1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. BELL @ M-OH
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Bellarmine Knights at Miami (OH) RedHawks

Millett Hall · at Miami OH
#295BELLBellarmine
@
#125M-OHMiami OH
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BELLThis seasonM-OH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects M-OH 88–72 · win probability M-OH 91%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 159.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: M-OH has more of the edges

BELL 0, M-OH 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
M-OHBig
M-OH offense vs BELL defense
Offense 100th of 366 against a defense 345th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: BELL plays 66.7 a game (288th fastest), M-OH 72.1 (33rd). Faster games mean more points
M-OHBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BELL 22.4%, M-OH 25.5%. Defensive: BELL 65.8%, M-OH 71.3%
M-OHBig
Three-pointers
BELL hits 38.1% and allows 40.4%; M-OH hits 37.1% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 41.2% and 45.6% of their shots
M-OHSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BELL 15.4%, M-OH 14.3%. Forced: BELL 15.1%, M-OH 17.4%
M-OHSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: BELL 35.0, M-OH 39.6. Allowed: BELL 34.3, M-OH 30.2
M-OHSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: BELL 59.4 and allows 59.4; M-OH 58.6 and allows 51.2
M-OHSmall
Home court
M-OH at home. This season: M-OH 0-0 at home, BELL 0-0 away
Even
BELL offense vs M-OH defense
Offense 239th of 366 against a defense 207th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
BELL has played the 229th-hardest schedule, M-OH the 207th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BELL 56%, M-OH 65%. Transfers in: BELL 1, M-OH 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—M-OH -15.7—
Total—159.6—
Projected score—BELL 72 · M-OH 87.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadM-OH -9.2—
1H total74.6—
1H projected scoreBELL 32.7 · M-OH 41.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Miami OH has the better starters

Position by position: Bellarmine 0, Miami OH 5, even 0
BellarmineBetterMiami OH
G K. Goodin11.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 31
M-OHBig
G E. Ipsaro14.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 85
G T. Doyle10 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 35
M-OHSmall
G L. Skaljac10.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.6 ast Score 61
F S. Donald6.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12
M-OHBig
G S. Elam TR10.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 64
F J. Wassler3.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 4
M-OHBig
F R. Rolf TR8.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 51
F T. Tornatta TR3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 26
M-OHBig
F A. Woolfolk10 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76
BellarmineBetterMiami OH
BELL offense239th of 366 · -7.3
Even
M-OH defense207th of 366 · -5.2
BELL defense345th of 366 · -9.2
M-OHBig
M-OH offense100th of 366 · -0.9
Backcourt-3.8 · 2 players
M-OHBig
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-4.9 · 3 players
M-OHBig
Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
Even
Bench-2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBELL betterM-OH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bellarmine
Guards
K. Goodin33 minT. Doyle28 minG. Whitaker7 minG. Neal3 minT. Clark2 minJ. GizziNew
Forwards
S. Donald27 minJ. Wassler12 minT. Tornatta9 min · TRA. McAfeeNewB. KlopfensteinNewE. HarrellNew
Miami OH
Guards
E. Ipsaro30 minL. Skaljac29 minS. Elam26 min · TRJ. Kirby17 minB. AndersonNewL. StowersNew
Forwards
R. Rolf27 min · TRA. Woolfolk24 minP. Copeland19 min · TRA. Atlason19 minK. Waltz5 minT. Robbins5 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BELLM-OH
Scoring
78.9 #80Points per game86.3 #10
1.18 #34Points per possession1.20 #15
66.7 #288Pace (possessions)72.1 #33
Shooting
59.4 #3Effective FG%58.6 #6
38.1 #173-point %37.1 #25
41.2 #1453-point attempt rate45.6 #55
35.0 #178Free throw rate39.6 #64
Possessions
15.4 #100Turnover rate14.3 #36
22.4 #354Offensive rebound rate25.5 #332
14.8 #98Assists per game15.1 #80
Defense
83.3 #350Points allowed76.5 #229
1.25 #365Points allowed per possession1.06 #102
59.4 #365Opponent effective FG%51.2 #167
40.4 #364Opponent 3-point %33.1 #131
15.1 #277Turnovers forced17.4 #128
65.8 #320Defensive rebound rate71.3 #92
5.8 #255Steals per game7.0 #124
1.7 #356Blocks per game3.1 #202
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bellarmine

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs C Arkansas73–86
  • Wvs Jacksonville82–79
  • Wvs Austin Peay111–97
  • L@ North Alabama68–73
  • Lvs E Kentucky92–95

A week or more of rest.

Miami OH

29-2 in 2025-26 overall · 18-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee56–78
  • Wvs SMU89–79
  • Lvs UMass83–87
  • W@ Ohio110–108
  • Wvs Toledo74–72

A week or more of rest.