Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Indiana Hoosiers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 12, 6:30 PM ETSimon Skjodt Assembly Hall · at Indiana

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Tennessee Tech and Indiana
TNTC	This season	IU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IU 89–62 · win probability IU 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IU has more of the edges

TNTC 1, IU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

TNTC has played the 353rd-hardest schedule, IU the 48th. A record against a soft schedule means less

IUBig

IU offense vs TNTC defense

Offense 41st of 366 against a defense 288th, on the model’s ratings

IUBig

TNTC offense vs IU defense

Offense 276th of 366 against a defense 38th, on the model’s ratings

IUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: TNTC 48.9 and allows 51.5; IU 56.1 and allows 49.0

IUBig

Three-pointers

TNTC hits 31.1% and allows 35.8%; IU hits 34.7% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 36.5% and 50.5% of their shots

IUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TNTC 19.1%, IU 15.1%. Forced: TNTC 15.0%, IU 15.1%

TNTCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TNTC 35.5, IU 35.0. Allowed: TNTC 31.3, IU 37.0

IUSmall

Home court

IU at home. This season: IU 0-0 at home, TNTC 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TNTC 31.3%, IU 26.9%. Defensive: TNTC 69.3%, IU 70.8%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: TNTC plays 68.3 a game (214th fastest), IU 67.4 (260th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TNTC 18%, IU 19%. Transfers in: TNTC 6, IU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	IU -26.6	—
Total	—	150.7	—
Projected score	—	TNTC 62.1 · IU 88.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IU -15.7	—
1H total	70.5	—
1H projected score	TNTC 27.4 · IU 43.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TNTC WWWLL	14-14	50%	9-8	—
IU LLWLL	14-18	44%	9-9	—

Venue/role: TNTC away; IU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TNTC OUUUO	14-14	50%	10-18
IU UUUOU	14-18	44%	18-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TNTC	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
IU	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tennessee Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ UNCA	L55–61LU
Nov 21	vs PRES	W90–75WO
Nov 24	vs WGA	W87–59WU

Indiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs ARK	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs UK	L60–72LU
Nov 24	vs JAX	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tennessee Tech

28 games played

Straight up

10-18

36% wins

Against the spread

14-14

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-14

50% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1836%

L L L W L L L W W L L L L W L L L L W W W L L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1450%

W W L W L L W W W L L L L W L L L W W W W L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1450%

U U U O O O O U O O O U U U U O O U O O O U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WKU	L 70-82	+14.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 7	@CLT	L 65-70	+12.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 135
Nov 17	vsWGA	L 59-61	-4.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 120
Nov 19	@UPST	W 88-84	+2.5	W +6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 26	@UK	L 54-104	+37.5	L −12.5	157.5	O 158
Nov 29	@UGA	L 81-123	+34.5	L −7.5	160.5	O 204
Dec 3	@LIP	L 80-83	+10.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 163
Dec 6	@WGA	W 87-59	+1.5	W +29.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 18	vsSEMO	W 85-74	+2.5	W +13.5	155.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsUTM	L 62-86	+2.5	L −21.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 30	vsTNST	L 76-88	+1.5	L −10.5	155.5	O 164
Jan 1	@LR	L 58-77	+1.5	L −17.5	144.5	U 135
Jan 8	@EIU	L 61-71	-1.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 10	@WIU	W 59-54	-3.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 15	vsUSI	L 54-71	-5.5	L −22.5	142.5	U 125
Jan 17	vsMORE	L 70-76	-1.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 146
Jan 22	@LIN	L 68-89	+8.5	L −12.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	@SIUE	L 58-62	+7.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 120
Jan 31	vsLR	W 87-77	+1.5	W +11.5	141.5	O 164
Feb 2	@TNST	W 90-85	+7.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 175
Feb 5	vsWIU	W 97-72	-9.5	W +15.5	143.5	O 169
Feb 7	vsEIU	L 54-60	-4.5	L −10.5	140.5	U 114
Feb 12	@MORE	L 66-73	+4.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 139
Feb 14	@USI	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 156
Feb 19	vsSIUE	W 62-52	+1.5	W +11.5	134.5	U 114
Feb 21	vsLIN	W 72-57	+1.5	W +16.5	151.5	U 129
Feb 26	@UTM	L 49-64	+7.5	L −7.5	134.5	U 113
Feb 28	@SEMO	L 73-89	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WKU

L 70-82

+2.5

CLT

L 65-70

+7.5

WGA

L 59-61

−6.5

UPST

W 88-84

+6.5

L 54-104

−12.5

UGA

L 81-123

−7.5

LIP

L 80-83

+7.5

WGA

W 87-59

+29.5

SEMO

W 85-74

+13.5

UTM

L 62-86

−21.5

TNST

L 76-88

−10.5

L 58-77

−17.5

EIU

L 61-71

−11.5

WIU

W 59-54

+1.5

USI

L 54-71

−22.5

L 70-76

−7.5

LIN

L 68-89

−12.5

SIUE

L 58-62

+3.5

W 87-77

+11.5

TNST

W 90-85

+12.5

WIU

W 97-72

+15.5

EIU

L 54-60

−10.5

L 66-73

−2.5

USI

W 82-74

+6.5

SIUE

W 62-52

+11.5

LIN

W 72-57

+16.5

UTM

L 49-64

−7.5

SEMO

L 73-89

−8.5

covered 14didn’t cover 14avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WKU

