1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. MORE @ LOU
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Morehead State Eagles at Louisville Cardinals

KFC Yum! Center · at Louisville
#350MOREMorehead St
@
#14LOULouisville AP #11
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MOREThis seasonLOU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LOU 95–55 · win probability LOU 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LOU has more of the edges

MORE 0, LOU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
LOUBig
MORE offense vs LOU defense
Offense 349th of 366 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
LOUBig
LOU offense vs MORE defense
Offense 15th of 366 against a defense 333rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MORE has played the 346th-hardest schedule, LOU the 44th. A record against a soft schedule means less
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Three-pointers
MORE hits 32.0% and allows 34.5%; LOU hits 36.0% and allows 32.3%. Threes are 30.5% and 52.9% of their shots
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Shooting
Effective FG%: MORE 49.1 and allows 50.2; LOU 56.5 and allows 48.7
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Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MORE 35.8%, LOU 32.8%. Defensive: MORE 64.2%, LOU 72.5%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MORE plays 67.4 a game (262nd fastest), LOU 71.0 (77th). Faster games mean more points
LOUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MORE 18.1%, LOU 16.8%. Forced: MORE 15.4%, LOU 16.7%
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Home court
LOU at home. This season: LOU 0-0 at home, MORE 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MORE 29%, LOU 12%. Transfers in: MORE 0, LOU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MORE 37.7, LOU 33.1. Allowed: MORE 35.6, LOU 33.0
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LOU -39.9—
Total—150.1—
Projected score—MORE 55.1 · LOU 95

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLOU -23.6—
1H total70.2—
1H projected scoreMORE 23.3 · LOU 46.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Louisville has the better starters

Position by position: Morehead St 0, Louisville 3, even 2
Morehead StBetterLouisville
G C. Dawson8.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 22
LOUBig
G J. Shelstad TR15.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.9 ast Score 92
G V. Dawson3.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 7
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G S. Trimble TR14 pts · 3.8 reb · 3 ast Score 90
G J. Winkleman1 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G D. Montgomery TR13.4 pts · 4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 92
G I. Day NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F F. Bidunga TR13.3 pts · 9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 99
F C. Parker2.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 1
LOUBig
F L. Wells TR15.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 85
Morehead StBetterLouisville
MORE offense349th of 366 · -12.3
LOUBig
LOU defense16th of 366 · +6.2
MORE defense333rd of 366 · -8.7
LOUBig
LOU offense15th of 366 · +9.3
Backcourt-4.4 · 4 players
LOUBig
Backcourt+9.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.7 · 1 player
LOUBig
Frontcourt+9.2 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMORE betterLOU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Morehead St
Guards
C. Dawson26 minV. Dawson16 minJ. Winkleman1 minI. DayNewK. CarbonNewK. ShawNew
Forwards
C. Parker16 minD. AlexanderNewL. BassNewT. TangioraNewJ. PriesterNew
Louisville
Guards
J. Shelstad35 min · TRS. Trimble33 min · TRD. Montgomery31 min · TRA. Wooley23 minK. Knox22 min · TRW. Hanke1 min
Forwards
F. Bidunga32 min · TRL. Wells31 min · TRA. Folgueiras21 min · TRB. ZhangNew
Centers
G. Dynes12 min · TRO. EkezieNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MORELOU
Scoring
72.0 #243Points per game84.2 #18
1.07 #202Points per possession1.18 #29
67.4 #262Pace (possessions)71.0 #77
Shooting
49.1 #285Effective FG%56.5 #14
32.0 #2813-point %36.0 #58
30.5 #3493-point attempt rate52.9 #4
37.7 #109Free throw rate33.1 #236
Possessions
18.1 #275Turnover rate16.8 #184
35.8 #27Offensive rebound rate32.8 #93
12.0 #285Assists per game17.1 #23
Defense
75.5 #205Points allowed72.5 #119
1.12 #264Points allowed per possession1.02 #49
50.2 #109Opponent effective FG%48.7 #54
34.5 #221Opponent 3-point %32.3 #76
15.4 #259Turnovers forced16.7 #172
64.2 #351Defensive rebound rate72.5 #50
6.0 #234Steals per game6.8 #148
3.0 #213Blocks per game3.3 #179
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Morehead St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 16-6 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee St67–93
  • Wvs SE Missouri66–61
  • W@ Little Rock76–70
  • Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles64–63
  • W@ W Illinois81–59

A week or more of rest.

Louisville

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan St69–77
  • Wvs South Florida83–79
  • Lvs Miami73–78
  • Wvs SMU62–58
  • W@ Miami92–89

A week or more of rest.