1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 12
  3. MERC @ PSU
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 12

Mercyhurst Lakers at Penn State Nittany Lions

Bryce Jordan Center · at Penn State
#331MERCMercyhurst
@
#78PSUPenn State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MERCThis seasonPSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PSU 85–63 · win probability PSU 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PSU has more of the edges

MERC 3, PSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
MERC has played the 356th-hardest schedule, PSU the 63rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
PSUBig
MERC offense vs PSU defense
Offense 346th of 366 against a defense 101st, on the model’s ratings
PSUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MERC 25.6, PSU 33.8. Allowed: MERC 42.6, PSU 27.5
PSUBig
PSU offense vs MERC defense
Offense 70th of 366 against a defense 272nd, on the model’s ratings
MERCBig
Three-pointers
MERC hits 32.1% and allows 32.3%; PSU hits 32.4% and allows 38.8%. Threes are 31.1% and 38.0% of their shots
MERCSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MERC 14.3%, PSU 15.6%. Forced: MERC 18.6%, PSU 17.7%
PSUSmall
Home court
PSU at home. This season: PSU 0-0 at home, MERC 0-0 away
MERCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MERC 49.5 and allows 50.1; PSU 53.0 and allows 58.4
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: MERC plays 65.6 a game (327th fastest), PSU 67.5 (255th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MERC 26.4%, PSU 25.9%. Defensive: MERC 70.1%, PSU 68.8%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MERC 26%, PSU 27%. Transfers in: MERC 3, PSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PSU -22.5—
Total—147.6—
Projected score—MERC 62.5 · PSU 85

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPSU -13.3—
1H total69.0—
1H projected scoreMERC 27.9 · PSU 41.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Penn State has the better starters

Position by position: Mercyhurst 1, Penn State 3, even 1
MercyhurstBetterPenn State
G J. Lemelman14.4 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61
MERCSmall
G D. Bowen TR11.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.9 ast Score 45
G D. Kelly TR5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 6
PSUBig
G J. Rodgers TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 6.9 ast Score 49
G M. Jackson TR0.5 pts · 2 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
F B. Byers TR14.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55
F T. Rainwater TR9.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 48
PSUSmall
F J. Reed11.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 82
F C. Johnson2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 2
PSUBig
F I. Juric10.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 61
MercyhurstBetterPenn State
MERC offense346th of 366 · -11.9
PSUBig
PSU defense101st of 366 · -0.8
MERC defense272nd of 366 · -6.9
PSUBig
PSU offense70th of 366 · +1.7
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
PSUSmall
Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players
Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players
PSUBig
Frontcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Bench-0.9 · 3 players
PSUBig
Bench+2.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestMERC betterPSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mercyhurst
Guards
J. Lemelman31 minD. Kelly21 min · TRM. Jackson7 min · TRO. Faran4 minB. Conner3 minM. Maxwell-GrimesNew
Forwards
T. Rainwater25 min · TRC. Johnson12 minC. Leman2 minD. AgbaosiNewS. KirkerNew
Penn State
Guards
D. Bowen35 min · TRJ. Rodgers30 min · TRR. Blums23 min · TRT. AllardNewR. GrodinNewA. GemaoNew
Forwards
B. Byers32 min · TRJ. Reed28 minI. Juric26 minT. Oboh22 min · TRR. PrkacinNewF. WibautNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MERCPSU
Scoring
68.3 #310Points per game73.7 #211
1.04 #260Points per possession1.09 #148
65.6 #327Pace (possessions)67.5 #255
Shooting
49.5 #269Effective FG%53.0 #102
32.1 #2763-point %32.4 #263
31.1 #3383-point attempt rate38.0 #214
25.6 #361Free throw rate33.8 #219
Possessions
14.3 #35Turnover rate15.6 #113
26.4 #312Offensive rebound rate25.9 #325
14.0 #148Assists per game12.7 #238
Defense
68.7 #43Points allowed79.3 #308
1.04 #76Points allowed per possession1.17 #345
50.1 #107Opponent effective FG%58.4 #363
32.3 #80Opponent 3-point %38.8 #363
18.6 #68Turnovers forced17.7 #115
70.1 #153Defensive rebound rate68.8 #210
7.0 #130Steals per game6.9 #132
3.8 #94Blocks per game1.7 #357
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercyhurst

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island70–79
  • Wvs Stonehill56–51
  • Wvs FDU70–61
  • W@ Stonehill75–72
  • L@ C Connecticut78–80

A week or more of rest.

Penn State

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Northwestern66–76
  • L@ Rutgers62–74
  • Lvs Ohio State62–94
  • Wvs Iowa71–69
  • L@ Nebraska64–87

A week or more of rest.