L 70-82

−1.5

CLT

L 65-70

−11.5

WGA

L 59-61

−32.5

UPST

W 88-84

+21.5

L 54-104

+0.5

UGA

L 81-123

+43.5

LIP

L 80-83

+10.5

WGA

W 87-59

−4.5

SEMO

W 85-74

+3.5

UTM

L 62-86

+2.5

TNST

L 76-88

+8.5

L 58-77

−9.5

EIU

L 61-71

−8.5

WIU

W 59-54

−30.5

USI

L 54-71

−17.5

L 70-76

+4.5

LIN

L 68-89

+5.5

SIUE

L 58-62

−15.5

W 87-77

+22.5

TNST

W 90-85

+21.5

WIU

W 97-72

+25.5

EIU

L 54-60

−26.5

L 66-73

−4.5

USI

W 82-74

+15.5

SIUE

W 62-52

−20.5

LIN

W 72-57

−22.5

UTM

L 49-64

−21.5

SEMO

L 73-89

+20.5

over 14under 14avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W L L L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W W L L W W L L W L L L W W L L L W W W W L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O O U U U O U O O U U U O O O U U U U U O O U O U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsAAMU	W 98-51	-30.5	W +16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 9	vsMARQ	W 100-77	-3.5	W +19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsMILW	W 101-70	-24.5	W +6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 16	vsUIW	W 69-61	-28.5	L −20.5	157.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsLIN	W 73-53	-32.5	L −12.5	155.5	U 126
Nov 25	vsKSU	W 86-69	-10.5	W +6.5	164.5	U 155
Nov 29	vsBCU	W 100-56	-29.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 156
Dec 3	@MINN	L 64-73	-7.5	L −16.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsLOU	L 78-87	+3.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 9	vsPSU	W 113-72	-14.5	W +26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	@UK	L 60-72	+3.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsCHST	W 78-58	-38.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 136
Dec 22	vsSIE	W 81-60	-21.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 4	vsWASH	W 90-80	-9.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 7	@MD	W 84-66	-7.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsNEB	L 77-83	-4.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 13	@MSU	L 60-81	+6.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsIOWA	L 57-74	-3.5	L −20.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 20	@MICH	L 72-86	+15.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 158
Jan 23	@RUTG	W 82-59	-7.5	W +15.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 27	vsPUR	W 72-67	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 31	@UCLA	W 98-97	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 195
Feb 3	@USC	L 75-81	-1.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 156
Feb 7	vsWIS	W 78-77	-3.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 9	vsORE	W 92-74	-10.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 166
Feb 15	@ILL	L 51-71	+8.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 122
Feb 20	@PUR	L 64-93	+11.5	L −17.5	150.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsNU	L 68-72	-9.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 1	vsMSU	L 64-77	+2.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 141
Mar 4	vsMINN	W 77-47	-7.5	W +22.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	@OSU	L 78-91	+3.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 169
Mar 11	vsNU	L 61-74	-6.5	L −19.5	142.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+16.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+19.5

MILW

W 101-70

+6.5

UIW

W 69-61

−20.5

LIN

W 73-53

−12.5

KSU

W 86-69

+6.5

BCU

W 100-56

+14.5

MINN

L 64-73

−16.5

LOU

L 78-87

−5.5

PSU

W 113-72

+26.5

L 60-72

−8.5

CHST

W 78-58

−18.5

SIE

W 81-60

−0.5

WASH

W 90-80

+0.5

W 84-66

+10.5

NEB

L 77-83

−10.5

MSU

L 60-81

−14.5

IOWA

L 57-74

−20.5

MICH

L 72-86

+1.5

RUTG

W 82-59

+15.5

PUR

W 72-67

+9.5

UCLA

W 98-97

+4.5

USC

L 75-81

−7.5

WIS

W 78-77

−2.5

ORE

W 92-74

+7.5

ILL

L 51-71

−11.5

PUR

L 64-93

−17.5

L 68-72

−13.5

MSU

L 64-77

−10.5

MINN

W 77-47

+22.5

OSU

L 78-91

−9.5

L 61-74

−19.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+1.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+20.5

