1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. SUU @ WAKE
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

LJVM Coliseum · at Wake Forest
#267SUUSouthern Utah
@
#89WAKEWake Forest
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SUUThis seasonWAKE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WAKE 87–69 · win probability WAKE 94%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 155.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WAKE has more of the edges

SUU 0, WAKE 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WAKEBig
WAKE offense vs SUU defense
Offense 80th of 366 against a defense 329th, on the model’s ratings
WAKEBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SUU 20.3%, WAKE 15.5%. Forced: SUU 14.8%, WAKE 17.7%
WAKEBig
Three-pointers
SUU hits 33.0% and allows 38.0%; WAKE hits 34.1% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 35.5% and 43.6% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
SUU has played the 186th-hardest schedule, WAKE the 64th. A record against a soft schedule means less
WAKEBig
SUU offense vs WAKE defense
Offense 211th of 366 against a defense 96th, on the model’s ratings
WAKESmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SUU 50.8 and allows 53.3; WAKE 52.7 and allows 51.8
WAKESmall
Home court
WAKE at home. This season: WAKE 0-0 at home, SUU 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SUU 33.1, WAKE 35.2. Allowed: SUU 29.8, WAKE 35.7
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SUU 27%, WAKE 9%. Transfers in: SUU 1, WAKE 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SUU 28.8%, WAKE 30.1%. Defensive: SUU 66.4%, WAKE 67.0%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: SUU plays 71.2 a game (62nd fastest), WAKE 70.2 (112th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WAKE -17.9—
Total—155.1—
Projected score—SUU 68.6 · WAKE 86.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWAKE -10.5—
1H total72.5—
1H projected scoreSUU 31 · WAKE 41.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Southern Utah has the better starters

Position by position: Southern Utah 2, Wake Forest 1, even 2
Southern UtahBetterWake Forest
G B. Johnson0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Kennedy TR18.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 4.2 ast Score 91
G Z. Kidd0.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Ray TR11.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 56
F J. Feroah14 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87
SUUBig
G J. McDowell TR3.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 40
F J. Nicholls TR10.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 95
SUUBig
F R. Nyeri TR8.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 34
F C. Barclay4.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 8
WAKEBig
F X. Pintelon TR5.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 47
Southern UtahBetterWake Forest
SUU offense211th of 366 · -6.4
WAKESmall
WAKE defense96th of 366 · -0.5
SUU defense329th of 366 · -8.6
WAKEBig
WAKE offense80th of 366 · +0.5
Backcourt-0.4 · 2 players
WAKESmall
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.8 · 3 players
SUUBig
Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSUU betterWAKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Southern Utah
Guards
B. Johnson4 minZ. Kidd3 minD. SandersNewA. BrelandNewJ. BrownNewC. DegraffenriedNew
Forwards
J. Feroah31 minJ. Nicholls18 min · TRC. Barclay16 minJ. RiakNewJ. NichollsNewD. SmithNew
Centers
M. ProtsenkoNew
Wake Forest
Guards
K. Kennedy37 min · TRJ. Ray29 min · TRJ. McDowell17 min · TRI. Carr13 minA. Beard2 minW. Underwood2 min
Forwards
R. Nyeri26 min · TRX. Pintelon18 min · TRV. Ricchiuti2 minJ. AbsonNewV. ChaudhriNewG. PlacideNew
Centers
A. Dorn9 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SUUWAKE
Scoring
72.3 #235Points per game78.8 #83
1.01 #310Points per possession1.12 #94
71.2 #62Pace (possessions)70.2 #112
Shooting
50.8 #200Effective FG%52.7 #117
33.0 #2313-point %34.1 #166
35.5 #2613-point attempt rate43.6 #99
33.1 #235Free throw rate35.2 #170
Possessions
20.3 #352Turnover rate15.5 #107
28.8 #239Offensive rebound rate30.1 #196
12.9 #223Assists per game14.4 #123
Defense
81.3 #335Points allowed76.9 #239
1.14 #308Points allowed per possession1.10 #214
53.3 #276Opponent effective FG%51.8 #202
38.0 #358Opponent 3-point %32.9 #117
14.8 #302Turnovers forced17.7 #114
66.4 #309Defensive rebound rate67.0 #298
5.2 #317Steals per game7.7 #59
4.1 #60Blocks per game3.5 #136
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Utah

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UT Arlington63–69
  • Lvs CA Baptist75–82
  • Lvs Utah Valley88–92
  • Wvs Utah Tech81–67
  • L@ Abilene Chrstn83–87

A week or more of rest.

Wake Forest

18-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois St75–78
  • Wvs Navy82–72
  • Lvs Clemson62–71
  • Wvs Virginia Tech95–89
  • Wvs California80–73

A week or more of rest.