1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 8
  3. USC vs WICH
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 8

USC Trojans vs Wichita State Shockers

Tahoe Blue Event Center · Neutral site
#36USCUSC AP #21
vs
#77WICHWichita St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USCThis seasonWICH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USC 81–75 · win probability USC 71%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WICH has more of the edges

USC 2, WICH 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WICHBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USC 32.4%, WICH 38.0%. Defensive: USC 67.8%, WICH 71.2%
USCSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: USC 44.2, WICH 36.0. Allowed: USC 33.4, WICH 34.3
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: USC plays 72.4 a game (25th fastest), WICH 69.3 (164th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
USC has played the 42nd-hardest schedule, WICH the 106th. A record against a soft schedule means less
WICHSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USC 17.4%, WICH 15.0%. Forced: USC 16.4%, WICH 15.7%
USCSmall
USC offense vs WICH defense
Offense 27th of 366 against a defense 82nd, on the model’s ratings
WICHSmall
Three-pointers
USC hits 31.7% and allows 30.9%; WICH hits 33.5% and allows 31.5%. Threes are 34.1% and 33.9% of their shots
Even
WICH offense vs USC defense
Offense 78th of 366 against a defense 55th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USC 64%, WICH 55%. Transfers in: USC 6, WICH 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: USC 50.4 and allows 49.7; WICH 49.4 and allows 47.2
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USC -6.5—
Total—156.4—
Projected score—USC 81.4 · WICH 75

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSC -4.0—
1H total73.1—
1H projected scoreUSC 38.5 · WICH 34.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

USC has the better starters

Position by position: USC 2, Wichita St 0, even 3
USCBetterWichita St
G J. Cox TR18.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 96
USCSmall
G J. Long TR11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4 ast Score 72
G J. Jones15.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
Even
G J. Frison TR16.5 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.1 ast Score 93
G R. Rice20.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 6 ast Score 97
USCBig
G M. Gray7.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 37
G I. Bruns TR20.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 88
Even
G T. Williams8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 80
F J. Cofie9.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 77
Even
C W. Berg8.8 pts · 8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 85
USCBetterWichita St
USC offense27th of 366 · +7.0
USCSmall
WICH defense82nd of 366 · +0.2
USC defense55th of 366 · +1.4
Even
WICH offense78th of 366 · +0.8
Backcourt+15.2 · 4 players
USCBig
Backcourt+3.8 · 4 players
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
WICHSmall
Frontcourt+2.8 · 1 player
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
USCSmall
Bench+0.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUSC betterWICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
USC
Guards
J. Cox35 min · TRJ. Jones35 minR. Rice34 minI. Bruns32 min · TRK. Lewis30 min · TRA. Hunkin-Claytor28 min · TR
Forwards
J. Cofie31 minJ. Hughes28 min · TRA. RatliffNewC. CollinsNew
Centers
E. Reibe14 min · TRD. RatliffNewO. Joe AguNew
Wichita St
Guards
J. Long34 min · TRJ. Frison31 min · TRM. Gray27 minT. Williams22 minB. Heard18 min · TRJ. IghovodjaNew
Forwards
D. Battie18 minJ. Valencia13 minN. Hill5 minH. Thengvall2 min
Centers
W. Berg22 minC. Malonga11 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USCWICH
Scoring
77.8 #97Points per game77.6 #105
1.07 #199Points per possession1.12 #98
72.4 #25Pace (possessions)69.3 #164
Shooting
50.4 #225Effective FG%49.4 #274
31.7 #2993-point %33.5 #195
34.1 #2923-point attempt rate33.9 #300
44.2 #8Free throw rate36.0 #149
Possessions
17.4 #228Turnover rate15.0 #62
32.4 #113Offensive rebound rate38.0 #8
14.9 #92Assists per game11.3 #325
Defense
78.4 #277Points allowed70.8 #71
1.08 #173Points allowed per possession1.02 #42
49.7 #89Opponent effective FG%47.2 #24
30.9 #31Opponent 3-point %31.5 #44
16.4 #198Turnovers forced15.7 #238
67.8 #269Defensive rebound rate71.2 #93
6.2 #217Steals per game6.0 #235
5.5 #8Blocks per game3.8 #100
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

USC

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Washington79–83
  • Lvs UCLA68–89
  • L@ Washington72–91
  • Lvs Nebraska67–82
  • L@ UCLA62–81

A week or more of rest.

Wichita St

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Tulsa79–83
  • W@ Oklahoma St96–70
  • Wvs Wyoming74–70
  • Lvs South Florida55–70
  • Wvs Tulsa81–68

A week or more of rest.