MILW

W 101-70

+5.5

UIW

W 69-61

−27.5

LIN

W 73-53

−29.5

KSU

W 86-69

−9.5

BCU

W 100-56

+7.5

MINN

L 64-73

−7.5

LOU

L 78-87

+2.5

PSU

W 113-72

+32.5

L 60-72

−24.5

CHST

W 78-58

−16.5

SIE

W 81-60

−4.5

WASH

W 90-80

+17.5

W 84-66

+2.5

NEB

L 77-83

+9.5

MSU

L 60-81

−4.5

IOWA

L 57-74

−15.5

MICH

L 72-86

−5.5

RUTG

W 82-59

−6.5

PUR

W 72-67

−11.5

UCLA

W 98-97

+50.5

USC

L 75-81

+2.5

WIS

W 78-77

−2.5

ORE

W 92-74

+22.5

ILL

L 51-71

−31.5

PUR

L 64-93

+6.5

L 68-72

−5.5

MSU

L 64-77

−3.5

MINN

W 77-47

−14.5

OSU

L 78-91

+20.5

L 61-74

−7.5

over 14under 18avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Indiana has the better starters

Position by position: Tennessee Tech 0, Indiana 4, even 1

Tennessee TechBetterIndiana

G T. Mosquera TR13.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.3 ast Score 55

IUBig

G M. Burton TR18.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.7 ast Score 98

G T. Owens7.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17

IUBig

G B. Lindsay TR12.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 75

G D. Hackett TR13.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 78

Even

G J. Mustaf TR10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 65

G C. Newton TR10.5 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 55

IUBig

F A. Sherrell TR11.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98

G C. Hollenbeck TR5 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 6

IUBig

C S. Yigitoglu TR10.7 pts · 7.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 64

Tennessee TechBetterIndiana

TNTC offense276th of 366 · -8.4

IUBig

IU defense38th of 366 · +3.0

TNTC defense288th of 366 · -7.2

IUBig

IU offense41st of 366 · +4.8

Backcourt-4.8 · 5 players

IUBig

Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

IUSmall

Bench+0.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTNTC betterIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Tennessee Tech

Guards

T. Mosquera32 min · TRT. Owens28 minD. Hackett28 min · TRC. Newton26 min · TRC. Hollenbeck17 min · TRC. GonzalesNew

Forwards

D. Christensen13 min · TRM. Turner8 minC. Sanders8 min · TRD. GreenNewS. ArnoldNewK. FoxNew

Indiana

Guards

M. Burton30 min · TRB. Lindsay29 min · TRJ. Mustaf28 min · TRJ. Monden21 min · TRD. Harris10 min · TRD. Snively2 min

Forwards

A. Sherrell24 min · TRS. Alexis21 minT. Sisley13 minB. Winker3 min · TRV. KarvalaNewT. ManhertzNew

Centers

S. Yigitoglu29 min · TRC. SokolovNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TNTC70.3 #280

IU78.2 #93

Points per possession

TNTC1.03 #287

IU1.16 #46

Pace (possessions)

TNTC68.3 #214

IU67.4 #260

Shooting

Effective FG%

TNTC48.9 #293

IU56.1 #22

3-point %

TNTC31.1 #316

IU34.7 #138

3-point attempt rate

TNTC36.5 #238

IU50.5 #14

Free throw rate

TNTC35.5 #164

IU35.0 #179

Possessions

Turnover rate

TNTC19.1 #325

IU15.1 #71

Offensive rebound rate

TNTC31.3 #151

IU26.9 #300

Assists per game

TNTC11.0 #337

IU16.6 #34

Defense

Points allowed

TNTC75.6 #207

IU72.2 #109

Points allowed per possession

TNTC1.11 #231

IU1.07 #131

Opponent effective FG%

TNTC51.5 #186

IU49.0 #68

Opponent 3-point %

TNTC35.8 #295

IU33.1 #128

Turnovers forced

TNTC15.0 #285

IU15.1 #284

Defensive rebound rate

TNTC69.3 #192

IU70.8 #122

Steals per game

TNTC5.4 #312

IU4.7 #348

Blocks per game

TNTC2.7 #275

IU2.7 #278

TNTC		IU
Scoring
70.3 #280	Points per game	78.2 #93
1.03 #287	Points per possession	1.16 #46
68.3 #214	Pace (possessions)	67.4 #260
Shooting
48.9 #293	Effective FG%	56.1 #22
31.1 #316	3-point %	34.7 #138
36.5 #238	3-point attempt rate	50.5 #14
35.5 #164	Free throw rate	35.0 #179
Possessions
19.1 #325	Turnover rate	15.1 #71
31.3 #151	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #300
11.0 #337	Assists per game	16.6 #34
Defense
75.6 #207	Points allowed	72.2 #109
1.11 #231	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #131
51.5 #186	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #68
35.8 #295	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #128
15.0 #285	Turnovers forced	15.1 #284
69.3 #192	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #122
5.4 #312	Steals per game	4.7 #348
2.7 #275	Blocks per game	2.7 #278

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tennessee Tech

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ SE Missouri73–89
L@ UT Martin49–64
Wvs Lindenwood Lions72–57
Wvs SIUE62–52
W@ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles82–74

A week or more of rest.

Indiana

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northwestern61–74
L@ Ohio State78–91
Wvs Minnesota77–47
Lvs Michigan St64–77
Lvs Northwestern68–72

A week or more of rest.

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Indiana Hoosiers

What could decide it: IU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Tennessee Tech

Indiana

Indiana has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Tennessee Tech

Indiana