlekovic2 min · TR

Long Beach St

Guards

J. Payne22 min · TRY. Sissoko11 min · TRC. Jones10 minJ. TenganNewJ. GrayNewM. AdamsNew

Forwards

G. Brcic17 min · TRK. Smith8 min · TRJ. Chaikovsky6 minB. WrightNewH. LauNewM. VanlaninghamNew

Centers

N. Amenhauser12 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PAC71.3 #262

LBSU73.2 #219

Points per possession

PAC1.08 #176

LBSU1.02 #303

Pace (possessions)

PAC66.1 #312

LBSU71.7 #46

Shooting

Effective FG%

PAC52.2 #140

LBSU50.6 #207

3-point %

PAC35.8 #65

LBSU32.7 #245

3-point attempt rate

PAC35.4 #266

LBSU34.8 #280

Free throw rate

PAC30.5 #297

LBSU30.7 #287

Possessions

Turnover rate

PAC20.1 #350

LBSU18.0 #271

Offensive rebound rate

PAC35.3 #42

LBSU26.2 #315

Assists per game

PAC14.9 #93

LBSU12.3 #264

Defense

Points allowed

PAC69.8 #60

LBSU79.0 #297

Points allowed per possession

PAC1.05 #93

LBSU1.10 #220

Opponent effective FG%

PAC50.0 #101

LBSU53.7 #290

Opponent 3-point %

PAC34.7 #233

LBSU34.4 #212

Turnovers forced

PAC15.1 #281

LBSU17.5 #119

Defensive rebound rate

PAC75.0 #8

LBSU72.2 #60

Steals per game

PAC5.4 #309

LBSU6.5 #173

Blocks per game

PAC2.2 #332

LBSU2.9 #250

PAC		LBSU
Scoring
71.3 #262	Points per game	73.2 #219
1.08 #176	Points per possession	1.02 #303
66.1 #312	Pace (possessions)	71.7 #46
Shooting
52.2 #140	Effective FG%	50.6 #207
35.8 #65	3-point %	32.7 #245
35.4 #266	3-point attempt rate	34.8 #280
30.5 #297	Free throw rate	30.7 #287
Possessions
20.1 #350	Turnover rate	18.0 #271
35.3 #42	Offensive rebound rate	26.2 #315
14.9 #93	Assists per game	12.3 #264
Defense
69.8 #60	Points allowed	79.0 #297
1.05 #93	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #220
50.0 #101	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #290
34.7 #233	Opponent 3-point %	34.4 #212
15.1 #281	Turnovers forced	17.5 #119
75.0 #8	Defensive rebound rate	72.2 #60
5.4 #309	Steals per game	6.5 #173
2.2 #332	Blocks per game	2.9 #250

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacific

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Santa Clara68–76
Wvs Seattle U61–58
Lvs San Francisco61–72
L@ Gonzaga62–71
L@ Washington St70–87

A week or more of rest.

Long Beach St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

W@ Hawai'i84–75
Lvs UC Davis70–76
W@ Bakersfield88–87
L@ Cal Poly92–102
Lvs CSU Northridge76–78

A week or more of rest.

Pacific Tigers at Long Beach State Beach

What could decide it: PAC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Pacific

Long Beach St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacific

Long Beach St